Good evening all.
It is the last night of the year, and in the spirit of the moment I want to wish you all a blessed new year ahead.
I have a feeling that 2020 will go down as a cursed year for the markets in the history books.
But it does not have to be that way in our lives.
A friend of mine used to say that every day you can get out of bed is a great day!
So here’s to another 365 early morning rises ahead!
There will not be an update tomorrow, so lets get into tonights charts.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD moved slightly higher today into the band of resistance and the target at 1.1250.
It is not clear that wave ‘c’ is complete just yet,
but we are not far from that point going by the trend channels.
If we see a reversal and spike lower off the trend channels or close to 1.1300
that will signal the top of wave (c) is in.
Thursday;
This rally should peter out by Thursday evening
and we may even get the initial move lower into wave (i) of [iii].
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
The correction in wave (ii) cam alive today with a sharp spike higher this evening.
This has changed the short term count slightly.
It is possible that todays rally was a thrust from a wave ‘b’ triangle.
If that is the case,
then wave ‘c’ and wave (ii) should be near complete.
The price has reached the 62% retracement level,
So the next move lower off the highs should be the beginning of wave (iii) down.
Thursday;
Watch for the highs at 1.3515 to hold.
A drop back below 1.3100 again will indicate wave ‘i’ of (iii) has begun.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
The decline in wave [iii] of ‘C’ continued today
coming close to, but not breaking the initial support level at wave ‘A’.
This level is offering some support to the price right now,
so I am leaving open the possibility that wave [iv] is already correcting higher from todays lows.
Thursday;
Wave [iv] must complete below 109.18 at the wave [i] low.
and then we should see one last drop into wave [v] to complete the triangle in wave (E) again.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW is down slightly today but not is a very impulsive way jsut yet.
It is possible that the drop off the high has completed five waves down already,
that is my preferred count right now,
but we will have to see a corrective lower high develop in wave (ii) over the coming days
in order to unlock this bearish count.
Thursday;
It would be good to see the price fall below 28220 again in wave (i) down,
before turning higher in wave (ii).
Watch for a complete five wave pattern lower in wave (i).
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold has now quietly pushed up into the 1520’s again today
and it does not look like wave ‘iii’ is over yet.
Ideally I want to see the price break above 1535 resistance at a minimum.
It will be even better if we break 1554.
But I will just have to wait and see on that front.
Thursday;
1486 is the key support at the moment for gold.
watch for a break of 1535 at least before wave ‘iv’ begins.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is fumbling around just below the recent highs today,
so there is really nothing to go on just yet in terms of the next leg down.
Momentum suggests that the top is in now,
and price is about to turn lower in a sustained fashion soon.
The short term price pattern has not confirmed that view just yet though.
So I will have to wait and see what comes over the next few sessions in order to really nail down the short term count.
Thursday;
Price must hold below 63.50,
and we should see an acceleration lower in wave ‘iii’ begin before the end of the week.
A break of 60.00 will signal the price has turned.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is holding below the highs created last week,
after a possible five wave decline in wave ‘i’.
So that is a positive for the bearish case now.
As with the DOW,
I want to see a lower high in wave ‘ii’,
and a larger five waves down in wave (i) to break 3150 over the coming week.
This action will really raise the possibility that a long term top is now in for the index,
and we can then begin to look for possible entry points and key levels on the downside.
Thursday;
Watch for the highs to hold and wave (i) to continue lower for the next week.
A break of 3190 will raise the probability of the bearish count for wave (i).
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Wave ‘iv’ may be building an expanded flat correction after todays action.
The rise off 17.71 to a new high is in three waves,
and now we have a sharper move lower again this evening.
This overall pattern off the weave ‘iii’ high,
can be counted as a 3,3,5 flat pattern.
And todays decline is close to the minimum target for wave ‘iv’ at 17.71.
Thursday;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to complete and then a return higher again into wave ‘v’ of (i).
Wave ‘v’ could break above 18.31.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds have not given us anything to go on today.
The actoin has stalled completely over the last week really.
This lack of impetus does suggest we are still in some sort of correction to the upside now,
But this correction could also be the alternate count.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 128.65 to hold and then price should continue lower to break 127.89 and confirm wave ‘iii’ has begun.