Good evening all,
I realise I am behind again on emails, so if you are waiting for a reply, I will get to you by the end of the week!
I have been overwhelmed with sick kids for the last week and nothing is happening outside of that, hence the reason for missing the weekend video last weekend.
I’m afraid it can’t be helped, so I humbly request your patience once again.
Ok here we go.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD is pretty flat in general today.
Price is moving slightly lower this evening which is continuing the downside bias of late.
So there is no change in the outlook at the moment.
I would like to see a move down into that lower trend channel line in either wave ‘iii’ or wave [c].
We can then examine the action off that line,
to see which count it favors.
A sharp move higher off that line will obviously favor the alternate count.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a drop into that 1.1030 area and we can can judge the action at that point.
1.1171 must hold in either count.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable is moving higher today off the recent wave ‘b’ lows at 1.2952.
The low has held for now,
we will see how wave ‘c’ holds up tomorrow.
A break of the interim high at 1.3120 will favor the current wave count.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to continue higher in wave ‘c’.
Wave ‘c’ should hit 1.3283 at a minimum.
1.2952 must hold.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
Last nights variation on wave (b) did not work today,
as the price fell back below the wave (a) low at 109.77 this evening.
This action should rule out the larger wave (b) scenario.
Wave (a) seems to be well underway now,
and we should see a five wave decline to complete that wave.
The initial target was that low at wave (a)
but I think we might see a drop back into the previous wave (iv) low at 109.40 in wave (c).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) down to continue overnight and hit 109.40.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW is moving lower now,
and the price has now dropped back into the smaller trend channel this evening.
This action is a welcome break from the relentless rally of late,
but we do need a much more substantial move lower now,
in order to give us something to work with.
The initial level of interest lies at the wave ‘iv’ low of 28884.
A break of that level will raise my interest at least.
And if the decline continues lower in five waves,
and we break 28121,
that will be a pretty good signal that we are working on a trend change.
Tomorrow;
Lets see if we can continue to the downside and develop into an impulse wave in wave (i).
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Wave ‘b’ seems to have put in a final high at wave 1568 today.
The price spiked lower off that level and is now sitting at a lower high as we hit the closing bell.
If wave ‘c’ has now started,
then 1568 should hold for now.
And wave ‘c’ down will be confirmed with a break of the low at 1535.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to continue lower to break 1535 at a minimum.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
The action in crude still looks corrective on the whole off the wave (i) low.
I have shown a slightly different variation on wave (ii) this evening.
Todays low is now viewed as wave ‘b’ and wave ‘c’ is underway this evening.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘c’ should continue up to that upper trend line at about 59.95 to complete a three wave correction.
the low at wave ‘b’ is at 57.70,
this level should should hold for now.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
Despite opening lower and selling this morning,
the S&P actually rallied this evening to stave off a dreaded down day on the first day back!
So there is no sign of a turn lower into wave (i) yet.
But this choppy action at the top could be a sign of exhaustion starting to set in.
That upper trend line has not been met by the rally either,
If the market rejects that line and continues lower for the week,
that will be a nice hat tip towards the momentum turn and rally fatigue!
Tomorrow;
The wave count is intact all the way down to the wave (v) label in grey,
then only variable at the moment is wave ‘v’ of (v).
There is room for that wave to wander a little higher if it so pleases.
The odds are lining up in favor of the downside in the short term again,
so I will be looking for that turn this week.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Wave (b) topped out at 18.16 on Friday last
and now wave (c) is turning lower again today.
The price did break the interim low within wave (b) at 17.67 today.
This level is a minimum target for wave (c),
but I expect we will see a further decline into 17.40
to complete the larger wave [ii] correction before the end of the week.
Tomorrow;
Wave (c) is underway and the target lies at the 62% Fib retracement level at 17.40.
Watch for wave (c) to hit that level,
then I will look higher for wave [iii] up to begin.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds decided to get more complicated today with a break of the high at 129.42.
This action seems to be creating a larger correction again.
With a 3,3,5 internal pattern it counts as a flat correction.
I have moved up the wave count by one degree on the short term chart.
This allows for a little more accuracy in labeling.
Tomorrow;
This correction should be done now.
Wave ‘c’ of (ii) has traced out a five wave internal pattern.
and price has again reached the upper trend channel line.
Watch for a return lower in wave ‘i’ of (iii) beginning very soon.
A break of 128.89 will signal wave ‘i’ has begun.