Good evening to you all,
and thanks for hanging around for another day!
Down to business.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
The market has been very quiet for the last few sessions
which does fit with the idea that there is a turn occurring at this point.
EURUSD is holding below 1.1115 created at yesterdays high.
This level should continue to hold tomorrow if wave ‘iii’ of (i) is now underway.
only a break of 1.0980 will signal that wave ‘iii’ has begun.
And if that happens,
we can then rule out the alternate count.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold and ‘iii’ to turn lower again.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
We are getting pretty close to the end of the line for the rally in cable now.
Wave ‘iii’ of (v) has pushed higher today,
but we should see wave ‘iv’ come in tomorrow
and price should correct off the high back below 1.3100 again in three waves.
Wave ‘v’ of (v) could push to the 1.3380 level at a stretch,
but I am skeptical on that front.
As this rally in wave [c] does look pretty jaded now!
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to complete and ‘iv’ of (v) to correct slightly off these highs.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is falling off the wave (a) high today in line with the short term count.
This decline is likely only wave ‘a’ of (b) at the moment,
where wave (b) will create a three wave pattern to a higher low above 108.43.
I expect wave (b) will chugg along for another day or so before turning higher into wave (c).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ and ‘c’ to complete a three wave decline above 108.43.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The rally off the low at wave (i) is a reasonable five wave pattern into todays highs.
With that in mind,
I am allowing for a larger three wave pattern to unfold over the coming week in wave (ii),
as shown on the short term chart.
If wave ‘a’ was a five wave move,
then the larger correction in wave (ii) is likely a zigzag correction with an internal 5,3,5 pattern.
5 waves up in ‘a’,
then a 3 wave decine in wave ‘b’ which is now underway,
followed by a 5 wave rally to complete a bearish lower high at wave (i).
Wave ‘b’ should drop again tomorrow to create a higher low above wave (i).
And then wave ‘c’ will rally again early next week to finish the pattern.
The alternate count shows wave (ii) already complete,
I can’t rule this out either,
so I think we should remain pretty vigilant incae wave (iii) comes in with a bang soon.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘b’ of (ii) to fall again tomorrow to complete a three wave pattern.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold seems a little lost these days,
drifting sideways and not in a rush to go anywhere!
I expect this action will end soon also,
and I am banking on a rally higher in wave ‘iii’
to pull gold out of this miserable rut we are in.
The current sideways action is looking corrective again.
If we see a push out above the declining trend channel at 1492 again,
that will signal wave ‘iii’ is in force.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iii’ up to continue and break out of this small sideways correction.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude broke above the recent high at wave ‘iii’ again today and then spiked lower again.
The session is now ending with the price holding below the wave ‘iii’ high.
The rally in wave (c) is viewed as an ending diagonal now,
so this requires a five wave wedge pattern into the high,
with each internal wave tracing out three waves.
Wave ‘v’ of (c) can be viewed as a complete three wave move at todays highs,
so this suggests that the decline will continue again tomorrow
and wave (i) will take over again next week.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (i) down to create an initial lower high to get the ball rolling.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The rally in the S&P has halted at the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree today.
This is a common target for a correction to reach,
and this does keep the more bearish alternate count in play right now.
For the moment I am allowing for a larger correction to unfold in wave (ii).
This should create a three wave move as shown over the coming week.
And I expect the final high in wave ‘c’ of (ii)
to be close to the current highs now at wave ‘a’.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘b’ of (ii) should now fall in three waves
and complete above the wave (i) low.
Watch for this to develop tomorrow and I will look for wave ‘c’ to begin on Monday evening.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is teasing us now with todays small rise off the low.
The price reached a low at 16.79 yesterday.
And the pattern off that low looks like a three wave correction higher.
This action still suggests another drop in wave ‘v’ of (c) is to come,
and once that is done,
I will be free to look higher again in wave (i) up finally.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (c) to complete with a spike lower to break 16.63
and then price should turn higher again in wave ‘i’ of (i).
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Tuesdays high in Bonds reached 130.10,
and the price has fallen over the last two sessions in a reasonably impulsive fashion.
The move off the high is not large by any means,
but it is possible that we are turning lower into wave ‘i’ of (i) now.
The fact that the recent rally in wave ‘c’ did break the wave ‘a’ high,
adds to the appeal of this idea.
So,
if we see the drop continue tomorrow,
and we get a break of 128.69.
That should be regarded as the beginning of a larger turn into wave (i) of [iii] to the downside.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to hold at 130.10.
Wave ‘i’ down should continue towards 128.69.