Good evening folks.
I am falling behind on emails these days, so if you are expecting an answer back, don’t worry i will get to you by the weekend I hope!
Ok on with the days action.
I know I have been giving alot of zerohedge links these last few days but when the story is good I can’t help but share it.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bailouts-buoy-stocks-not-animal-spirits
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
I have thrown the cat amongst the pigeons this evening after a day of non action in EURUSD.
The price has dropped this evening and hit the 1.0810 level.
This is the point at which the bullish count is invalidated.
I have now switched to another new wave count this evening for wave [b].
After a few weeks of sideways and contracting action,
it looks like wave (b) of [b] has traced out a triangle at todays high.
Price is falling again this evening and breaking out of the triangle pattern.
This is viewed as the beginning of wave (c) of [b].
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to continue lower towards 1.0630 at the previous wave ‘1’ low.
If wave ‘2’ turns out to be an expanded flat correction,
then wave [b] could hit as low as 1.0540 at the lower trend channel line.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable corrected higher today in a three wave form.
The size of the pattern to the upside is comparable to the size of the previous wave ‘ii’.
And so I have switched the wave ‘iv’ label to the high of todays session.
The price is now falling again this evening.
So we can view this as wave ‘v’ of (i) now underway.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (i) down to complete with a break of 1.2160 in an ideal situation.
A lower high formed in wave (ii) later in the week
should be viewed as a bearish signal to lead the way down into wave (iii) of [v].
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
There is a battle between the short term counts this evening in USDJPY.
And the alternate count for wave ‘C’ is gaining traction.
Todays trade continued sideways and has contracted the price range again.
The rise into todays highs is in three waves so far.
With this in mind,
the alternate count is still very much in play right now.
If we see a break of 108.08 tomorrow,
that will rule out the alternate triangle count.
And then we can concentrate on the larger wave ‘B’.
The confirmation point for the alternate count lies at 106.90.
But if we see price fall below 107.28 overnight,
that will strongly favor the alternate count.
Tomorrow;
Price is falling again off the session high this evening.
So watch that 107.28 level overnight.
The alternate count calls for a drop into the lower trend channel line at about 105.70 to complete wave ‘C’ of (E).
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW has climbed back out of Tuesdays lows so far today.
Although I cant pick out a clear three wave formation to the upside,
the action does look choppy and corrective to the upside,
so I have labelled todays rise as wave (iv) of [i].
This count calls for another drop in wave (v) of [i] by the end of this week.
Wave (v) should drop below 23000 at a minimum,
but I would prefer to see a break of the wave ‘A’ high at 22634 before wave [i] is complete.
Tomorrow;
Wave (iv) should complete below 23700 on the very upper limit.
Watch for wave (v) of [i] to begin tomorrow and fall back below 22940 at a minimum.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold has rallied back above the wave ‘a’ high at 1702 today.
This was the minimum target for wave ‘c’ of (b),
where wave (b) is completing an expanded flat correction and a lower high.
With wave (b) now complete, I am expecting wave (c) to begin soon.
Wave (c) should fall in five waves from here,
and break below the recent low at 1657 at a minimum.
The next support level comes in at 1642,
and I suspect we will see wave (c) complete in that range before the end of the week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) down to begin a five wave decline into support.
When we hit the target area I will then begin to look higher again into wave [iii].
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
I am still trying to piece together the best interpretation of the short term action after this weeks amazing trade.
There is a large discrepancy between my derivative charts and the actual contract price.
So I am filling in the holes in a way.
But,
I think I can present a short term count that fits the action as best as it can.
There is a clear three wave rally in place into todays highs above 16.00.
I am suggesting that this is wave ‘A’ of a larger wave (4) now complete.
The larger wave (4) should trace out a 3,3,5 internal pattern in a flat correction.
And wave ‘C’ of that correction is expected to rally into the previous fourth wave high at about 30.00 to complete the pattern.
We will get clarification on this count if we see a three wave de3cline off todays highs.
That will signal wave ‘B’ is underway.
And then wave ‘C’ is where a solid rally could take place into that target.
It is very early days on this count,
so I will be watching the next few days action to see if it complies!
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘B’ of (4) to begin a three wave decline and form a higher low above 6.50 at todays lows.
A break of 6.50 will invalidate this count.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
This bear market rally will not die an easy death it seems.
The price rallied today in either wave (iv) as shown, or wave (a) of [ii].
In the latter case wave [ii] will trace out a three wave correction to a lower high as expected,
but the action is taking place earlier than expected!
I am keeping a keen eye on this alternate count for sure.
If we see a sharp reversal tomorrow which break below 2723 again,
that will favor the main wave count and wave [ii] will be postponed until next week.
However,
if todays rally hits 2826 at the wave (i) low,
That will favor the alternate count.
And then a large decline in wave [iii] down will be in play very soon.
Tomorrow;
Both interpretations call for wave [iii] down to come our way by next week.
Tonights alternate count will bring forward the date of the next leg down by a few days at least.
Watch for wave (iv) to complete below 2826 and then fall into wave (v) tomorrow.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
The rise in silver today has traced out a clear three wave rally into this evenings highs.
And with that pattern,
the main wave count takes front and center again.
The expectation for a decline into wave (iii) of [iii] is now on the cards again.
I have labelled todays action as wave (ii) of [iii].
Wave (ii) must complete below 15.42 and then head lower again in wave (iii) of [iii].
A break of 14.50 again will signal wave (iii) is underway.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) down to take over and carry us lower for the rest of the week.
I want to see wave [iii] break initial support at 13.77 again.