Evening y’all!
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
Todays low reached 1.0995.
So we now have a break of the 1.1000 level at wave ‘i’ pink.
This action should favor the bearish count now.
As the alternate count in wave ‘iv’ pink
should not break the high of wave ‘i’ at 1.1000 according to the rules of Elliott wave.
Tomorrow;
From now on we should look for some reaction higher to complete weave ‘ii’ of (i).
And that previous shoulder at 1.1090 seems the most likely target / resistance.
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete with a final run up to that area
before we fall again into wave ‘iii’ of (i).
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable continues its march to nowhere today!
It is possible that wave ‘ii’ pink is still underway as the action looks very corrective.
In that case it is vital that support holds at 1.2762.
A push higher tomorrow that breaks above 1.2896 will signal wave ‘iii’ has begun.
And a break of 1.3012 will confirm it.
Tomorrow;
the key level for the short term count lies at 1.2762.
Wave ‘ii’ must complete above that level before wave ‘iii’ carries us higher again.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY did fall towards initial support today at 108.63.
I did expect wave (c) to break that that level at a minimum before completing.
As a break of that level will favor the idea that wave (D) has topped out.
It is possible that wave (c) is complete at todays lows,
although wave (c) should trace out a five wave decline.
The pattern of the fall off wave (b) is in three waves so far.
So wave (c) should be in the early stages yet.
If the price turns lower again over night and hits the 108.00 level tomorrow,
that would favor this short term bearish pattern.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave (b) to hold at 109.28.
Wave (c) should continue lower towards 108.00.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The stock market is behaving very much like Nero these days,
It continues to fiddle away and party hard.
While below the surface, Rome is burning down.
Wave ‘c’ of (iv) did not quite make the low at wave ‘a’ at 27517 today.
The pre market low reached 27561.
Because of this,
I have labelled wave (iv) as a running flat correction,
it is not an ideal pattern, but it fits the action well so far.
Todays rally can be viewed as wave ‘i’ of (v) now underway.
The price has hit a triple top this evening on the short term chart.
After a small correction in wave ‘ii’ tomorrow,
wave ‘iii’ of (v) should break out to a new high later this week.
Tomorrow;
The final five waves up in wave (v) will not take long to trace out,
and there week should be more than enough to get it done.
Watch for wave ‘ii’ of (v) to hold above 27561 and then turn higher again into wave ‘iii’.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is back above the previous support of wave (a) blue at 1459 today.
The high of the session hit 1466.79 so far.
While I cannot call an end to wave (c) and wave [iv] just yet,
I am definitely leaning very much in favor of that idea now.
If we complete a small corrective higher low above 1446 this week in wave ‘ii’ pink,
that should be enough to signal that the turn higher is beginning.
If the high at 1467 is broken again,
that will signal wave ‘iii’ of (i) is in force.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold above 1446.
We might get a small bullish impulse wave in place by tomorrow evening of that happens.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude did rally today off that lower trend line,
but it is still hard to know exactly what pattern wave ‘iv’ has taken!
I will have to just let this play out and review the action again tomorrow.
If wave ‘v’ of (c) is now underway,
then wee should see a rally up to 58.70 at the 62% retracement level over the coming days.
When we hit that target,
I will turn my focus lower again into wave [iii] down.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘v’ should hold above 56.23 at wave ‘iv’ and continue towards 58.70 by Friday.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
There are a couple of options for the short term count this evening.
So far, the price has held below the high at 3102 after a rally today.
This rally is labelled wave ‘ii’ of (i) and has completed a lower high this evening.
The market is heading lower again as we hit the last hours trading.
So this action fits with the idea that wave ‘iii’ of (i) is now underway.
In this case,
Wave ‘iii’ should break 3076 tomorrow and continue to initial support at 3047 by Friday.
And if that happens it will re-inforce the bearish short term count.
The alternate count is quite simple,
it views Tuesdays low as the final low of wave (iv) with wave (v) now underway.
both counts are tracking the formation of a top here.
So in both cases,
the market will head substantially lower by the end of the month.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 3102 to hold and wave ‘iii’ of (i) to break 3076 by Friday evening.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
It is possible that wave ‘i’ of (i) is now underway off that recent low at 16.63.
The price action today is not perfect,
but it is definitely heading the right way!
The price is pushing above the recent sideways move in wave ‘iv’ of (c).
this is positive,
but not a complete confirmation of the bullish outlook just yet.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘i’ to continue higher and break 17.00 again before correcting in wave ‘ii’ pink.
the low at 16.63 must hold right now.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
We now have a three wave correction higher complete off the recent low at wave ‘i’ pink.
The pattern has filled the trend channel this evening.
And todays rally has traced out a five ave pattern itself.
So all indications are pointing to a completing correction in wave ‘ii’.
If this is correct,
then wave ‘iii’ of (iii) should begin soon.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete below 129.37.
Wave ‘iii’ down will be confirmed with a break of 127.94 again.