Hi folks.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
The alternate short term wave count is looking quite likely now after todays action.
The pattern off the high labelled wave [ii]
is made up of a series of three wave structures.
This fits the idea of a drop in wave [a] and a correction higher in wave [b].
WAve [c] down is now set to fall in a five wave pattern.
This will complete a 3,3,5 overall pattern in wave ‘B’ as shown.
If the price action continues in this vein tomorrow,
then I will switch to that new count.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a five wave decline to begin in a possible wave [c] of ‘B’.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
GBPUSD is up off the lows of wave ‘b’ again today.
So far we have a three wave rise off the low,
if wave ‘c’ is now underway,
this rally should develop in five waves over the next few sessions,
and hit that upper target level at 1.3330 to finish wave (ii).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to hold above 1.2952 and keep making its way up towards the target.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is higher today but we have not broken the 110.20 high at wave (v).
The wave count calls for a corrective decline into wave [ii].
So for the moment this action can be labelled as wave ‘a’ and ‘b’ to the downside,
with a drop in wave ‘c’ left to complete wave (a).
The high at 110.20 must hold for this count to remain valid.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (a) to continue lower and complete a three wave pattern at a minimum.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Another day and another new high,
but nothing changes in terms of the wave count.
The rally in wave (v) is extending for sure,
and it delays the turn lower into a new impulse wave down.
But that turn down to begin the bear market will come,
it is baked into the cake.
It is just a matter patience to identify the initial five wave move lower.
The larger trend channel in wave [v] green will allow for some more upside if the market can manage it!
The price has hit the upper trend channel within wave (v) grey this evening.
If that rally continues tomorrow,
price could reach that upper trend channel at about 29500.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (v) to put in a final high soon.
I am focused on what comes next after this blow off top is done.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is turning lower as we reach the close this evening,
so price seems to be topping in wave ‘b’ of (ii) now.
The price did not reach the previous 1563 high put in last week.
So wave ‘b’ is likely a running flat correction.
And wave ‘c’ should fall again into next week
and we should reach a final low for wave (ii) blue above 1500.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to continue lower.
A break of 1535 will rule out the alternate count and confirm wave ‘c’ is underway.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is finally moving off the lows today in a three wave pattern.
This action suggests wave ‘a’ of (ii) is now underway.
Wave ‘a’ should push up towards the previous fourth wave at 59.40 before correcting again in wave ‘b’.
It is very hard to make any specific predictions on wave (ii) until we get at least wave ‘a’ complete.
So we will have to wait and see how this plays out tomorrow.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘a’ to push higher again towards that 59.40 level.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The rally in wave (v) has another possibility emerging today.
It is possible to count the rally as an ending diagonal triangle as I have shown.
Todays rally is rising up towards the upper trend line.
And this action would typically complete a diagonal triangle pattern in wave ‘v’.
So if we see a drop off that line tomorrow,
that will favor this short term count.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ to complete early tomorrow.
Five waves down off the high is still the goal.
Whether it begins tomorrow,
or we have to wait until next week.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver has stalled its rise today also.
The price has not broken the wave (b) high,
so this high is still labelled wave ‘ii’ of (c).
Wave ‘iii’ of (c) should begin tomorrow.
A break of the 17.68 low at wave ‘i’ will confirm wave ‘iii’ has begun.
Wave [ii] should complete next week
and after that I will be looking much higher in wave [iii] over the rest of the month and into February
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (c) to continue lower.
18.15 should hold.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds seem to have topped out in wave ‘ii’ of (i) today.
Wave ‘ii’ completed a nice three wave pattern higher this week,
and now wave ‘iii’ down should continue lower over the coming week.
The key level lies at 128.54 at the moment,
a break of that level will confirm ‘iii’ down has begun.
Tomorrow;
Watch for the high of wave ‘ii’ to hold at 129.42.
A break of 128.78 should signal wave ‘iii’ is underway.