Hi there.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD dipped below support at 1.0992 today,
and the price almost hit the declining trend channel at the lows.
This action can still be explained quite well using either wave count,
this is a little frustrating for sure
as we don’t have a clear favorite at the moment.
Right now both counts are calling for a rally to begin in either wave (ii) or wave ‘C’.
Wave (ii) should trace out there waves up to about 1.1170.
and wave ‘C’ is calling for a larger rally possibly up to 1.1400.
So for the short term I think we will see a rally off these lows at least.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) to close out now and wave (ii) to begin with a push back above 1.1095 at a minimum.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable has spent the last month just meandering sideways in a solid trading range between 1.33 and 1.29.
This action is the essence of a corrective move,
a long time spent going nowhere!
The price fell below 1.2941 today,
but this is still best viewed as wave ‘b’ of a larger wave (ii).
I think there is one more rally into that upper range left to complete the structure.
in wave ‘c’ as shown with the target set at 1.3283.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘b’ to find a final low soon,
wave ‘c’ should create a small higher low above the low to signal that the rally has begun.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is higher again today but the rally is waning now.
There is still a chance that we will hit the resistance at 110.28 again before wave (i) completes.
The action is getting a little choppy and visibly losing momentum now.
So lets see if we can manage the 110.28 target overnight.
Price will likey begin to fall into wave (ii) soon enough.
And the initial target for wave (ii) at 109.26.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (i) to close out near resistance at 110.28.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW sold off this morning and is closing below the new all time high
which was created in the aftermarket last night.
For the moment I am viewing this drop as a correction in wave ‘iv’ of (v).
With another run up in wave ‘v’ of (v) left to complete.
The upper trend channel lies at 29815.
If we get a hit of that trend line and then a solid rejection off that high,
then I will become interested in the downside again.
The last decline got close but never broke that 28120 level.
so now we have a double bottom support in place.
If the market drops below that level again in an impulsive fashion,
it will be an even more significant event.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iv’ to complete,
and wave ‘v’ to run higher towards the upper trend line again.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is trading positive again today which I am finding very interesting indeed!
The rise off this weeks low is in three waves so far.
If this pattern extends back above 1592 again,
that will raise the possibility that wave (v) has already begun.
For the moment I will work with that small three wave rise today as a correction higher.
This does suggest one more drop into support to complete wave ‘c’ of (iv).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to complete at 1535.
A rally above 1569 again will signal wave (v) has begun.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is dropped again today but the price is holding above the recent low at 49.40.
The short term pattern suggests wave ‘b’ of (a) is now underway.
Wave ‘b’ looks like a possible expanded flat correction.
Wave ‘c’ of (ii) should push above 52.29 again at a minimum.
The likely target for wave ‘c’ lies at 53.50.
This is where wave ‘c’ will reach equality with wave (a).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to hold above 49.40.
Wave ‘c’ should begin soon.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The drop off the high in the S&P looks more corrective than the DOW.
The pattern is in three waves,
and the price found support at the previous high at 3337 this evening.
So I think wave ‘v’ is still ahead of us.
The trend channel suggests another area at about 3395 for wave ‘v’ to fill the channel.
And as with the DOW,
if we see an abrupt selloff at that level,
that will indicate a possible turn is underway.
The key level below us remains at 3180 as before.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iv’ to complete above 3297 and wave ‘v’ to take us higher into the upper trend line.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is rising today which is in line with the short term count so far.
The rise is in very small increments though which does not fit with the idea of a third wave rally.
We must see a larger rise tomorrow
to push the action towards a five wave move within wave ‘iii’.
Tomorrow;
The low at wave ‘ii’ is at 17.47
Watch for that level to hold and wave ‘iii’ to continue higher.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
It is possible to read the decline off the recent high as a five wave move so far.
The decline has now filled the gap within wave [c],
and the price is rising off that level this evening.
If we see a corrective rise off that 130.20 level from here,
that will create the possibility of a bearish impulse wave off the high.
And then I will prepare for a larger decline into a possible third wave.
Tomorrow;
Lets see how wave (ii) develops.
I am looking for a three wave correction to complete below 131.89.