Good evening all.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD has fallen today in line with the short term count and after a three wave corrective rise on Monday.
All things point to wave ‘iii’ down now in force,
but the price has stopped short of breaking the wave ‘i’ low at 1.1126.
And that is the final hurdle to confirming wave ‘iii’.
I would like to see wave ‘iii’ push all the way down to 1.138 before correcting in wave ‘iv’.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 1.1205.
Wave ‘iii’ down should continue into support.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
After a pretty uneventful days trade,
cable seems to be creating a larger three wave correction within wave ‘ii’.
Todays drop is likely a small ‘b’ wave within wave ‘ii’.
And if this is correct,
we should see a rise back towards the upper trend line again tomorrow to complete that pattern.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete below 1.3283 in three waves.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) should then drop down into support at about 1.28 over the rest of the week.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is higher again today after a small correction in wave ‘iv’ pink this morning.
It is now possible that wave ‘v’ of (i) is now underway.
And I would like to see wave (i) complete up around initial resistance at 108.86,
before any correction in wave (ii) begins.
Tomorrow;
The low at 107.76 must continue to hold as we pull up out of this very large degree triangle.
Watch for wave ‘v’ to push a little higher to complete wave (i) at about 108.86.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW has come off the boil a little today,
but so far that decline is not impulsive looking.
This might change tomorrow if we see a large step lower to begin wave (iii).
But so far I cant rule out the larger wave (iv) alternate count.
A break of 28300 would do the job and rule out that alternate count.
Wave (ii) seems to be a nice three wave expanded flat correction,
the internal pattern fits the 3,3,5 rule.
And wave ‘c’ has completed at a lower high.
So,
if wave (ii) is correct then there is more downside ahead for wave (iii).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold below the high at 28872.
Wave (iii) must begin to accelerate lower and break 28366.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold has risen today in a pretty corrective manner.
This action suggests wave ‘iv’ is not yet complete.
And we should now expect a larger three wave pattern to develop in wave ‘iv’
before the price rallies again in wave ‘v’ later in the week.
Tomorrow;
until the price completes this fourth wave correction,
we are likely to just bob around for a few more days as the pattern plays out.
At the moment,
wave ‘iv’ looks like a flat correction in progress
which should subdivide into an internal 3,3,5 pattern.
Watch for 1587 to hold at wave ‘iii’.
WAve ‘iv’ will likely complete in between 1535 and 1554.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is very quiet today as no-one really knows what to do with themselves,
given all the grandstanding over the Persian situation!
The price is still down off the recent highs,
with the possibility that we have a developing impulse wave in play now off that high.
Wave ‘i’ down looks like a five wave pattern.
Wave ‘ii’ is still underway and should trace out a three wave correction higher.
Wave ‘ii’ probably has another move higher to come to complete three waves at about 63.15 or so.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete early tomorrow and then turn lower again into wave ‘iii’.
A break of 60.49 will confirm wave ‘iii’ has begun.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P has the same uncertainty embedded in the action today.
The price has completed a three wave flat correction in wave (ii) at the high of the session,
and the price is falling again off that high again.
So we have a lower high in place,
but the action off the lower high is not impulsive yet.
If the price falls further tomorrow to break 3200,
that should be enough to confirm wave (iii) down has begun.
Tomorrow;
The all time high at 3263 must hold again.
The wave ‘c’ high lies at 3253,
and that level should also hold as wave (iii) down begins.
A break of the wave (i) low at 3205 will signal wave (iii) down has begun.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver has rallied in three waves today to a slight lower high below the 18.50 level at wave (i).
This three wave rally is labelled as wave ‘b’ of (ii).
And should be followed by a decline again in wave ‘c’ again to complete wave (ii).
Wave ‘c’ should hit about 17.80 before turning higher again to begin wave (iii) up.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to head lower into support to complete a three wave correction.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds are still correcting lower today
but the decline has slowed to a snails pace now.
This sideways drift is viewed as a small fourth wave correction in wave ‘c’.
Wave ‘c’ should continue higher once this correction completes.
And the target for wave ‘c’ remains at 130.50.
Tomorrow;
Watch for the price to push higher again in wave ‘c’.
A break of 129.63 will signal the final leg up in wave ‘c’ is underway.