Good evening folks.
I am in a hotel room with three small kids asleep around!
So I will have to keep the writing short and sweet this evening.
I will postpone the video until next Monday I think.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD posts its first reasonable gain today after and extended slide down in wave (i).
Todays spike higher is labelled as the beginning of wave ‘a’ of (ii).
so we are looking up for most of the next week and possibly longer
if the retracement in wave (ii) reaches back into the previous fourth wave area at 1.1100.
Monday;
watch for wave ‘a’ to create at least a three wave rise over the coming week.
The lows at 107.76 must hold.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable has begun its rally in wave ‘c’ finally also.
If we see a break of 1.3069 early next week,
that should confirm the rally in wave ‘c’.
and we can expect a five wave structure to reach up to 1.3283 over the next week.
Monday;
1.2847 must hold and wave ‘c’ should continue higher.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is correcting in wave (iv) today after completing wave (iii) at Thursdays highs.
I suspect this correction will continue for a few sessions.
So the early action next week will likely be sideways and choppy.
Monday;
I want to see further wave (iv) hold above 111.10 after a three wave corretion..
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The action is continuing to the downside in a pretty convoluted fashion today.
Overall,
down is where I want it to go, but I would like to see a clearer pattern develop.
I will hold judgement on this decline for the moment.
It is possible that we get an acceleration next week that will clear up the structure.
Monday;
I want to see further declines to accelerate through 28890 and towards the lower support at 28120.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is doing what I want it to do,
but this rally in wave (v) is building much quicker than I was expecting.
The internal corrections in wave (v) have been short and shallow.
So;
I have re labelled the structure off the low to show todays acceleration higher as part of wave ‘iii’ of (v).
Rather than wave ‘i’ last night.
There is still room to go to the upside in wave (v).
If wave (v) reache sequality with wave (iii),
that gives us a target at 1716 to complete the larger wave [v].
Monday;
Watch for wave (v) to continue higher next week.
Wave ‘iv’ of (v) should correct sideways and likely hold above 1611.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude fell off Thursdays highs and this could be the first move lower in wave (i) down.
I have labelled the action as wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ of (i).
So if this short term count is correct,
then wave ‘iii’ of (i) will fall below 51.13 early next week.
Wave (i) should break below 49.40 again.
Monday;
Watch for wave (i) to continue lower.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The declines in the S&P are looking much more impulsive than the DOW at the moment.
The market is closing on the lows of the session now,
and we are getting closer to that 3303 level with every passing hour.
A break of that level would really give a boost to the bearish outlook now.
So that is the first test next week.
Monday;
Lets see if wave ‘i’ can break 3303.
Then we can look for a bearish lower high to build off that level.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is again consolidating the gains of the session as we close.
The price has broken out above the upper trend channel line today.
This is another good signal that the rally in wave (i) is now in force.
the high hit 18.62 today,
if we see a break of 18.85 again that should rule out the alternate count.
Monday;
watch for wave ‘iii’ of (i) to continue above resistance.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Todays rally has broken that previous high at 131.89 and ruled out the previous count.
That high at 132.40 is close now,
and it must hold to continue with the bearish outlook.
I have shown another interpretation for wave [c] of ‘2’ today.
This involves a five wave rally into this high.
And the recent action is viewed as a triangle in wave (iv).
Monday;
It is critical that 132.40 holds from here.
I will just have to wait ans see how it develops.