Good evening folks.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
The relentless nature of the decline this week raises the possibility that we have a larger degree move now underway.
The price has now completely retraced the previous wave ‘C’ blue.
This alone suggests that the current wave is actually wave ‘1’ blue now underway.
I have changed the wave count this evening to reflect this view.
Todays push lower is actually completing wave [iii] of ‘1’.
We should see a three wave correction in wave [iv] over the coming days
and then wave [v] will drop again to complete the full pattern in wave ‘1’.
Tomorrow;
wave (v) of [iii] has completed a five wave internal pattern.
this suggests wave [iii] is done and wave [iv] is ready to retrace higher.
Watch for wave (a) of [iv] to begin tomorrow.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable is trying to turn higher today with a spike off the lows,
but that move has been almost retraced fully this evening.
It is possible that wave [iv] has begun now,
although it is hard to figure what form that correction higher will take.
Price should hold above 1.1440 as wave [iv] continues to develop.
A break of that level will signal that wave [iii] has another low to form before then turning into wave [iv].
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [iii] to complete and wave [iv] to begin by tomorrow evening.
The previous wave (iv) lies at 1.2130,
So wave [iv] could put in a sizable rally over the coming days.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
Wave ‘B’ did not create the larger structure that I was looking for today.
Instead we got a straight up rally into wave ‘C’ earlier than expected.
The rally is pushing on up to the resistance level quite quickly now.
112.23 marks the target for wave (D),
and the high so far today reached 110.95.
Wave ‘C’ is tracing out a five wave structure,
with wave [iii] of ‘C’ near to completing this evening.
Waves [iv] and [v] should reach that target level before wave (E) will turn lower again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [iv] to hold above 108.50 tomorrow.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
I was going to say that todays trade was a relatively quiet affair,
but then I see we actually had a 1500 point range!
Good Lord,
this market is untradable right now in my mind.
So it’s hard to fathom how anyone is actually dipping in here to buy anything!
The price seems to be approaching an end to wave ‘3’ down now.
And the ending diagonal idea for wave [v] of ‘3’ is still viable.
The top this evening can be viewed as wave (iv) of [v] after a possible three wave rally higher today.
If this is correct,
we will see a final low for wave ‘3’ tomorrow or Monday.
Once that hapens I will begin to look for another retracement higher in wave [iv] to begin.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) of [v] of ‘3’ to drop to one final low below 18900.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is still holding above the recent lows at 1449.
The pattern off that low is not ideal yet,
but I am willing to give this action the benefit of the doubt now.
It is possible that we have an expanded flat correction in place in wave (ii) at todays lows.
This requires a rally to begin tomorrow in wave (iii).
And the low at 1449 must hold.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) to begin and push back above 1554 over the coming few sessions.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude has rallied today off the lows of wave [iii] created last night.
This rally should be the first move higher in wave [iv] now underway.
Wave (a) of [iv] has traced out three waves higher today so wave (a) may be complete at todays highs.
Wave (b) should fall back to a higher low above 20.50 over the next few sessions.
And then wave (c) should rally again to complete three waves up.
The previous fourth wave high lies at 36.67.
So it is possible that wave [iv] will make it back up there before completing the correction.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (b) to hold above 20.50 again tomorrow.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The ending diagonal idea for wave [v] is holding today so far.
Wave [iv] of ‘5’ rallied in three waves off the wave [iii] low created Wednesday morning.
And now the price is falling again in wave [v] of ‘5’.
Wave [v] should break to a new low for the week tomorrow below 2270.
If wave [v] hits the lower trend line of the diagonal,
then we should see a final low in the area of 2200 or slightly below.
If this action occurs tomorrow,
then I will be looking higher again next week into wave (2).
And wave (2) could reach up between 2700 and 2880 in three waves.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [v] of ‘5’ to bottom out soon.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
No change in silver today.
The price is holding a slight higher low in wave (b) so far.
But wave (c) up has not yet begun.
Once we have a clear corrective pattern in wave [iv] complete,
then I will look lower into wave [v].
Tomorrow;
Watch for a rally in wave (b) of [iv] beginning tomorrow.