Hello everyone.
I wanted to include the weekly S&P chart this evening, and I will speak to it later.
Also, this is the last update for the week as I am off to a family wedding tomorrow. It should be fun!
Here we got then.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
The action is EURUSD is causing a bit of a upset these days.
The decline this week is corrective looking,
and has used that 1.1115 level at wave ‘i’ as support.
Even though we have seen three separate breaks of that level,
the price continues to hold above it this evening.
So I am inclined to allow for another run higher to complete wave ‘iii’.
A break of 1.1199 again will confirm this short term count.
A break of 1.1038 on the downside will trigger that alternate count.
And then I will concentrate on wave [iii] down.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ up to hold above 1.1079 and continue higher to break 1.1199.
We should see an end to this wave (c) rally soon enough either way.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Todays further decline in cable seems to have completed wave ‘iii’ down.
I was looking for a break of support at 1.3049 in wave ‘iii’.
The reason being that I would like to see the larger wave (i) retrace most of the rally in wave (v),
before correcting in wave (ii) later next week.
Tomorrow;
The plan is simple from here,
I want a bearish impulse wave to complete at wave (ii) over the next week.
That should set the stage for a larger decline in wave (iii).
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is heading lower this evening in a more impulsive move.
The price has just pipped below 109.17 this evening.
If wave (iii) is now underway,
then I would expect to see a larger follow through over the coming few sessions.
Wave (iii) should retrace all of the previous wave (c),
and target the initial support level at 108.21 before completing and correcting in wave (iv) again.
Tomorrow;
Wave (iii) must continue lower as suggested.
This pattern is still on a knife edge because of how close wave (ii) came to breaking resistance.
Wave (iii) should fall into the 108.00 handle again tomorrow to stay with the current wave count.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The action in the DOW has opened up another possibility for the count today.
The triangle created over the last few sessions is now shown as wave ‘iv’ of (v),
rather than a larger wave (iv) grey as per last nights update.
Wave (iv) grey is now shown as a running flat correction.
This allows for a larger break between the final price of both waves.
And the rally off that wave (iv) low is a nice five wave pattern itself.
So, where does that leave us?
Todays rally is now counted as wave ‘v’ of (v).
If this short term count holds up,
we are now at the end of the line of a rally at six degrees of trend.
It has been a long and frustrating journey to this point.
But the journey is now coming to an end.
This wave pattern suggests we are about to head into an unprecedented bearmarket.
With the potential to rip the financial system apart at the seams.
I can only hope that I am prepared enough for whats to come next.
Tomorrow;
Wave (v) can push higher as long as price holds above the wave (iv) low at 28025.
If that level breaks in a five wave move lower,
it will suggest wave [i] down has begun.
Lets see what tomorrows action brings.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is moving higher against the tide of a new all time high in the stock market.
There is still no impulsive move in place to indicate wave ‘iii’ up is in play yet.
But so long as the price is still creating higher lows,
I am leaving the door open for an impulsive pattern to develop.
Tomorrow;
The bigger picture still remains bullish.
It would be good to see a push above initial resistance at 1486.50 tomorrrow,
to close out the week on a positive note and set up for a rally into wave ‘iii’ next week.
Again, 1458 must hold.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
The last leg up off the 58.00 low in crude is pretty hard to label as a five wave pattern.
There is simply too mush overlapping of highs and lows in the action.
So I am considering an ending diagonal pattern instead to complete wave ‘c’ of (c).
This would at least account for the choppy action.
But it does also suggest that this rally is now done,
and the next leg down is ready to get underway.
As usual,
if we see a five wave move lower to break initial support at 58.00 again,
that will be the signal that I am looking for.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ down to begin.
A drop back into the trend channel again will signal wave ‘i’ has begun.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P is closing at a new all time high again this evening.
this is the first time above 3200,
and it looks like it will be the last time above 3200 also!
With todays new high,
we now have a five wave pattern in place for wave (v) grey.
And this in turn completes wave [v] green and so on up the line!
A rally at 6 degrees of trend off the 2009 low is now complete give or take a few points.
You can see on the weekly chart I have shown above,
that the latest rally in wave (5) red,
has now touched the upper trend channel line which holds the whole pattern off the 2009 low.
This is another nail in the coffin for the bull market.
And it should lead to a major reversal dead ahead.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘v’ pink may have a little more upside left to complete.
The key level at the moment lies at wave (iv) grey at 3155.
What I am looking for from here is a drop back below that level in five waves to get the ball rolling to the downside.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is rising today also and closing above 17.00 again.
This is a good start,
but so far that rise is only in three waves.
So I need to see a further rally tomorrow to bring us back towards 17.60 again.
This would really ignite the bullish pattern for wave (i) up.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 16.87 to hold.
A break of 17.30 again will be the first signal that wave ‘iii’ is in force.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds fell into support this morning but then staged a rally off that 127.89 level again.
So for the moment,
we do not and confirmation that wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is underway.
And this leaves the door open for the alternate count.
There is a silver lining at the moment.
If we see a three wave recovery off todays lows to create a further lower high.
This action would suggest a lower degree 1,2, wave is getting wave ‘iii’ going now.
Tomorrow;
The interim high at 129.05 should hold now.
Watch for a small correction higher to complete and then turn lower into wave ‘iii’ proper.