Good evening folks.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD can’t catch break these days!
Another day without a break of initial support at 1.0988.
We got seriously close this evening,
The low of the session got to 1.0992.
so maybe the overnight session will do the trick for us.
As long as the downside bias and 1.1096 is intact,
then I will stick to the idea that wave ‘iii’ of (i) is now in force.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold again at 1.1096,
wave ‘iii’ may even create a lower high below 1.1096 before accelerating lower again.
Lets see if we first break support to begin wave ‘iii’.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable completed wave ‘e’ of (iv) at 1.2827 early this morning.
The price has held above the wave ‘c’ low at 1.2824 by a whisker!
but we can see this evening that the rally into wave (v) should now be underway with that spike off the low.
If wave (v) has begun,
then we should see 1.2827 hold for the coming few days,
and a five wave rally out above 1.2983 at a minimum.
Price could possibly hit as high as 1.3200.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (v) to push up to initial resistance at 1.2983.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY has rallied out above the trend channel for wave [b] today which is forcing a rethink of the short term count.
The price must hold below 109.49 for the current short term pattern to remain valid.
If that level breaks then we are simply dealing with a new high for wave (D) as shown by the alternate count.
In that case,
wave ‘A’ of (E) will follow in short order anyway.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [c] to retun lower overnight to complete wave ‘A’ at support of 107.87.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
We now have a new high ans a possible five wave rally in place off the wave (iv) low at 27670.
So there is a very real chance of a completed pattern at a large degree in wave [v] again.
Along side this pattern completion,
we have bearish momentum divergence on the daily, 4hr and now hourly charts again.
And the general unhealthy nature of the advance
as indicated by leadership reversal in the wider market,
widening credit spreads and ultra high optimism.
This is a recipe for disaster for sure.
All we need is five waves down!
Tomorrow;
Watch for any sign of an early turn lower in the market.
It is possible that the initial drop into wave (i) will involve a gap lower in some form.
Either within wave ‘i’ of (i),
or as part of an acceleration within wave ‘iii’ of (i).
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
If wave ‘iii’ up is going to come at all,
then it better start quick!
Gold made a promising start yesterday but the price drifted back off the highs today again.
so far the low at 1450 is holding,
but I do want to see a sharp acceleration higher begining tomorrow
in order to save the current short term count.
Tomorrow;
This has been a frustrating time for us gold bugs,
but everything points to the end of a corrrection now for gold and a return higher to begin soon.
If 1445 breaks,
then I will switch to the alternate count and look for a final low again in wave (c).
A break of 1479 will confirm wave ‘iii’.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude spiked lower today after creating a very small lower high in wave ‘ii’.
Todays move lower should be the beginning of wave ‘iii’ down.
We must see a follow through tomorrow and a drop back below the 57.00 handle to begin wave ‘iii’ of (i).
Tomorrow;
Watch for a return lower in wave ‘iii’ of (i) to break the back of the relentless correction higher.
58.73 must hold again.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The series of minor five wave moves continues today in the S&P.
Wave ‘v’ of (v) now shows a small pattern consisting of five waves up itself, off the wave ‘iv’ low.
This advance shold prove to be one of the last moves, now,
And the rise in wave (v) is now within a mere 4 points of hitting the equality mark with wave (i).
Again,
this serves as a warning to us that this rally is severely advanced,
and just waiting for the moment of reversal.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) to reach equality and possibly hit the trend line at about 3160.
Wave (i) down is moments away now.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
So far the rise off the low has failed below 17.21.
The price did fall today,
but this looks very much like a three wave decline
into the session low as it stands.
17.21 remains the key level at the moment.
If we see a rally above that level it will signal wave ‘iii’ has begun.
Then I will turn immediatley bullish into wave [v] up.
Tomorrow;
Watch for price to hold above 16.80 now and continue higher in wave ‘iii’.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
I have shown a slightly different interpretation this evening for wave (c).
The recent action off the wave ‘iii’ high looks like it is still corrective in nature.
The price is most likely creating a larger flat correction within wave ‘iv’ now.
This suggests price will drop into about 129.00 to complete wave ‘iv’ .
And then wave ‘v’ of (c) can begin and push above 130.46 to complete.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to complete at the lower trend channel line at 129.00.