Good evening to one and all, the week is done and I am about to have a glass of wine, I hope you will too!
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD dropped into the initial support level at the previous wave [b] low this evening.
Wave (iii) has traced out a clear five wave structure now.
So this should be enough to call wave (iii) complete.
And we will likely see some consolidation on Monday in wave (iv) as shown.
Once that correction in wave (iv) completes,
then I want to see another drop into wave (v) to complete wave [i].
I mentioned the short term alternate count in the video this morning.
And I have shown that in a little more detail tonight.
If we see a rally back above 1.0925 on Monday,
that will favor the alternate count.
Monday;
watch for wave (iv) and (v) to complete wave [i] down by Monday evening.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
GBPUSD is still correcting in wave ‘iv’ as it has been all week.
The structure in wave ‘iv’ has developed into a possible flat correction.
the ideal outcome from this pattern is for a rally up in wave ‘v’ above 1.2486 to complete the pattern.
And then wave [v] should turn lower again next week.
Monday;
Watch for this whole correction in wave [iv] to complete by Monday evening.
A drop back below 1.2200 again will signal wave (i) of [v] has begun.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is close to completing wave (c) this evening.
The price has traced out a five wave rally into this evenings highs.
One last push above 108.72 will complete an expanded flat correction in wave [b],
and then we should expect a drop again in wave [c].
Wave [c] is expected to fall down towards the 105.00 handle again to complete wave ‘A’ of (E).
There is an emerging alternate count after this weeks action.
It suggest the whole move off the wave (D) high is actually one degree higher than currently shown.
Both interpretations call for another drop into the 105.00 area over the next week,
so There is now material difference at this point.
Monday;
watch for wave [b] to complete and wave [c] will begin with a break of the low at 106.92.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The main wave count I am working with was calling for a three wave correction sideways in wave ‘B’ this week.
That seems to be exactly what has happened so far.
The internal wave structure supports this idea also,
as we have a pretty clear 3,3,5 flat correction now in place.
I am working on the assumption that wave [c] of ‘B’ is now complete.
So the small spike higher off the weekly low,
suggests that wave [i] and [ii] are now shifting the action higher in wave ‘C’.
Wave ‘C’ is expected to push back up towards the 24000 area when complete.
At that point we will have a bearish lower high in place.
And then I will be looking for a serious decline to begin in wave (C) red.
Wave (C) red could carry the price all the way down below the 15000 level in a five wave move.
Wave (C) will bring with it a raft of bankruptcies across all sectors of the economy.
Dont expect the banking sector to avoid this rout either.
I suspect we will see a series of Lehman type blowups coming our way.
And most likely a number of nationalizations, bond defaults, bank runs etc etc.
The weak players in the market will disappear into history.
Wave (C) will be brutal for everyone.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘C’ to begin with a rally back above 22000 again.
Wave [ii] must hold above 20735.
If that level breaks then wave [c] will complete with one more drop into the 20500 area.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold has stalled in this wave (v) rally today,
but the price is holding above the 1600 level is a corrective pattern.
This pattern is positive at the moment and is likely setting up for another run up next week to complete wave (v).
The action seems to be stuck within wave ‘iii’ of (v).
I suspect wave ‘iii’ needs another push towards 1640 to complete.
The larger wave (v) will likely continue higher in waves ‘iv’ and ‘v’ later next week.
Monday;
watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue towards the previous high at 1642 on Monday.
A break of that level will signal wave ‘v’ of (iv) is underway.
From now on I want to see price hold above the 1600.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude reached a corrective high in wave (c) of [iv] this afternoon.
The price has completed a clear three wave correction over the last few weeks.
Waves (a) and (b) completed in three waves respectively,
and wave (c) rallied in five waves into the session highs today.
If wave [iv] is now done,
then next week should see a return lower again in wave [v] to complete five waves down in wave ‘3’.
Monday;
Watch for the price to fall again back into wave [v] of ‘3’.
Waves (i) and (ii) should create a lower high early next week.
I think a break of the 24.80 level again at wave ‘iv’ pink should signal wave [v] has begun.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is cutting it fine tonight as we hit the closing bell.
But I still think it is worth thinking of this decline as a correction in wave [ii] of ‘C’.
As long as price holds above 2447 early on Monday,
then this count will remain my preferred.
If we see a rally back above the 2540 level on Monday evening,
that should indicate that wave [iii] of ‘C’ has begun.
The larger wave count calls for a three wave rally overall in wave (B).
And the target for wave ‘C’ of (B)lies at about the 50% retracement level of 2788.
If the final low of wave ‘B’ is in already,
then next week looks like an up week for stocks as wave ‘C’ closes out.
As I mentioned in earlier,
this will be a false dawn for the stock market.
and wave (C) down will create havoc in the markets and most likely ruin the balance sheets of many business’.
Monday;
Lets see if wave ‘C’ up can get underway with a rally back above 2540.
2447 must hold first to ensure that wave ‘B’ is complete.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is trading in the tightest range of a lifetime these last few days.
I am still working on the idea that wave (v) of [c] is not yet complete.
Wave (v) should push above 14.68 one more time,
in order to complete the larger pattern in wave ‘4’.
Once that happens,
wave ‘5’ down should get underway.
Monday;
watch for wave (v) to complete.
Wave (v) must hold below 16.38 on the upper end.
A break of that level will signal wave ‘1’ has already begun.