Hi there everyone.
A bit of bad news if you are a big follower of bonds!
I cannot retrieve my data feed for the U.S 10yr so far.
Admiral markets is not providing the historical data now that the futures have rolled over last week. Usually the charts would merge into one another, but that is not the case now.
So I am going to have to see how I can proceed from here.
It might come to the point where I can no longer provide analysis on U.S 10YR bonds, we will have to see!
Ok down to it then!
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD is still moving higher today in wave ‘C’ blue as per the new wave count.
Wave ‘C’ should trace out a five wave pattern in total,
and it seems like we are moving that way so far.
The minimum target for wave ‘C’ lies at 1.1240,
which is the top in wave ‘A’ blue.
The high of the session today hit 1.1212,
and that high completed the rally in wave [iii] of ‘C’.
So now we need a corrective move lower in wave [iv],
followed by a rally in wave [v] to complete the whole rally.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave [iv] of ‘C’ to correct back into the 1.1100 region again in three waves.
If we get a break of 1.1240 before that correction,
then I will consider the whole rally in wave ‘C’ complete.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
I am beginning to feel sorry for poor ole cable!
The price is holding above the immediate low at 1.2725 again today,
but the pattern off that low looks corrective so far.
There is even a possibility that we have a triangle now tracing out off that low.
If that is the case,
then we will see another drop below 1.2725 again to complete wave ‘b’,
before we rally again in wave ‘c’.
Tomorrow;
We need to see wave ‘c’ get going pretty quick now in order to continue with this short term count.
Watch for 1.2725 to hold again,
and a break of 1.3018 to confirm wave ‘c’.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
The price has shot lower today out of a compression created in the overnight trade.
This action suggests a triangle correction in wave [iv],
followed by a thrust lower out of the triangle in wave [v].
If this is the case,
then we have the final move lower in wave ‘C’ of (E) now underway.
I will have to wait and see if this wave count plays out the way I think it could,
but for the moment it seems like we are approaching another significant low.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [v] of ‘C’ to complete at about 106.50.
If we see a rally off that level in five waves,
that will suggest that a bottom is in for wave (E).
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The action is almost moving too fast to follow these days,
but I will give it my best shot tonight.
The market spiked to a high at 27084 out of the gate this morning.
This level is only 41 points below the 50% retracement level at 27125.
The market then sold off sharply again off that high,
loosing 1384 points again into the low of the session!
That is some wild action!
With this action in mind,
I have suggested an alternate count this evening circled in red.
Todays high may be the whole retracement in wave ‘2’ now complete.
If that is the case,
the price should hold below 27084,
and continue to selloff over the coming days in wave [i] of ‘3’ as shown.
Tomorrow;
The main wave count is still in operation for now.
This count views todays selloff as wave [b] of ‘2’.
Wave [b] should fall in three waves to a higher low above wave ‘1’ at 24681.
And then wave [c] should rally back above todays high to complete the correction.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold rocketed higher today against the backdrop of a weak stock market.
And this action has re-affirmed the potential for gold as a safe haven in market turmoil.
If that is the case,
then we may well have a whole lot of rally left to come in gold over the coming year!
And that is my preferred outlook right now.
The rally so far off the wave [a] low is in three waves as suggested.
And we have reached the previous shelf of resistance at the high.
This should top out wave [b] for now,
and if we see a decline back below 1600 again tomorrow,
that will suggest wave [c] down is underway.
I have one eye still on that alternate count circled in red.
And if we continue higher tomorrow then wave [i] of ‘5’ may be in play.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [c] to push lower again and break 1600 to confirm the main pattern.
Wave [c] is targeted to about 1535 to complete.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude oil stopped short of breaking above resistance at 49.40 today.
the price has created a three wave rise into that point,
hitting a high at 48.77 early today,
and then the price spiked lower off that level again.
It now looks like wave ‘iv’ of (iii) is complete at todays high.
And wave ‘v’ of (iii) should be underway.
Wave ‘v’ should fall in five waves again and break the wave ‘iii’ low at 43.57 at a minimum.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 48.77 to hold.
A small lower high below that level will suggest wave ‘v’ is underway.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P has sold off for most of the session today after spiking to a high at 3138 after the open.
That high broke above the 50% retracement level of the decline in wave ‘1’,
which lies at 3123.
So there is the potential that wave ‘2’ is already complete at that high!
The selloff today is quite impulsive in nature also,
which adds to the intrigue in the alternate count right now!
So,
if we see this decline continue over the coming days and it breaks the low at 2853,
that will suggest that wave ‘3’ down is already underway.
Tomorrow;
For the moment I will stick with the more conservative main wave count.
Wave [b] should find a low pretty soon in this case,
And then wave [c] will complete the larger correction in wave ‘2’.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver rallied in three waves into the previous resistance zone today.
The price reached a high at 17.45,
and now the price is falling off that level again.
It is possible that wave (v) of [c] is now underway.
And wave [c] should break 16.38 again before completing.
The bullish alternate count is not as strong here in silver as it is in gold,
so I don’t think we will see an early rally to begin wave [i] in this case.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (v) of [c] to complete with a break of 16.51.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Data feed problem.