Good evening to you.
I hope you survived the weekend in one piece as I did.
This week should bring about the completion of some very interesting patterns in stocks and metals.
The pattern in crude oil has triggered the alternate count today, but I still see corrective rally coming there soon.
So lots to chew on this evening, let dive in.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
Even though we had a rally in EURUSD today,
it is hard to call it a five wave pattern off the low just yet.
So I’m afraid we are still stuck in limbo with this one!
The price hit a high at 1.1095 and then moved lower off that high
and found support this evening at 1.1040.
If the price is turning toward the alternate count,
then we should see a renewed rally again tomorrow back above 1.1100.
A break of the wave ‘i’ low at 1.1124 will trigger the alternate count for good.
Tomorrow;
I am still watching the main wave count also,
a drop below 1.0992 again will signal wave ‘v’ of (i) is in force.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable is turning out to be a very difficult pair to call these days.
Just as it looked like wave ‘c’ was in force last Friday,
the price reversed sharply today and ruled out that count.
I still think the larger wave (ii) pattern has not been resolved yet,
and we need a rally back to 1.3283 again to do that.
I have shown todays decline as part of a larger wave ‘b’ flat.
this decline should find support at 1.2905 again,
and then wave ‘c’ should return higher to meet that upper trend line again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to complete at support
and then wave ‘c’ to begin off that low.
1.3283 is the main target for wave ‘c’ to complete later this week.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY has rebounded off Fridays lows today.
Although the rise is not impulsive yet, it is possible that wave (i) up has now begun.
I will need to see Fridays lows to hold at 108.27,
and then a break above 109.26 to add weight to the bullish idea.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (i) to hold above 108.27 and continue higher.
If this count is correct,
we may see a bullish higher low develop at wave (ii) by the end of the week.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW has rallied off Fridays lows in a clear three wave pattern so far.
This action does suggest a correction higher and that wave (ii) is now underway.
I have labelled the rise off the low as wave ‘a’ of (ii) so far.
This evenings drop to a higher low may be wave ‘b’,
and then wave ‘c’ should rally again back above the wave ‘a’ high at 28632 to complete the pattern.
the previous fourth wave lies at 28935,
so wave (ii) should finish within that range early this week.
Wave (iii) down should begin from there and fall down through 28000 again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to complete above the low at wave (i).
Wave ‘c’ should break above 28632 at a minimum.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
The low of the session today broke below 1570 by a mere few cents.
the margin was tiny,
but this action was enough to rule out the idea of a triangle in wave (iv).
The pattern in this correction is complicated now.
I have shown the next best bullish count on the hourly chart this evening.
This involves a failed wave ‘c’ of (iv) at 1563.04,
and a small impulse wave out of that low labelled wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’.
That low at 1563.04 must hold now for this bullish count to remain valid.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (v) push back above 1600 again.
A break of 1611 will confirm wave (v) has begun.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Another small drop today made a fresh new low in the recent pattern off wave ‘2’.
That decline has forced me to switch to the alternate count now.
The pattern off that wave ‘2’ high has traced out a five wave decline in wave [i] green.
Wave (v) of [i] seems to be completing an ending diagonal now.
And if this interpretation is correct
we should see a corrective rally take place in wave [ii] over the rest of this week.
The initial target for wave [ii] lies at 54.35 at the previous wave (iv) high.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (v) to find a low soon.
Ideally a push back above 52.00 again should signal wave (a) of [ii] has begun.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The pattern is a little different in the S&P than the DOW,
the S&P shows a series of 1,2 waves underway off the high which suggests an acceleration phase to the downside is coming in wave (iii).
While the DOW is still working through wave (ii).
The S&P rallied in three waves also today
which is labelled as wave ‘ii’ now complete.
The low at wave ‘i’ of (iii) lies at 3214,
and a drop back below 3214 again will signal wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is underway.
If this count is correct,
then this market is going to get very exciting, very quickly when wave (iii) picks up steam.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 3268.
Wave ‘iii’ down should fall again and break the wave ‘i’ low at 3214.
A break of 3180 again at the previous fourth wave low will be a strong signal that this market has topped.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver fell in wave ‘ii’ today and so far we are holding at a higher low above 17.37.
This low at wave [ii] must hold in order to remain bullish in the short term.
If wave ‘ii’ is now finished,
then wave ‘iii’ up should begin tomorrow and push back above the 18.34 again with ease.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (i) to begin.
A push above 18.09 at the wave ‘i’ high will signal wave ‘iii’ has begun.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
We saw a small decline in price today,
which has put a stay of execution on the bearish count for now.
I am just going to have to wait and see how this develops now before making any leaps of faith again.
Tomorrow;
I want to see Fridays highs hold,
and a five wave decline in wave (i) begin from here.
A drop back below 127.87 again will be enough to signal that a larger third wave down is beginning.
For the moment,
it is hands off for me.