HI there everyone,
here is the weekend video,
I have done a deep dive into a few alternate counts for Crude oil and USDJPY so take a look to get the big picture.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD has had a good week for a change!
Wave ‘C’ of (2) has rallied all week and broke above the initial target at 1.1240 today.
The price has faltered this evening right in the middle of the two resistance levels as shown.
It is reasonable to assume that wave ‘C’ is now done at todays highs.
And that wqave (3) down about to begin.
But we will need some confirming price action early next week to be certain of that.
Monday;
Watch for the price to continue to decline in a five wave form back below 1.1095 in wave [i] green.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable has not managed to break above the next interim high at 1.3096 marked on the short term chart.
Wave ‘c’ is running into some resistnace at this level.
I would like to see wave ‘c’ overcome this level and continue up towards the target at 1.3287 on Monday.
If we see a breakdown no Monday which takes out the wave ‘b’ low at 1.2725 again.
Then I will have to conceede defeat and call wave (iii) underway.
Monday;
watch for wave ‘c’ to turn higher towards the target again.
Wave (iii) should begin later on next week.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
I spent some time on USDJPY in the video earlier today,
I went through the alternate scenario for the larger triangle wave [B] on the daily chart.
In short,
If we see a break of 104.44 next week,
then we are in for a longer period of ranging price action as wave [B] will just take longer to complete.
The price is holding above that level so far today,
but we are too close for comfort.
Monday;
Watch for wave [i] to push higher again and break above 108.00 to save this version of the larger triangle in wave [B].
104.44 must hold next week.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW has created an expanded flat correction in wave [b] at this afternoons lows.
The low of the session came in at 25204 at wave (c) of [b].
And so far the price has rallied off that low this evening.
This rally off the low is now viewed as the beginning of [c] green.
And if this count is correct,
then next week is looking like at significant rally will occur in wave [c].
The minimum target for wave [c] lies at the wave [a] high at 27084.
If wave [c] reaches the upper trend line,
then we could see a high in the area of 27700.
The 62% retracement level of wave ‘1’ down lies at 27697.
So we have a few targets to work with now to complete wave ‘2’.
The alternate count is still viable,
but we will have to see immediate weakness on Monday for that count to take over.
Monday;
Watch for wave [c] to begin with an impulsive higher low above 25204.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold created a double top today at 1689 before falling sharply off that high.
The price has recovered reasonably this evening as the price is holding above 1670 again.
This spike lower, followed by a lower high,
can be viewed as waves (i) and (ii) of [c] to the downside.
In that case wave [c] will continue lower and complete a double bottom at 1561 next week.
That should complete wave ‘4’ red,
and then I can look higher again in wave ‘5’ red.
But I am not totally convinced by the bearish count either!
The bullish alternate can also explain this weeks action quite well.
If this weeks rally is in fact wave [i] up.
Then we should see a rally above 1720 or so early next week.
And a clear five wave pattern off that wave ‘4’ low.
Either way, next week is looking interesting at the least!
Tomorrow;
watch for wave [c] to continue lower and complete wave ‘4’ by the end of next week.
A break above 1700 again will favor the alternate count.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Wave ‘v’ came in strong in crude oil today.
The price fell back below the wave ‘iii’ low at 43.57 again this evening,
this action is now close to completing wave (iii) down.
So once wave (iii) finds a final low next week,
we should see a corrective rally in wave (iv) back towards the 46.00 level again.
wave (v) of [iii] should break back below the 40 handle again by the end of the month.
Monday;
watch for wave (iii) to bottom out above the 40.00 level before a correction higher in wave (iv) begins.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
Wave ‘2’ is still in force after another wild week of gyrations in the market.
I am counting wave [b] as complete at this evenings lows in a flat correction.
This count expects to see a rally in wave [c] begin over the coming days,
which could carry the price back above the wave [a] high at 3140 again.
If wave [c] continues up to the upper trend line again,
then we will see a high at 3210.
the bigger picture is more important here though.
Once wave ‘2’ completes,
The market will be primed for a serious decline in wave ‘3’ down.
And wave ‘3’ should hit the 2018 lows again at about 2300.
So we are staring off the edge of a cliff right now!
Monday;
Next week should be enough to complete wave ‘2’ in full.
We might even see the initial moves lower into wave ‘3’ by Friday.
The alternate count is also viable after todays action,
a break of the wave ‘1’ low at 2853 again will signal wave [i] of ‘3’ is in force.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
There is a real divergence between silver and gold over the last week.
The rally in gold brought us to a double top,
while silver has barely managed a retracement of the recent decline.
The fear trade is solely focused on gold these days.
At the moment,
I am split 60/40 between the main wave count and the alternate.
There is still a chance that the bullish alternate will take over next week.
but only a break of the 18.20 level will force my hand on this one.
Monday;
I will stick with the main wave count for now.
wave (v) of [c] should fall back below 16.38 again to complete the pattern in wave ‘2’.
And then a rally in wave [i] should begin.
I pray you all have a peaceful and enjoyable weekend ahead.
Back to work on Monday for more madness in the markets!
But there could be a real prize top, on the cards for next week in the stock market, here’s hoping!
God’s Blessing’s and God’s speed to every one of you fine people.
Until Monday,
over and out!