Good evening folks.
I came across this twitter account today from a Chinese american journalist who is covering the virus using a lot of social media clips from inside china.
https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd
It is a very interesting insight into the dire situation underway in China.
I pray they can get this virus under control,
but as it stands,
it seems the situation is out of control.
God help them.
In terms of the markets,
it feels like we are waiting for a punch in the face to come.
We all know its coming,
but until we have a bloody nose to prove it,
we will continue the course we are on.
Not a good plan in my mind!
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD is making new lows again today without any sign yet of a respite in wave (ii).
The price has moved below support at 1.0878,
this fact only affects the alternate count now.
The break of support now classifies wave (2) alt as an expanded flat correction.
And wave ‘C’ of (2) would target at least 1.1239,
but we could see a push up to 1.1350 or so if that alternate count gets triggered.
Tomorrow;
As for the main count,
wave (i) should find a low soon as the momentum is already pointing up on the 4hr chart.
A small higher low above 1.0878 will signal wave (ii) has begun.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
It’s a slow start to wave ‘c’ up but so far the price is still holding above the wave ‘b’ low at 1.2871.
The move off that low is in three waves so far.
So this pattern must continue higher and develop into a five wave structure in wave ‘c’.
Wave ‘b’ did break to a new low below the previous wave (i) low yesterday,
so this wave (ii) is now an expanded flat correction.
And wave ‘c’ of (ii) should break above 1.3283 at a minimum.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to continue higher again.
A break of 1.3071 will confirm wave ‘c’ is underway.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
We seem to have expanded flats everywhere in the USDX markets these days!
USDJPY broke to a new high above the wave (i) top today,
as wave ‘b’ continues to inch higher towards resistance at 110.28.
Wave ‘c’ is still expected to fall soon and complete wave (ii) overall.
Wave ‘c’ should break 109.52 at a minimum,
but a 50% retracement will bring the price to 109.15.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘b’ to top out and wave ‘c’ to turn lower again.
Resistance at 110.28 should halt this rise in wave ‘b’.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW is now sitting at the door of a new record high this evening.
The price pattern has almost created five waves within wave (v) now.
And the smaller degree wave ‘v’ pink has traced out a five wave pattern also.
Wave ‘v’ should continue higher towards the upper trend channel to complete a clear new high,
before turning down to begin a new impulse pattern lower.
This market continues to show a decelerating momentum picture on all charts now.
And once we have our new high in place,
momentum should be followed by the price to the downside.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ to complete over the next few sessions.
Wave ‘i’ down should then bring us back below 29000 again.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
The triangle pattern for wave (iv) is still in play this evening
after a pretty quiet day in the gold market.
Wave ‘e’ of (iv) may not be done just yet though,
the price could still fall towards 1550 on the low end.
The price will then touch the lower trend channel line again.
And at that point we should see a return higher in wave ‘i’ of (v).
Tomorrow;
The wave ‘d’ high lies at 1576.55.
if the price rallies above that level again that will indicate wave ‘i’ has begun.
Watch for 1547.40 to hold.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude oil is on the rise today if only by a small margin.
the price seems to be following the three wave flat correction pattern so far.
Wave (c) of [ii] should break above 52.28 at a minimum to complete the correction.
but I would like to see a rally up to 54.35 at the previous fourth wave high.
This would at least carry the price above the 23.6% retracement level of wave [i].
Although that seems a small retracement given the overwhelming bearish sentiment in the market now!
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to continue higher and hit 52.28 at the initial target.
We will see what happens after that.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P has now completed a five wave pattern in wave ‘v’ of (v) by breaking to a new high today.
The momentum setup suggests that this rally is done now,
but we could see a push up to that upper trend line as a closing move
before any real drop off begins into wave (i) down.
Tomorrow;
For the moment it is a wait and see game in stocks.
The price will find a high in wave (v) soon enough.
And when it does,
we should see a sudden and unexpected dose of reality in the market as wave (i) brings us back into that support range again.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver has created a double bottom at 17.47 today after a slow grind lower over the last few days.
The drop off the wave ‘i’ high at 18.09 is still in three waves.
So,
as long as the price holds above 17.37,
this will be regarded as a correction in wave ‘ii’ pink.
If we see a move back above 17.87 again this week,
that should be enough to signal wave ‘iii’ has begun.
Tomorrow;
17.37 must hold now to avoid triggering that alternate count.
Watch for the price to rally soon and break 17.87 to begin wave ‘iii’ of (i).
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds have not accelerated lower today but the price is off slightly at least.
Until we see a break of 130.20 to begin wave (iii) down,
I will hold off on calling a top in place.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) down to begin to make some ground and to take out initial support at least.