Hi all and welcome back.
I have been dealing with leaking pipes and helping out at the local school today so I have fallen behind on my emails!
I hope to get back to ‘inbox zero’ tomorrow, and I appreciate your patience if you are waiting for a reply.
Lets get on with the show then.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD has again tracked higher today in a larger three wave form.
The rise over the last two sessions still looks corrective to the upside,
it may well be a small flat correction,
within the larger unfolding pattern in wave ‘iii’ pink.
The high at wave (ii) is holding for now,
so the short term count still favors the downside.
Only an acceleration higher to break 1.1115 will change that view.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to return lower,
a break of Fridays low at 1.1039 will signal wave ‘iii’ has begun.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable has pushed out above Mondays high at 1.3180,
but the pattern is very clearly corrective at the moment.
The action seems way too overlapping and congested to be viewed as impulsive in wave ‘v’ yet.
So I think this is best viewed as a larger three wave high within wave ‘iv’ pink.
Wave ‘iv’ is an expanded flat which explains this corrective high.
So we should see another drop back into 1.3050 to complete the pattern starting tomorrow.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to complete with a drop into 1.3050 again,
then we can look higher in wave ‘v’ of (v).
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is higher again today off the wave (b) low.
The price has risen in three waves in wave (c) so far,
so this action does open up the possibility that wave [b] green is tracing out a triangle.
If the price continues to contract in range tomorrow,
that action will favor the triangle scenario in wave [b].
Tomorrow;
For the moment I will stick with the idea that wave [b] is working out in a flat correction.
Watch for wave [b] to continue higher and break 109.10 to complete.
Wave [c] of ‘A’ should then turn lower towards the end of this week.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Another pogo stick trading day today!
The price did move sharply lower at the open but then regained the loss by mid morning.
This action is very hard to read mush into right now,
as we did not push the price conclusively in any direction yet.
for the moment, I am willing to allow for the bearish count to stay in force.
I did speculate that a sharp move lower off Fridays highs would favor this count,
and we got it,
so now what!
I have labelled the rally off the early morning low as wave ‘ii’ still underway.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a clear three wave pattern in wave ‘ii’ to unfold,
this should create a lower high below 28036 at the wave (ii) high.
A break of 28036 will trigger the alternate count for wave [v],
so this level is now key to the development of the short term pattern.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold has drifted sideways holding slightly above the 1460 level for the last few sessions.
The pattern this week is in three waves,
which does suggest a corrective move to the upside.
This is not ideal given the short term count is calling for wave ‘iii’ to begin now.
With this in mind,
I have raised the trigger level for the alternate count to minimize risk at this point.
If the price drops below 1458 at last Fridays lows,
then I will switch to the alternate count.
this will allow for wave ‘c’ of (c) to drop once more into 1440,
to complete a larger and more complex fourth wave.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘iii’ up simply must begin with a break above 1484.
That will be enough to save the bullish count and set us up for a rally in wave [v] to really kick off.
1458 must hold at this point.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is now sitting at a lower high below Fridays spike high at 59.85.
The pattern off Mondays low is in three waves,
so this action fits with the idea that wave ‘ii’ is now in place.
If this is the case,
then wave ‘iii’ down will get underway at any moment.
Todays highs reached 59.17,
if the price returns lower again and breaks 58.17 that will signal wave ‘iii’ of (i) has begun.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold below 59.85 at the wave [ii] high.
Wave (i) down should turn lower again with a break of 58.18.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
It is early days,
but the S&P is looking interesting to the downside again!
The drop into the low of the session can be viewed as a five wave pattern.
And todays rally could be the start of wave ‘ii’ pink as shown.
This is a speculative pattern for sure,
but I was looking for a spike lower to begin wave (iii) down.
And so far that is what we have.
The alternate count is not off the table yet,
but I am willing to give this bearish pattern time to work out now.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold below 3150.6 and then turn lower into wave ‘iii’.
A break of 3102.50 at the wave ‘b’ low will signal that wave ‘iii’ down has begun.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
It sure looks like silver has run out of sellers these last few days!
The action off Fridays lows is in no way impulsive and still counts as a correction higher,
but this action does suggest that wave ‘v’ will not have much strength behind it.
Downside momentum is completely dead right now,
The minimum expected target for wave ‘v’ of (c) to end lies at 16.52,
So if we see a push into 16.50 again,
and then a pike off that low then I will be very interested in the upside again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a break of 16.50 to complete five waves within wave ‘v’.
Then we can look higher in wave (i) again.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
I am not convinced that wave ‘ii’ pink is complete just yet.
the price has dipped this evening again,
but I suspect we will see one more push into 129.40 again
to complete three waves in wave ‘ii’ tomorrow.
At that point we will have a bearish impulse pattern in place off the wave [ii] high,
and we can begin to look for wave [iii] down to begin.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to close out at 129.40 and then turn lower into wave ‘iii’.