Good evening all.
Here’s the weekend video recorded earlier this afternoon.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD has now touched the lower trend line of the declining trend channel this evening.
The pace of the decline is also slowing down which raises the same question that I have been pondering all week.
Is this wave ‘B’ or ‘iii’?
The action off the lower trend line
should offer some clarification on that question next week.
If the price rallies back up to test resistance at 1.1170,
that will favor the alternate count and I think then we can concentrate on the upside in a possible wave ‘C’.
Monday;
If the price accelerates lower to break 1.0982 I will stick with the main wave count.
Lets see if the lower trend channel line will offer support to the price.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
The action off he wave ‘b’ low is not ideal thats for sure.
The price has rallied in three waves so far off that 1.2954 low.
Where a ‘c’ wave should normally trace out a five wave rally.
It is possible that wave ‘c’ is tracing out an ending diagonal,
that would explain todays overlapping action .
And if the price rallies again on Monday to break 1.3172,
that will favor the main wave count.
However,
if we see a decline from this point that breaks below 1.2954,
that will signal wave (iii) is already underway.
This scenario is shown as the alternate count now.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to push back above 1.3172 again and close out the trend channel in wave (ii).
1.2954 must hold.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
Wave (c) of [ii] has now extended lower towards the 50% retracement level.
The price has now traced out five waves down within wave (c),
so this decline should be coming to an end soon.
Wave [ii] should find support around the 108.90 level,
and then I will be looking for a reversal higher to begin wave [iii] up.
Monday;
Watch for wave (c) to complete soon.
108.96 marks the 50% retracement level.
So that is the main level of interest from here.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW is finally making some waves in my direction today!
The drop off the high is hard to count as a five wave for yet,
so I will just have to wait and see how this develops next week.
In general I am looking for five waves down into wave (i) over the coming weeks.
Wave (i) should break 28100 again and then correction higher into wave (ii).
So the idealized pattern is easy,
what happens in the market is a whole other matter.
I have been looking at an interesting alternate count today.
This involves a possible failed fifth wave in wave ‘v’ pink at a lower high.
And then a decline into wave ‘i’ of (i).
If the pattern off that level develops into a five wave decline.
Then I will favor that failed fifth wave idea.
Monday;
The decline must continue throughout the rest of next week to build a clear five wave structure in wave (i) down.
That is the main focus again next week.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold broke above 1568 today,
and with that action I have switched focus to the upside again in wave (iii).
The low at 1535 is now considered wave (ii),
and the action off that low may be building a series of bullish 1,2, waves before rallying again into wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
Only a break of the 1611 high will confirm that wave (iii) has begun,
but as long as the price is moving higher,
I am willing to give the bullish count the benefit of the doubt.
Monday;
watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue higher and build into a larger five wave pattern.
1546 must hold for the bullish count to remain valid.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
The decline off the high at wave ‘2’ blue,
has so far traced out a three wave pattern.
This action is labelled as series of 1,2 waves at the moment.
The degree of the wave count will become clearer as the pattern develops next week.
So I have shown the alternate count at one degree higher.
This weeks decline has now completed a five wave pattern lower.
And this is viewed as wave ‘i’ of (iii),
or wave (i) of [iii] depending on the degree of the count.
The five wave pattern should now be followed by a three wave correction higher beginning next week.
This correction find resistance at 57.40 as shown.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to begin with a rise into 56.96.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P made a new cash high today at 3333.17.
And off that high the price took a dive lower in a very impulsive looking fashion.
The new high today in wave ‘v’,
confirmed the idea of an expanded flat correction for wave ‘iv’ pink which I spoke about last night.
And the decline today,
raises the possibility that wave (i) down has now begun.
If wave (i) down has begun now,
then the decline should continue next week towards the previous fourth wave low at 3180.
that level is the major support for the short term count.
And a break of that level should set us up for a bigger drop in wave (iii) further down the line.
Monday;
Watch for a small lower high to complete below 3333 in wave ‘ii’ pink.
It is not time to get excited yet,
but If wave (i) and (ii) complete as suggested,
then we can get serious about wave (iii).
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
The count in silver is getting pretty bullish right now.
If wave [ii] has completed at this weeks lows,
then we should move substantially higher over the coming weeks in wave [iii] as shown.
The rally off the low at 17.59 is labelled as a developing wave (i) up.
And todays acceleration higher is viewed as wave ‘iii’ of (i).
I would like to see wave (i) push back up to that resistance line at 18.80 in five waves next week.
Monday;
Watch for the low at wave [ii] to hold at 17.59.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) should push above 18.16.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
The short term count was invalidated today with a break above the 130.16 high.
I still favor the idea that a top is forming in wave [ii] green at the moment.
And wave [iii] down should bring us substantially lower over the coming months.
But for the moment,
this pattern has not resolved in wave [ii] yet.
And I will have to wait and see how this develops next week.
Monday;
Watch for wave (c) of [ii] to top out again early next week.
A decline back below 128.89 will signal that wave (i) is underway again.
I hope you all have a nice weekend ahead.
May God bless you all and see you through safely!
Until Monday,
over and out.