---

Hi there everyone.

---

EURUSD.

---

EURUSD 1hr.

---

EURUSD has stalled for the last few trading days
right at the expected resistance zone.
The action over the last few days has left a whole lot to be desired though!
We have not seen any decline to begin wave ‘iii’ down yet,
and this is pushing me towards that alternate count s the hours drift on.
I will allow one more day for wave ‘iii’ to begin,
and if instead,
we see a break of 1.1090 again, that will trigger the alternate count.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ down to begin and 1.1090 to hold.

---

GBPUSD

---

GBPUSD 1hr.

---

Another quiet day in cable also which is a little disappointing.
The price did drift below 1.2897 this afternoon
and this now rules out wave (v) as a simple impulse wave.
I am still open to another pop to the upside in wave ‘v’ of (v),
But now wave (v) will classify as an ending diagonal instead.

Tomorrow;
1.2762 is the level to watch on the lower end.
If this breaks,
it will suggest that the market is turning down at a larger degree.
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (V) to rally once more to break 1.3012 at a minimum.

---

USDJPY.

---

USDJPY 1hr.

---

The overlapping action of late seems to fit a running flat correction in wave (ii)
rather than the beginning of wave (iii) down.
The price has fallen off todays high again,
so it is quite possible that wave (iii) down has already begun.
If we see a drop below 108.21 again,
that will confirm wave (iii) of [c] is underway.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold at 108.73.
Wave (iii) down should continue and hit the low of wave [a] at 108.21.

---

DOW JONES.

---

DOW 1hr.

---

The DOW is heading lower again this evening after a choppy trade earlier.
It is possible that this evenings decline is wave ‘iii’ of (i) as shown.
But I remain open to a few different interpretations,
so I will just have to wait for some more action to narrow the range of possibilities in the short term.

In terms of the 4hr chart:
The decline over the last couple of days has shifted the momentum situation to a very bearish stance.
RIS is now firmly negative after a centre line cross.
And Macd has turned down again off a bearish divergence,
after a series of lower high extremes over the last few weeks.

In general,
the outlook is turning sour.
now we need the wave count to follow suit.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) to continue lower over the coming days.
and 28090 should continue to hold.
If the decline continues tomorrow in a fairly uniform fashion,
then the current short term count should fit well.

---

GOLD

---

GOLD 1hr.

---

The sideways action over the last few sessions in gold
has created a series of higher lows off the wave [iv] low at 1445.
If the short term count is correct,
then wave ‘iii’ is now in the process of extending higher.
And we should see the price again rally again into the end of the week.
The lows of the session today are viewed as a second wave correction within wave ‘iii’.
If the price pushes higher tomorrow back above 1480,
that should signal the beginning of wave ‘iii’ proper.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 1455,
wave ‘iii’ should push back towards 1500 again over the coming days.

---

CRUDE OIL.

---

CRUDE OIL 1hr.

---

There are still a whole lot of crude oil bulls out there these days!
the ‘buy the dip’ mantra was in full force today.

The drop into the early morning lows today completed a five wave decline off the recent high.
I have labelled this as wave (i) of [iii].
the strong rally off that low is labelled as wave ‘a’ of (ii).
This suggests we will see a large three wave side way correction over the next few days.
And in this case,
wave (ii) should complete below 58.00.

I have shown a possible alternate count also this evening.
The five wave decline can also be viewed as the final drop within wave ‘b’ of (c).
And off that low wave ‘c’ of (c) will continue towards 59.00 again to complete wave [ii].

I do not favor this count,
but I have to stay open to the possibility.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to drop again tomorrow to create a higher low above 54.84.
58.15 must hold.

---

S&P 500.

---

S&P 500 1hr

---

The S&P took another step lower late in the trade today.
This is favorable to the bearish outlook,
but I want to see the decline continue for the rest of the week to strengthen the bearish case.

So far the drop off the recent high is in three waves,
If wave ‘iii’ of (i) is now in force,
then we should see the drop continue,
and we should see a break of initial support at 3076, the previous fourth wave.

So,
in general this is a good start,
but we need more dominoes to fall into place in order to build a bearish signal off the top.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (i) to remain in force.
Wave ‘iii’ of ‘i’ must drop again tomorrow.

---

SILVER.

---

SILVER 1hr

---

Silver is holding above the wave ‘ii’ low at 16.73 again today.
And the action is corrective so far,
with a very narrow and overlapping trading range.
This action supports the idea that we are building a base at the moment,
in preparation of a larger move to the upside in wave (i) blue.

Tomorrow;
Watch for 16.73 to continue to hold.
If the short term count is correct,
wave ‘iii’ should push above 17.59 with ease by the end of the week.

---

U.S 10YR.

---

US 10YR 1hr.

---

Bonds are higher today without the expected acceleration in wave ‘iii’ of (c).
It is still possible that the previous bearish count is correct,
But at the moment I am happy enough allowing this pattern to clear up
before switching to a bearish stance again.

Tomorrow;
If we see a rally above 130.46 again,
that will confirm the current count.
And then we can expect wave (c) to push up towards the next resistance level at 131.97
The recent top at 132.39 must hold though,
So I know we are running a tight margin for error up at those levels.

---