Good evening one and all!
This week was a little more timid than I thought it would be,
as regards the stock market that is.
But then again I am looking for a turn down in stocks that should last well into the summer at least.
So if it is a few weeks late in beginning,
I will just have to grin and bear it!
As for the rest of the markets,
I am willing to switch to a more bullish outlook in gold and silver.
And the FX market is signalling a short term turn against the USD beginning now.
Things are heating up,
so lets see what is in store for next week.
By the way,
John Hussman just released his latest take on everything!
Its worth the 15 mins to chew it up.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc200420/
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
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EURUSD daily.
I am still running with the idea that the current decline is wave [b] of a larger wave ‘2’.
Wave [b] has reached the minimum target by making a new low in wave (c) of [b] yesterday,
but the internal pattern in wave (c) is not satisfactory just yet.
Monday;
I want to see another drop in wave (c) and a five wave pattern into a low at about 1.0550.
Wave ‘ii’ my be completing a running flat now,
so watch for wave ‘iii’ of (c) to drop again on Monday,
wave ‘iii’ should hit the close to the 1.06 level before wave ‘iv’ begins.
GBPUSD
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GBPUSD daily.
Cable is pretty flat today again!
The price made an effort earlier in the week to drop into wave (i),
but we have hit a brick wall at this 1.2300 handle.
I am looking at a possible triangle in wave ‘iv’ pink as shown.
That does require wave ‘v’ to drop again by Monday evening to complete five waves down.
Monday;
The correction in wave ‘iv’ must hold below 1.2436.
If that level breaks
it will rule out the short term count.
And then I will have to seriously consider the alternate count I spoke about in the video.
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (i) to push lower into 1.2160.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is still moving in tight ranging formation today.
The price should have completed the triangle in wave [iv] at Thursdays high.
That high sits at 108.03.
So that high must now hold as wave [v] develops.
We can view todays small decline as the beginning of wave [v].
If we see a break of 106.90 on Monday that will confirm wave [v] has begun.
Monday;
Watch for wave [iv] to hold at 108.03.
106.90 is the level to watch to confirm wave [v].
DOW JONES.
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We are rolling into the close now and the market is creating yet another lower high.
In general this weeks action has been in favor of the bearish count.
Wave [i] down seems complete at this weeks low.
The price fell 1500 points int that low,
so it has the scale which you would expect.
But as always with a correction,
there are a few ways we can interpret the pattern that is developing in wave [ii].
1; wave [ii] is already complete and we are now cycling lower to begin wave [iii].
2; wave [ii] is still underway and we will see a larger flat correction develop over the next few days.
I am working on the first interpretation now.
This count is immediately bearish because of the possibility that wave (iii) of [iii] is dead ahead.
Monday;
Wave (iii) of [iii] will be confirmed with a sharp and sustained break of 22900 at the wave [i] low.
In this case the high at wave [ii] must hold.
Things could get very wild to the downside next week if this setup is correct.
So I am being very cautious
GOLD
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Gold has come off the boil today and the price is falling this evening.
So far I am viewing this as a decline in wave (c) of [ii].
But there is a bullish alternate idea that is brewing in the background.
I spoke about the possibility for a bullish move next week in the video.
So I am open to that early next week.
At the moment,
I still believe it is worth holding with the conservative wave [ii] count
until the price action tells us otherwise.
Monday;
Wave [ii] should find support at 1657 by the middle of next week.
And then I will switch focus to the upside in wave [iii].
An impulsive rally out above 1750 early next week will favor the bullish interpretation.
CRUDE OIL.
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CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude has rallied in three waves into the wave ‘A’ high this week.
Wave ‘A’ might have one more push higher before wave ‘B’ begins,
this shouldn’t last long though,
and the next move will be down in three waves in wave ‘B’ to a higher low around 10.00.
I am working on the idea that wave (4) of [5] is now underway.
Wave (4) should hit the previous fourth wave high at bout 30.00 before completing.
And then wave (5) is open to go all the way down again!
how far?
who knows now that Pandora’s box has been opened with negative pricing.
In the short term,
I am looking for this correction higher to continue for another few weeks first.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘A’ to complete by Monday evening,
and then wave ‘B’ of (4) should decline for most of next week.
Wave ‘C’ has potential as a tradable opportunity if the conditions present itself.
We will see on that front.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is sitting at another lower high this evening also.
I have labelled todays highs as wave (ii) of [iii].
the expectation is for a sharp decline to develop next week in wave (iii) of [iii].
Wave [iii] will be confirmed with a break of 2727 again.
And it should continue lower towards 2640 at a minimum.
There is every chance that we see a break of 2600
before any correction in wave [iv] of ‘1’ begins.
The exact same alternate possibility exists here for wave [ii].
There is the chance that wave [ii] drops in three waves into that lower trend channel line in red.
And then rallies again in wave (c) of [ii] to form a double top at about 2850.
Then wave [iii] down will be on the cards in a big way.
Monday;
I am holding with the most bearish outlook this evening because the risk is quite high now for a decline into wave [iii].
Watch for wave (iii) of [iii] to break below 2727 by Tuesday evening.
And wave [iii] should continue towards the next lower support at 2646 at a minimum.
SILVER.
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SILVER daily.
Wave [b] is close to a top now given the complete stall in upside momentum today.
The rise off wave [a] is classic corrective price action.
The move is slow and choppy and lacking any impulsive structure.
The next move is lower for sure,
but that move is now viewed as a decline in wave [c] of ‘2’,
rather than a drop in wave ‘5’ as previously expected.
So the future is looking a little brighter for silver tonight!
Monday;
Watch for wave [c] to come in with a break of 14.50 at a minimum.
The most likely target for wave ‘2’ lies at 13.79 again.
I hope you all have an enjoyable weekend ahead.
Back into the mire again on Monday for another bite at the downside in wave (C)!
God’s Blessings to one and all.
Cheerio!
enda.