Hello to all.
I hope you all are well.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
The price range continues to contract today in a possible wave ‘iv’ pink.
This is where the rubber meets the road for this wave count now.
Wave ‘iv’ of (c) must complete above 1.1115 in a triangle formation,
if we see a break of 1.1115,
that will trigger the alternate count and wave [ii] will be viewed as complete.
Then we can turn attention to wave [iii] down again.
Tomorrow;
watch for this triangle to hold above 1.1115
and for the price action to continue within the trendlines.
A break above 1.1199 again will signal wave ‘v’ of (c) has begun.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
I was expecting wave ‘ii’ to trace out a larger three wave pattern,
before turning down into wave ‘iii’ of (i).
But the market had other ideas today!
1.3422 now forms the top of wave ‘ii’,
and wave ‘iii’ down accelerated lower today off that level.
The action within wave ‘iii’ seems impulsive at the moment,
and is unfolding in five waves overall.
We should see the previous fourth wave at 1.3049 offer support for wave ‘iii’ soon.
And a correction off that level will be viewed as wave ‘iv’ of (i).
It is likely that we will see wave (i) complete by the end of this week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to complete tomorrow
and then a sideways move in wave should begin.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
The action in USDJPY is proving difficult to say the least these days.
The high for wave [b] is holding at 109.72 so far.
But the decline off that high is not developing into a third wave down yet.
This may be just a matter of being patient,
or it could be hinting at another alternate pattern developing.
I will have to wait and see if that is the case.
For the moment,
if we see a drop below 109.00 again,
that should signal wave (iii) of [c] is underway.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 109.70 to hold and wave (iii) down begin.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Todays sideways trade has opened up the possibility that we have a triangle underway in wave (iv) now.
This count does explain the lack of any breakout,
and the series of three wave patterns that have unfolded lately.
If this count is correct,
then we should expect a further pop to the upside by the end of the week in wave (v) of [v].
The price must hold below 28339 at wave ‘b’ for this triangle idea to remain valid.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘e’ to drop into the lower trend line again and complete wave (iv) at about 28200.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
It is almost as if there is a showdown going on in the gold market these days!
The guns are drawn,
but no-one is willing to pull the trigger yet.
The action is completely dead at the moment!
And without any action,
I can neither confirm or invalidate the current count.
So I will stick with my guns and hold onto the bullish outlook for now.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 1458 to hold again.
A break of 1486 should confirm wave ‘iii’ up.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude has hit the 78.6% retracement this evening in wave (c) of [ii].
This rally is now overdone and I expect to see a sharp move lower any day to begin wave [iii] down.
I have altered the short term count slightly this evening.
Wave [ii] is looking more like a double combination correction now.
With wave (c) of [ii] now completing a flat correction to the upside.
Wave (c) has a 3,3,5 internal structure,
and wave ‘c’ of (c) has now created a throw-over above the upper trend channel.
This action should be enough to call the correction complete.
Tomorrow;
Watch for this Fib retracement level to offer resistance to this aged rally.
Wave (i) down is coming,
we may even see an initial lower high complete by the end of this week,
in waves ‘i’ and ‘ii’ to the downside.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The triangle in wave (iv) underway in the Dow does not work in the S&P.
Wave (iv) of [v] still counts best as a running flat correction.
The rally out of that wave (iv) low at 3155 is tracing out a five wave advance.
And this action suggests that wave (v) of [v] is now well underway.
If this short term count is correct,
then todays corrective action may have brought us as far as wave ‘iv’ of (v) of [v].
Price seems to be crawling up towards that upper trend channel line now.
One more push in wave ‘v’ of (v) will bring us up to about 3200,
and close to filling the larger trend channel surrounding wave ‘5’.
Tomorrow;
the wave ‘iv’ low at 3155 is the key low at the moment.
The rally in wave (v) should hold above that level.
A break of that level in a five wave move the the downside
will be the first sign that the market is turning again.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is flat also today,
which fits with the idea that wave ‘ii’ is still in force.
Wave ‘ii’ will complete with one more drop into the lower trend channel line at 16.76.
Then wave ‘iii’ should be set to rally off that level again.
A break of 17.11 will signal that wave ‘iii’ has begun.
And wave ‘iii’ is expected to carry above 17.60 again before correcting again in wave ‘iv’ as shown.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘ii’ must complete above 16.52 and then rally again back above 17.11.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds are flat today without any real indication in the action that wave ‘iii’ down is underway.
Only a drop back below 127.89 again will signal wave ‘iii’ is underway.
So as long as the market tracks sideways like this,
it will mean that the alternate count is still a real possibility.
A break of 129.39 will confirm the alternate count for wave (ii)
and then we can expect wave ‘c’ to carry up to 130.46 again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 129.39 again.
If wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is now underway,
then we should see some sharper action to the downside begin soon.