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Hi there everyone.

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EURUSD.

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EURUSD 1hr.

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EURUSD is stumbling higher today to begin the correction in wave (ii).
The action is less than inspiring to the upside so far,
but that is to be expected in a flat correction.
Where wave ‘a’ of (ii) should trace out a three wave correction higher.

Tomorrow;
watch for this rally in wave ‘a’ to continue in three waves.
the sloping trend line above should offer resistance to wave ‘a’.
before falling back in wave ‘b’.
1.0776 must continue to hold.

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GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 1hr.

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Wave ‘c’ is taking its sweet time to develop thats for sure.
The price has risen in three waves off the wave ‘b’ low so far.
So I have to be careful that this is not a correction higher,
rather than the beginning of wave ‘c’.
If the price continues above 1.3069 that will confirm wave ‘c’.
But I also want the higher low at 1.2886 to hold.

Tomorrow;
1.2886 must hold as wave ‘c’ develops.
Price should continue higher for the rest of the week to close out the larger correction in wave (ii).

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USDJPY.

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USDJPY 1hr.

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USDJPY may now have completed a three wave correction lower off the wave [i] high.
The price has retraced 62% of the previous rally in wave [i].
And the structure can be counted as a three wave pattern.
Price is sitting on that 109.93 retracement level as we close this evening.
So a rally off this point should signal wave (i) of [iii] has begun.

Tomorrow;
If wave [iii] is going to begin,
it needs to start now.

watch for wave [ii] to complete at this level,
and wave (i) of [iii] to push higher again overnight.

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DOW JONES.

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DOW 1hr.

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The S&P failed to bounce in any real fashion today,
and I am taking this as a real vote in favor of the bearish outlook.

The price broke through the 28000 level in a convincing fashion today,
and is again closing near the lows of the session.
This is a nice follow through after Mondays plunge,
and marks a clear acceleration lower in wave (iii).

The decline off the high does not look complete as a five wave pattern just yet though.
If wave (iii) is now nearing completion,
then I think we should see a fourth wave correction higher over the next few days.
And that correction might take us back to test 28000 again,
before wave (v) should then fall again and break 27000

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) to find a low pretty soon.
Wave (iv) may be a short and sweet affair,
so I am looking for a sharp snap back rally to begin soon.
But it will fail after three waves.

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GOLD

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GOLD 1hr.

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The correction in Gold is a little worrying now after a sharp drop off the high at 16.89.
I have not abandoned the the bullish count yet,
because we could see a larger three wave pattern underway.

But if we get a break below 1611 again,
that will signal something different is underway.
There is a larger alternate count on the daily chart
which shows this rally and correction as merely another 1,2 rally
before an even bigger acceleration in a larger third wave.

We will have to wait and see on that front.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iv’ to complete three waves and hold above 1611.
Wave ‘v’ should begin to push back towards 1689 again by the end of this week.

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CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL 1hr.

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I think I jumped the gun on calling wave (i) complete last night.
The rebound did not last today,
and now the price is falling again in an impulsive fashion.

Wave (i) seems to be creating a larger structure now,
and we should see a break below support at 49.40 to complete it.
And when wave (i) is complete,
then wave (ii) should rally back towards 52.00 at the previous fourth wave.

Tomorrow;
Wave (i) down is almost done now.
If we see a bounce off support at 49.40 that should signal wave (ii) has begun.

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S&P 500.

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S&P 500 1hr

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Wave ‘v’ of (i) came in hard today in the S&P.
The structure off the high seems to be a little clearer than the DOW at the moment.
We have a nice five wave pattern in place off that all time high.
And the price sliced through the lower support at 3120 today.

This action all fits well with an impulsive decline.
And the fact that we have not had any answer to this decline is also favorable.
The next piece of the puzzle from here,
is for a three wave retracement to build off the low in wave (ii).
I think we will see that correction begin soon.
It should not last long either,
but wave (ii) could push back up to the previous fourth wave high at 3260 before completing.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (i) down to complete nearby.
Wave ‘a’ of (ii) will likely spike higher off the low and break above 3180 again.

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SILVER.

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SILVER 1hr

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The continued slide lower in silver has forced a rethink of the short term wave count today.

I am happy with the idea that wave’s [i] and [ii] are complete at 17.37.
The upside off that low is now viewed as the beginning of wave [iii].
And this structure has traced out a series of 1,2 impulse waves so far.

Wave ‘ii’ of (iii) is now underway.
This should complete a three wave correction over the coming days.
And this should lead to a rally in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [iii].

In this new scenario,
we could see silver back above the 20 handle before long.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete a three wave correction over the new few days.
Wave ‘ii’ must hold above 17.45.

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U.S 10YR.

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US 10YR 1hr.

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There is one last bearish scenario for bonds that I want to test before flipping the script completely!
I have shown the 4hr chart this evening to flesh out this idea.

The rally over the last few months seems to have traced out a five wave pattern.
This can be viewed as a terminal rally in wave [v] of ‘C’ as shown.

Wave (iv) of [v] is a clear contracting triangle.
And the thrust out of that triangle is also tracing out a five wave pattern.

If this count is correct.
Then wave [v] of ‘C’ must complete below 135.47.
And then we should see a new impulsive decline begin off wave ‘C’ of (2)
which should begin wave (3) down.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [v] of ‘C’ to complete very soon.
Wave (iv) lies at 130.91.
A break of that level again will signal that the top is in for wave ‘C’ and wave (2).

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