Good evening folk’s, I hope your day was a little less volatile than the markets!
Here is the updated weekly wave count for both Gold and Silver.
on with the show.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD is continuing lower today off that wave ‘ii’ lower high at 1.1205.
The price has broken the 1.1126 low at wave ‘i’ also,
so the price action is moving in the right direction at least.
Even if we have not seen the acceleration to the downside that I would have expected in wave ‘iii’.
So far the price has filled a trend channel in three waves off the high,
the price must continue through the trend channel in wave ‘iii’ and break 1.105 at a minimum in wave ‘iii’.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue lower and hit that band of support starting at 1.1065.
The larger trend change will be confirmed with a break of 1.0982.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable has fallen in three waves today
and has reached the lower trend line of that minor trend channel surrounding wave ‘ii’ pink.
The larger wave ‘ii’ idea now seems very likely,
and the price should push higher early tomorrow to fill that channel,
and complete a three wave correction overall in wave ‘ii’.
The price must also hold below 1.3283 in weave ‘ii’.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to top out at about 1.3230
and then turn lower again into wave ‘iii’ down.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY broke the invalidation level of the last short term count by 14 pips with that overnight spike lower.
This move triggered the short term alternate count for wave ‘C’.
And now wave ‘C’ of (E) is set at 107.65.
This low should complete the very large triangle wave [B] that I have been working on for a long time now.
And if this is true,
then todays spike higher will form the beginning of a very large move higher in wave [C].
Todays rally has hit the desired target area for wave (i) up,
by breaking into that initial resistance level at 109.19.
Tomorrow;
If wave (i) is now completing,
then wave (ii) should create a bullish higher low above 107.65 over the coming few days.
Watch for wave (i) to top out soon and then correct into wave (ii) at about 108.30 or so.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Going by the recent wild action in the markets,
all the talk about a renewed middle east war scenario is both very bearish following yesterdays drop,
and also very bullish after todays rally!
This market is anything but a rational pricing mechanism!
Todays rally has elevated the alternate scenario for wave (iv) ans (v) again.
The early morning sell off was completely retraced today.
This has left us with a three wave decline into the lows at wave (iv) labelled ‘a’ ‘b’ and ‘c’.
Wave (v) should break to a new high above 28872 at the wave (iii) high at a minimum.
We could see a top for wave (v) up at the trend channel in the area of 29000.
This will again complete a five wave pattern in wave [v] green,
and again,
open up the trap door below us with the very real chance of a rapid decline in wave [i] down.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) to top out.
The low of wave (iv) is getting lower with every itteration of the wave count,
but that wave (iv) level at 28120,
is initial signal point that the market is turning down into wave [i] as shown.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
I have altered the wave count in gold today from the weekly chart all the way down to the 1hr chart.
This is a matter housekeeping really,
I wanted to move the whole count up by one degree to allow for some more depth to the short term wave count.
Have a look at the longer term charts and you will see what I mean.
The overnight trade started with a sharp rally which pushed above 1600 for the first time in 7 years!
The price dropped right off that high for rest of the session,
and this evening we are closing at that 1554 level again.
The pattern over the alst few days can be viewed as a completed wave (iv) at todays lows,
or todays drop is wave ‘a’ of (iv) with more to come.
Either way,
I think this is a temporary correction,
and wave (v) of wave [v] should carry us higher once wave (iv) is done.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to create a lower high in three waves below 1600 again.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Well well well,
the rally in Crude oil may well have finally choked!
The overnight session spiked towards 65.40 and then immediately turned lower and for the rest of the day.
The price is down 600 points into the lows this evening.
And we have broken back below that 60.00 handle again.
So all this action is pointing to a reversal to the downside again.
The action today was so fast that it is hard to pick out the individual waves within wave (i).
But I think the magnitude of this decline fits with an impulse wave (i) down.
We should expect some sort of correction higher in wave (ii) by the end of this week.
And once that is in place,
we will be ready for a sustained selloff into wave (iii) of [iii].
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) to complete soon.
A break of 58.76 again would be a good fisrt hit for wave (i) -but not necessary.
Wave (ii) should begin before the end of the week also.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The stock market is getting frantic again these last few sessions,
which points to a growing disorderliness internally within the action at the individual stock level.
There is a tug of war going on,
and I think the bearish slant is growing now.
Todays whipsaw reaction higher has triggered the alternate count for wave (iv) and (v) of [v].
The price is back up to within a whisper of a new high this evening in wave (v).
The trend channel for wave [v] green suggests a top for wave (v) grey at 3280.
If we hit that level and then react sharply lower again,
then we are game on for a reversal into wave [i] again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) to hit that upper trend line and then head lower into wave [i] green again.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
The wave count in silver has got a revamp tonight also.
The recent high takes the wave [i] label.
And the decline off that high is viewed as the beginning of wave [ii] green.
Wave (a) of [ii] is underway today,
with wave (b) and (c) left to complete wave [ii] over the coming days.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) to begin tomorrow with a three wave rise to a lower high below 18.84.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds did break above the minimum target high for wave ‘c’ overnight.
We did not quite reach the upper trend line,
but it was close enough to call wave ‘c’ complete.
This action should now complete wave (ii).
And the selloff that followed today should be the beginning of wave (iii) down.
Wave ‘i’ of (iii) should push below 128.13 before wave ‘ii’ forms a bearish lower high.
Tomorrow;
130.17 must hold.
Watch for wave ‘i’ to continue lower towards that initial support level at 128.13.