Hey there everyone.
Welcome back to another new week, one of the last of the year!
We seem to be at that cross roads again with a choice to make.
Will we hang on to the madness for another few weeks and ring in the new year on a high note?
Or will we just get on with the inevitable right now like good responsible adults who need to take the medicine, suffer the hang over and learn from our mistakes.
Its not likely is it!
Here we go.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD is still undecided between both short term counts.
The price action today is showing a three wave rise into this afternoons high at 1.1078.
This action suggests a correction higher,
rather than a move towards the alternate count.
So the main wave count stays for tonight.
I have moved up the short term count by 1 degree this evening,
this does not change the expectation for further declines,
but it does give us a little more detail to work with.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (iii) down to get underway with a drop back towards 1.1000 in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
A break of 1.1115 again will trigger the alternate count.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
GBPUSD pushed slightly higher today to break out above the wave ‘iii’ high.
The rise seems to be in three waves and hit a high at 1.3180,
the price is falling off the high again.
This action looks more like an expanded flat correction in wave ‘iv’.
If that is the case,
I expect to see a small decline again tomorrow to complete wave ‘iv’ at about 1.3050.
Once wave ‘iv’ completes,
I will look higher again into wave ‘v’ of (v).
Tomorrow;
Watch for one more drop in wave ‘iv’ to complete an expanded flat correction by tomorrow evening.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY dropped to a new low at 108.42 today.
This completes wave ‘c’ and wave (b) in a clear three wave form.
The price popped higher again this afternoon,
and this should begin wave (c) up.
Wave (c) should break to a new high above wave (a) at about 109.10.
And that will complete the three wave correction in wave [b] green.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to continue higher for at least tomorrow.
When wave [b] completes,
it will be time to turn lower again in wave [c].
this should get underway by Wednesday I suspect.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW is holding pretty steadily just off Fridays highs today.
This action is beginning to favor the alternate count.
So if we see a rally to a new high tomorrow,
that will trigger the alternate count shown for wave [iv] and [v] green.
As I mentioned before,
even with the alternate count there is very little left on the upside.
The alternate wave [v] green could hit 28500,
but then it will be time to look lower again!
So,
it’s a case of damned if you do and damned if you don’t for stocks.
Tomorrow;
a drop back below 27700 will favor the current count
and signal that wave ‘i’ of (iii) has begun.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is no better off today after a flat trade which is holding at 1460 this evening.
I have switched to another interpretation of the recent action.
This involves a series of 1,2, waves off the low at 1445.
The latest decline is in wave ‘ii’ of (iii).
As usual,
this count calls for a rally now in wave ‘iii’,
and this better come quick,
or I will be forced to look for another new in wave (c) blue at about 1420 or so over the next week.
Tomorrow;
the price must hold above 1450 again,
a break of this level will trigger the alternate count.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
We have a decline off the high in place today in crude.
This could be a small ‘i’ ‘ii’ wave now underway.
If so,
we should see a three wave correction in wave ‘ii’ complete tomorrow at a lower high.
And wave ‘iii’ of (i) will then be set to push back below 55.00 again before the end of the week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold below the recent highs at wave [ii] green.
A drop back below 57.00 again will signal wave ‘iii’ of (i) is underway.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P looks set to push out above the recent highs again after todays action.
I have not changed to the alternate count this evening,
as only a break to a new high will actually trigger that alternate officially.
Given the precarious nature of the action of late,
the market is just as likely to drop sharply,
as rally to a new high!
So I will remain vigilant this week.
As I mentioned with the DOW,
A new high in wave [v], if it happens, will be very short lived.
The alternate wave [v] might hit 3180 or so to complete five waves.
And then it will be very vulnerable to a sharp collapse in wave (i) off that high.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to push lower again.
A break of 3100 again will signal wave ‘i’ has begun.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Wave ‘v’ of (c) is almost there this evening!
The flat sideways action today can be viewed as a minor fourth wave,
within this wave ‘v’ decline.
This corrective action today
does suggest another drop tomorrow in a final fifth wave to complete wave ‘v’.
So that is what I will look for.
tomorrow;
Watch for a clear five wave pattern to complete in wave ‘v’ of (c).
This market will get a shot in the arm to the upside again soon to kick off wave (i) blue.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
The 10YR did make a small recovery today to begin wave ‘ii’ pink as shown.
the initial move higher is in three waves,
so wave ‘ii’ is likely a flat correction with an internal 3,3,5, pattern.
I don’t think the move off the wave ‘i’ low is big enough just yet.
So I will wait for another push up to about 129.50 to complete the correction over the next few days.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to continue higher in a corrective fashion tomorrow.
If we see any weakness at 129.50,
that will signal wave ‘iii’ down is near.