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Good evening and welcome back to a new week.

Here we are in December already and the stock market is still holding up.

We have the rest of the month to get this bear-market going now,

so here’s hoping that todays action is the beginning eh!

Here we go.

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EURUSD.

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EURUSD 1hr.

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Finally we get a move to clarify the wave count somewhat!
Todays rally up to initial resistance at 1.1096 has narrowed the possibilities for the short term pattern.
The more bearish count I was working with last week has now been ruled out.
And the first alternate count is now in force.
The rally is viewed as wave ‘ii’ now topping out in an expanded flat correction.
The price should pop above 1.1096 again and then head lower into wave ‘iii’ of (i).

If we see a rally above 1.1179,
that will trigger the next larger alternate count as shown.

Tomorrow;
Watch for a small five wave pattern to complete wave ‘ii’ just above 1.1100 and then wave ‘iii’ should turn lower by tomorrow evening.

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GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 1hr.

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Cable did not spike like the other USD pairs today,
this does raise a little suspicion in me.
Especially since I am expecting wave ‘iii’ of (v) to begin.
This does not rule out the current count just yet.
Wave ‘iii’ may only be warming up now.
A push above 1.2983 will signal the beginning of wave ‘iii’ and we should expect an acceleration higher after that.

Tomorrow;
1.2826 must hold again at the previous wave (iv) low.
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to get going higher tomorrow.

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USDJPY.

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USDJPY 1hr.

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USDJPY took a sharp turn lower back below the 109.00 level again today.
This move lower should be enough to confirm that wave ‘A’ of (E) is now underway.
Wave ‘A’ should trace out at least a three wave decline as shown.
And I expect that wave [c] of ‘A’ will find support at the 107.80 level.

Tomorrow;
The recent high at wave (D) should now hold for the next Month or so while wave (E) is in force.
Wave [a] green should continue lower towards 108.00.

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DOW JONES.

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DOW 1hr.

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Could this be the first blood of the bear-market?
Not a moment to soon, if it is!

The Futures almost reached 28200 early this morning.
This did not hold for long as the selling immediately came in once the pre-market trading commenced.
The market then opened lower and fell for most of the session today.
The action is definitely impulsive looking,
and it finally the price moves in line with the early warning signals that have been developing for a while now.

Todays action is definitely a welcome development given my bearish stance,
but as usual,
I want to see this decline continue for the next week or so,
and trace out a clear five waves down in wave (i) as shown.

Once we have a larger bearish signal in place at wave (ii),
Then I will get excited for real!

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to create small lower high,
and then wave ‘iii’ of (i) should continue lower by Wednesday evening at the latest.

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GOLD

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GOLD 1hr.

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I did expect to see a larger move higher today off the back of that stock market selloff.
That has not happened yet,
but I remain hopeful that we will see wave (i) up gain strength this week.

The price continues to hold above 1450 today which a key level is the short term.
And the price is up off the lows.
If we see a push above 1479 tomorrow that will signal wave ‘iii’ of (i) is underway.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iii’ up to begin properly with a break of that 1479 level.

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CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL 1hr.

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The Volatility that we saw in crude on Friday did spill over into stocks today,
so the relationship holds between the two so far!
The next step for crude is now is a for a complete five waves to complete over the next few sessions in wave (i) down.
And that is now far away.

Crude has rebounded today after that sharp move lower on Friday.
The rise into today’s highs is in three waves so far,
and I have labelled this as wave ‘iv’ of (i).
Wave ‘iv’ can create a few different patterns from here,
but once it completes,
wave ‘v’ then needs to fall back into support at 53.70 again to complete a clear five wave pattern off the high as shown.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to hold below the 57.00 level again.
I would like to see wave ‘v’ break below 55.00 at a minimum.

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S&P 500.

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S&P 500 1hr

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The S&P is sharply lower today off that all time high also.
As with the DOW,
I have labelled this as the first move lower of a larger five wave pattern.
Todays decline is a good start,
but I am looking for that larger five waves down to build off this action.
In order to create a substantial bearish signal for the market.

The market is up off the session low this evening,
and I have labelled this as a correction higher in wave ‘ii’ of (i).
This suggests we will see a corrective lower high build tomorrow,
and then another sell off should follow in wave ‘iii’ this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to ho;d below the all time high at 3154.
Wave ‘iii’ down should break support and bring us back down to 3075 again.

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SILVER.

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SILVER 1hr

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Silver is leaning more towards the alternate short term count today,
with the narrowing trading range and continuous corrective action on display here.

It is possible that this is a fourth wave triangle now underway,
and wave ‘v’ of (c) will follow to a new low.
but I just cant shake the idea,
that the market is shifting at a large degree towards wave [v].
So I am leaving the possibility of a turn higher this week on the table now.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 16.63 to hold on the low end.
Wave ‘iii’ will be confirmed with a break of 17.60 this week.

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U.S 10YR.

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US 10YR 1hr.

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Bonds surprised on the downside today with a break of the 129.00 handle.
This has altered the short term count slightly,
but I still think there is another rally left in wave (c) up to the 130.60 level,
before we turn lower into wave [iii].

The rise in wave (c) now looks to be a three wave pattern.
This suggests the larger wave [ii] is a complex correction.
Wave (c) should complete at the upper trend channel line again.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ up to begin tomorrow;
A break of 129.80 will confirm the new count.

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