Good evening folks.
I will hold off on the video until tomorrow, so down to business.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
There is a rising probability that EURUSD may be ready to flip the script on us as I spoke about in last nights update.
But we don’t have any confirming price action to favor a bullish stance.
So I have not abandoned the current bearish wave count yet.
Todays rise can be viewed as a correction higher within wave ‘iii’ of (i).
So if the price returns to the downside again early next week,
that will reaffirm the bearish count.
Monday;
1.1205 must hold to remain bearish from here.
watch for wave ‘iii’ of (i) to turn lower again and break support.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
This whole week has been filled with corrective action in cable.
I favor the idea that this is a second wave correction to the upside,
and the price action is likely tracing out an expanded flat correction in wave ‘ii’ pink.
The target for wave ‘ii’ to complete and expanded flat is at 1.3215.
But the price must not break 1.3283.
Monday;
This final leg up in wave ‘ii’ should continue higher on Monday.
Watch for the low at 1.3012 to hold and wave ‘ii’ to complete at the target.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
Wave [i] pushed up to the resistance line at 108.72 today but did not break that level yet.
The high of the session marks wave [i],
and the drop off that high should mark the beginning of wave [ii].
I would expect wave [ii] to drop back towards the previous wave [iv] high at 108.63.
This level marks the 50% retracement level of the advance in wave [i] also.
Monday;
Wave [ii] should trace out a three wave decline over the next few sessions.
Watch for wave (a) of [ii] to continue lower on Monday.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW popped its head above that upper trend channel line today in wave (v) of [v].
And so far off that high we have see a drop into the close.
We are at a point in the larger wave structure where a major reversal should begin,
so that is what I am focusing on for the next week.
If this small decline this evening develops further on Monday,
That will suggest wave (i) of [i] is underway.
The key level in the short term count is the wave (iv) low at 28120.
A break of this level as part of a five wave decline off the high,
will be a big hint that the price is finally turning.
Monday;
Lets see if the new high holds.
And if wave (i) can race out a five wave decline early next week.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is up slightly today,
but so far that rise is in three waves into the high this evening.
This may easily develop further into a bullish impulse wave next week.
If that happens,
it will be a signal that wave (v) of [v] has begun.
The other alternate wave count is shown circled in red on the hourly chart.
It views the recent high at 1611 as the high of wave (i) of [v].
And the decline off that high is wave (ii) now underway.
This count will allow for further downside next week.
But it also calls for a bigger rally in wave [v] green.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 1540 to hold and wave ‘i’ of (v) to push higher towards 1600 again.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude seems to to in a holding pattern today after that sharp move lower earlier in the week.
It is possible that the sideways move is a triangle in wave ‘iv’ pink.
If this is the case,
then we will see a further decline on Monday to complete five waves down in wave (i).
A break of support at 57.60 would be a bonus at this point.
But the main action I want to see from here,
is a three wave correction higher in wave (ii) as shown.
That action will complete a bearish impulse wave off the high and set us up for a larger move lower in wave (iii).
Monday;
Lets see if the triangle wave ‘iv’ holds and if we get a final drop into wave ‘v’ of (i) possibly on Tuesday.
I will then look for a correction higher to begin in wave (ii).
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P met the upper trendline perfectly today and is falling off that high this evening.
This action is promising so far,
but I cant get worked up yet as the market has given me so many empty promises of late!
I have labelled the rally in wave (v) of [v] as complete now.
If we see a five wave decline off this high develop on Monday,
then we can say that wave (i) is underway.
Monday;
The key level for the S&P lies at the previous wave (iv) also.
that level is 3180, and if it breaks,
then the bearish outlook is game on!
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
I have labelled the rise today as part of wave (b) of [ii].
Wave (b) should trace out a three wave pattern higher over the coming session.
And then wave (c) should fall again back below 17.80 to complete the correction in wave [ii].
Wave [iii] will be confirmed with a break of the recent high at 18.84 again.
Monday;
Watch for wave (b) to complete in three waves at a lower high below 18.84.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds have traced out a three wave pattern today into the high of the session.
This rise is labelled wave ‘ii’ of (i).
And if this short term count is correct,
we should see a decline back below 128.13 again to begin in wave ‘iii’ of (i).
Wave (i) has the potential to carry the 10YR back to 125.00 again with ease over the next few weeks.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to begin with a break of 128.54.
That’s it from me here on a rainy and cold west coast of Ireland,
but that’s nothing new!
I wish you an enjoyable weekend.
God bless you all.
enda.