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Hi there everyone,

I do hope the weekend was fruitful and fun!

I always point out when John Hussman posts another article on his site.

And tonight is no different.

Here it is; 

A Striking Collection of Duck-Like Features The title alone is worth the click!

Again he hits the nail on the head regarding where we stand in the cycle, and it aint pretty.

Right now he estimates that the 12YR total return for the S&P is 0% give or take.

This means we are going to go nowhere including dividends for over a decade. The one scenario that fits this estimation is a very large bearmarket dead ahead.

the big question remaining is this – When does it start?

Lets see if we can answer that over the coming weeks!

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EURUSD.

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EURUSD 1hr.

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EURUSD has reached into that small resistance zone this evening.
The top tick hit 1.1090 and retreated very slightly this evening.
The pattern off Thursdays lows has traced out a clear five waves up.
so now we have to figure out if this advance is just the completion of wave ‘ii’ pink as shown,
or,
are we working on a larger wave (c) as per the alternate count.

Tomorrow;
What happens from here is crucial.
If the price simply corrects lower and holds above 1.1000 tomorrow,
that will favor the alternate count,
then we can expect wave (c) to rally to about 1.1300 over the following week.

If the price turns lower sharply and breaks 1.1000,
that will confirm wave ‘iii’ of (iii) down is underway.

Watch 1.1000,
that level is the key from here.

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GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 1hr.

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Cable has risen again today off that possible wave ‘ii’ low at 1.2813.
The action is hardly inspiring yet,
but wave ‘iii’ may just be getting off to a slow start.
I have marked 1.2813 as an important support in the short term.
If that level breaks from here,
it will signal the current short term count is wrong.

So far the action favors the bullish count for now.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iii’ of (v) to push higher and break above the wave (iii) high at 1.3012
Wave ‘iv’ pink should then hold above that level for the remainder of the week.

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USDJPY.

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USDJPY 1hr.

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USDJPY fell sharply this evening off the intraday high at 109.06.
The rally into that point can be viewed as a three wave correction in wave [b],
if this is correct then wave is now complete,
and wave [c] down is underway.

Todays drop is labelled wave (i) of [c].
Wave [c] is expected to fall in a five wave pattern for the rest of the week,
this will complete a 3,3,5 pattern in the larger wave ‘A’.
Wave [c] should hit the lower trend channel line at 107.60 as shown.

Tomorrow;
Watch for 109.06 to hold.
A break of 108.22 again should confirm wave [c] has begun.

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DOW JONES.

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DOW 1hr.

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The DOW is trading higher again today overall.
The price hit a new all time record high again.
And so far this evening,
the price has corrected in three waves off that level slightly

I have labelled the new high as wave ‘iii’ of (v),
and this decline off the high as wave ‘iv’ still ongoing.
It is possible that the market will just consolidate for a day or so in wave ‘iv’
depending on what pattern develops.
And after that we should see another rally into wave ‘v’ of (v).

Wave ‘iv’ should hold above 27840 at the wave ‘i’ high,
in order that the pattern in wave (v) remain a simple impulse pattern.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to hold above 27840 for the moment.
If wave (v) is to fill the trend channel shown,
then we might see a final top in the area of 28350 before we fall again into wave (i) down.

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GOLD

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GOLD 1hr.

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Gold has completed a three wave decline to a higher low above 1445 today.
The decline tiday filled the trend channel nicely in wave ‘ii’ pink,
the price found support at the level of the previous wave (a).
The low of the session today hit 1455.90,
and the rally off that low is a nice sharp move.

Todays action does support the idea that we have completed the correction in wave [iv]
but we will need to see the 1455.90 low ho;d from here,
and wave ‘iii’ continue higher for the rest of the week a

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold above 1455.90.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) should push back up to 1500 later this week.

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CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL 1hr.

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Crude hit a top of 58.15 very early in the premarket today,
the price then fell sharply once trading in London opened and the prce is now closing near the lows.
This is exactly the type of action I would expect after wave [ii] completed.
So I have labelled todays decline as the beginning of wave [iii] down.
And with that,
we should see a clear five wave pattern develop to the downside this week
in wave (i) of [iii].
A break of 53.74 will be a clear signal that a large degree turn into wave [iii] has begun.
So I will use that level as a target for wave (i) down.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (i) down to continue for the rest of the week.
Wave ‘ii’ of (i) should create a lower high below 58.15 soon enough.

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S&P 500.

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S&P 500 1hr

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The S&P created a new all time high also today at 3123.46.
Wave (v) is likely to push a little higher over the coming few days.
If wave (v) fills the trend channel shown,
then we will see a final high in the 3150 area to complete wave [v] green.

Obviously I don’t think this rally has much left in the tank now.
I have left an allowance for higher prices in the short term,
but I think we will see wave (i) come in strong before the end of the month.
We may even have a bearish sell signal in place before then with waves (i) and (ii) completed.

Its a waiting game now.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to hold above 3103.
Wave ‘v’ of (v) should carry us higher towards then end of the week.

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SILVER.

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SILVER 1hr

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Silver declined further into support early today,
but the price has recovered well off the lows of the session.
I have labelled waves ‘i’ and ‘ii’ complete at todays low,
and the sharp move higher off that low is labelled as the beginning of wave ‘iii’.
I think wave ‘iii’ should push up towards 18.00 again in order to put a final end to that correction in wave [iv].

Tomorrow;
Watch for 16.64 to hold again at wave [iv].
price should push above 17.10 tomorrow.

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U.S 10YR.

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US 10YR 1hr.

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The price has held up well today despite the idea that we should be heading into a third wave down now.
I am going to stick with that idea for the moment,
but I will have to see a clear move lower this week to confirm the short term count.
A break of 127.94 again will do just that,
so 127.94 is a key level now in the short term.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to begin with a drop off todays highs towards support.

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