HI there everyone, welcome back to a new week.
It’s only Monday and we have already been given so much action to talk about!
So lets get down to it shall we.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD seems to have found the ceiling to this rally now.
Todays action may br the top of wave [v] already in place,
or a small wave (iv) of [v] correcting sideways before one more push to complete wve [v].
Either way it looks like the next major move will be to the downside in wve [i] green,
A break of 1.1095 will signal that the turn lower is in.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a final high in wave [v] to occur,
A spike lower off that high will signal that wave (i) of [i] is underway.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable spiked to a new high early this morning,
and off that high the price has simply corrected slightly lower.
The action may be forming a triangle within wave ‘c’.
This would be a small fourth wave,
and then the final fifth wave of ‘c’ should rally into resistance at 1.3287 to complete the pattern.
Tomorrow;
If this count is correct,
then I would like to see the price hold above 1.3000 as this triangle completes.
Watch for a final push higher in wave ‘c’ to complete a three wave correction in wave (ii).
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY has blown the recent wave count out of the water today,
so I’m afraid its back to the drawing board.
I have switched to the alternate count this evening.
And this is best viewed on the daily chart.
The lows that are now being created are in wave (c) of the triangle wave [B].
So it looks like we have another 6 months of sideways action before wave [B] is complete.
Waves (D) and (E) should continue to contract the price range until then.
So the next leg up in wave (D) should complete near that 112.00 handle again,
before falling down into wave (E) of [B}.
The short term count will take a few days to build again,
so I will wait until we have a solid low in place for wave (C) before tracking wave (D) up.
Tomorrow;
Lets see if we can build a low soon in wave (C).
A spike higher again will signal that wave (D) has begun.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The decline off the all time high into todays lows has now eclipsed the size of the decline back in late 2018.
And this recent crash is far more severe in many ways than 2018.
The rate of the decline is much steeper,
and there has hardly been a reaction at all apart for a few days relief rally last week.
What is happening now is a whole new beast compared to that last episode.
And this time, I dont think we recover either.
Todays follow through decline has triggered the alternate count for wave ‘2’.
And now wave ‘3’ is underway.
The severity of the drop today is very much in keeping with a third wave down.
And the most likely target for wave ‘3’ is at the 2018 low of 21447.
This level will offer some support to the crash,
but this should only prove to be a fourth wave correction higher.
Tomorrow;
I have shown todays drop as wave [i] of ‘3’ now underway.
We could be close to a low in wave [i] also,
so we should see a three wave correction higher in wave [ii] of ‘3’ by the middle of the week.
Watch for wave [i] of ‘3’ to complete and wave [ii] to begin.
If we fill the gap created this morning in wave [ii],
that will suggest a rally back into the 25700 level again.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
I am testing the alternate count in gold today also.
This is a more bullish count in the short term,
with wave [i] of ‘5’ already underway off the recent lows.
Todays action can be counted as a triangle wave (iv).
If we see a rally out of this correction again tomorrow,
that will signal wave (v) has begun.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave [i] to complete with a break of 1700 again in wave (v) of [i].
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
What a day for the financial markets!
Crude took a big hit also today,
with gap lower at the overnight which broke down into the low 30’s.
The price actually broke into the 20 handle for a while early this morning!
This action is very much like a third of a third to the downside.
So I am pretty happy with the main wave count after todays sharp decline.
Today low can be viewed as wave (iii) of [iii] of ‘3’!
The correction higher today is in three waves so far,
this is labelled as wave (iv).
Wave (iv) can trace out a few different patterns.
So I will just have to wait and see on that front.
But when it completes,
we should see another drop in wave (v) of [iii].
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (iv) to hold below 43.57 at the extreme.
Wave (v) of [iii] should break 27.00 before we see a correction higher in wave [iv] green.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
Todays crash in the S&P has triggered the alternate count also.
Wave ‘3’ down is now underway.
The pattern off the wave ‘2’ high is close to completing a five wave decline at this evenings lows.
So wave [i] of ‘3’ is near at hand.
We should expect to see another rally in wave [ii] this week.
But this should give way to a further acceleration lower in wave [iii] of ‘3’.
Wave ‘3’ will reach equality with wave ‘1’ at 2580.
Soi this is the minimum target.
But I suspect wave ‘3’ of (1) will be attracted to the previous fourth wave low at 2310.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [i] to find a low soon,
wave [ii] should carry back up to the 2853 level again.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
There is a chance that wave (v) of [c] completed at todays lows with a failed fifth wave.
this would mean wave [i] of ‘3’ to the upside was now clear to begin.
If we get a break of 17.60 again over the next few days,
that will suggest wave (i) of [i] had begun.
Tomorrow;
The main wave count will allow for a break of 16.38 before beginning the next leg up.