Hello there!
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
Its been a good week for EURUSD as the price has now recovered much of what the previous wave ‘1’ took.
In my book,
this is still a correction higher in wave ‘2’.
The price has reached above the 50% retracement level today,
but the rally has stopped below the 62% retracement level coming into the close this evening.
the best way to read the internal pattern is as a three wave movement.
Where wave [b] traced out a triangle,
and wave [c] is creating an extension higher.
Monday;
watch for wave ‘2’ to top out in this Fib resistance zone.
Wave ‘3’ down should begin early next week with a drop back towards support in wave [i] of ‘3’.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
The rally in cable has developed fast and reached farther than I thought it would to be honest.
Much like EURUSD,
I am still going on the assumption that this is a three wave correction higher in wave [iv] of ‘3’.
And that wave [v] will carry the price back down below 1.1400 again over the coming weeks.
I have changed the internal count within wave [iv] this evening.
It now shows wave (b) as a running flat correction.
and wave (c) has now reached the 162% extension of wave (a).
So this pattern is done at todays highs.
Monday;
Watch for wave [iv] to top out and turn lower early on Monday.
A break of the wave (b) low at 1.1641 will signal wave [v] of ‘3’ is underway.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is very close to completing wave [a] of ‘A’ this evening.
The pattern in wave [a] is extended for sure.
so it is possible that the decline off the wave (D) high, into todays lows,
is actually the larger wave ‘A’ in full.
We will have to wait and see how the correction higher plays out next week to see if that plays out.
Monday;
Watch for wave [b] of ‘A’ to begin a three wave correction back towards the 110 handle again.
Wave [c] of ‘A’ is expected to complete at about the 105.50 level again.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Todays declines look pretty corrective so far.
The initial move lower this morning off the wave ‘A’ high is in three waves.
That takes the wave (a) label.
The price created a lower high this afternoon in wave (b),
wave (c) of [a] is now dropping again and the action looks a little sharper.
So wave [a] seems to be tracing out a 3,3,5 flat correction.
This pattern in wave [a] should complete by Monday evening.
I am looking at the previous fourth wave level at 20650 as a possible target for wave [a].
Monday;
next week is looking like another down week in wave ‘B’ blue as shown.
Wave ‘B’ should fall in three waves overall,
and hold above the extreme low in wave (A) created last week.
That higher low in wave ‘B’ next week will setup a rally in wave ‘C’,
which has the potential to hit 24000 again the following week.
Overall, we are looking at some wild action ahead in wave (B) red.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold has drifted aimlessly today in a very tight trading range.
It is hard to add anything to the outlook tonight,
apart from the idea that wave (iv) is still grinding along.
And will continue to do over the coming few sessions
until we get a completed corrective pattern.
The lows of the previous triangle at 1590 should offer support to this correction in wave (iv).
Monday;
If we see a push higher and a break of 1642 immediatley next monday,
that will signal wave (v) is already underway.
Watch for wave (iv) to complete on Monday either way.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Todays action is not convincing as an impulse wave lower in wave [v].
It looks more likely that the triangle in wave [iv] is still developing.
This evenings lows can be viewed as wave (d) of [iv].
So wave (e) should rise again in three waves on Monday,
and that will complete wave [iv].
The high of wave (c) lies at 25.60,
so wave (e) should complete below that level and then drop back below 20.00 again in wave [v] of ‘3’.
Monday;
watch for wave [iv] to complete below 25.60 by Monday evening.
Then wave [v] will be set to fall into the teens again.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The action in the S&P today is a carbon copy of the DOW.
So todays drop in three waves off the wave ‘A’ high is labelled as wave (a) of [a] of ‘B’.
Where wave [a] will fall in three waves into about 2400 again
to complete the first leg of the larger wave ‘B’ early next week.
Wave ‘B’ should remain in force for at least the next week depending on how the internal pattern plays out.
Monday;
Watch for wave [a] to complete on Monday at about 2400,
with a small correction higher in wave [b] expected on Tuesday.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Wave [c] of ‘4’ is still making its way higher today.
The action is flat over the last couple of sessions
and I think this is still best described as a triangle in wave (iv).
This should lead to a rally in wave (v) by Tuesday to finish the pattern.
If the rally breaks 16.38 next week,
that will signal that a larger turn has begun in silver,
and we may be switching to a more bullish outlook sooner rather than later.
Monday;
Watch for wave (v) of [c] of ‘4’ to top out soon and turn lower into wave ‘5’.
That does it for the week.
God Bless you all,
especially in this strangest of times.
I will be back again on Monday evening.
So until then,
Bon soir.