Hi there everyone, I hope the day went smoothly for you.
It’s been a heck of a days action across the board so I won’t dilly dally around.
Onwards!
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
The rally off support this week
now shows a reasonable five wave form into todays high.
The price has not quite reached above 1.1096 just yet which is the minimum target for an expanding flat.
If this rally is a minor ‘c’ wave within wave ‘ii’
then we should see a break of that level and a return lower to begin wave ‘iii’ soon.
A break of 1.1179 will trigger the alternate count.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete and then return lower to begin wave ‘iii’.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable has broken above the first hurdle at 1.2984 today.
This is the high of the previous wave ‘b’ of ‘iv’.
And this move is the first signal that wave (v) is now underway.
Wave ‘iii’ of (v) will be confirmed with a break above 1.3012.
We cam very close to that today,
but price is stuck below that resistance level so far.
Tomorrow;
I want to see wave ‘iii’ of (v) continue higher and break resistance.
Wave ‘iii’ should hit above 1.3100 before correcting in wave ‘iv’ of (v).
1.2878 must hold.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY has now fallen in three waves off the recent high at wave (D).
I was expecting wave [a] down to be at least a three wave decline before turning higher into wave [b].
So we may have a completed pattern now in wave [a].
I have labelled the decline as complete,
so I will be expecting a turn higher in wave [b] possibly beginning tomorrow.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [a] to find support at 108.21 and then for wave [b] to begin.
Wave [b] should complete around 109.20.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
This market is starting to heat up a bit now!
In two days trading we have wiped out the gains of the whole month of November!
Now that is impulsive action for you!
Wave ‘ii’ finished pretty quickly and the market turned down sharply for most of the session.
It looks like wave ‘iii’ is now done.
There is a recovery rally underway now off the session low.
I have labelled this as wave ‘iv’ of (i).
So I would expect this correction to complete tomorrow.
And then wave ‘v’ should come in and take the market lower again before the end of the week.
That is the ideal path for a five wave pattern to complete wave (i) down.
We will just have to wait and see what form wave ‘iv’ takes tomorrow.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to complete by tomorrow evening,
Wave ‘iv’ should complete below 27670 on the high end.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold made some gains today and reached the initial resistance level at 1479.
This is a welcome respite from the continual corrective action we have seen recently.
The price briefly broke 1480,
but has dropped back slightly this evening.
If wave ‘iii’ of (i) is now underway,
then we should see a clear push above that 1480 level again tomorrow.
Ideally wave ‘iii’ will break above 1500 again before any correction in wave ‘iv’ begins.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to continue higher,
and begin to move towards a five wave advance off the lows.
1516 is the key resistance above us now.
If this level breaks,
then we can confirm that wave (i) has begun.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Wave ‘iv’ is continuing its sideways grind today,
with a very slight new high above Mondays rebound high this evening.
I still think this action is best described as a correction sideways in wave ‘iv’.
And wave ‘v’ of (i) should bring us back below 55.00 again soon,
to complete wave (i) down.
Tomorrow;
the price is back below the session high again this evening,
so this count be the beginning of wave ‘v’ now in play.
So,
watch for wave ‘v’ to break the wave ‘iii’ low at a minimum before wave (ii) begins.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P took another sharp move lower today also in wave ‘iii’ of (i).
This is definitely the type of action I was looking for to begin a trend change.
But I am refusing to get overly excited yet,
until we have a clear five wave pattern lower in place off the high.
The price has bounced off the session low this evening
and has reached back into that support resistance band shown between the two previous fourth waves.
This resistance level is a reasonable target for wave ‘iv’ to complete,
Once it does complete,
I will expect to see another move lower begin in wave ‘v’ before long.
There is still a chance that this rebound is within wave ‘iii’ and not wave ‘iv’,
but we should know better tomorrow.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iv to hold below 3100 and return lower into wave ‘v’ by tomorrow evening.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver took a step higher today which a welcome sign that the corrective phase is finally ending.
If this is wave ‘iii’ up now,
then we should see a break above 17.22 tomorrow.
Wave ‘iii’ up should break above 17.60 with ease to confirm the turn is in.
So in short,
this rally must continue tomorrow to take us out of the hole we have been stuck in for so long now!
Tomorrow;
16.80 must continue to hold,
Price should break 17.22 at a minimum and then head towards 17.60.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds rallied back to life in wave ‘c’ today.
The price did pip above wave ‘a’ at the session high,
this confirms the current count and we should expect a continuation higher in wave ‘c’ to complete the larger pattern.
Wave ‘c’ will reach equality with wave ‘a’ at 130.75.
So that will be the target for wave ‘c’ now.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a five wave pattern higher to complete over the coming few days in wave ‘c’.
Then I will turn my attention lower again to begin wave [iii] down.