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Good evening to all.

If you have been around for a while,

you already know how excited I get with the prospect of the bearmarket beginning!

So this time I will keep it subdued until we get some serious downside action to confirm that the stock market has in-fact topped out.

But,

I cant help thinking that todays drop fits the picture well.

We will see soon enough.

On with the show.

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EURUSD.

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EURUSD 1hr.

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I have switched to the alternate count for EURUSD today.
This involves a five wave rally in wave (c) as shown.
Rather than the tree wave rally that I was working with for the last few weeks.

Now wave [ii] is back to a more conventional pattern.
The overall correction in wave [ii] now counts as a standard running flat.
With an internal 3,3,5 pattern.
The outcome of this pattern should also be the same.
Wave [iii] down should carry the price down to new lows pretty soon.

Tomorrow;
We are close to the end of wave [ii] now.
Watch for wave ‘v’ of (c) to complete with a break of 1.1180.
And then we should see a turn lower in five waves next week in wave (i) as shown.

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GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 1hr.

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I am still working on the same pattern in cable today.
The price has drifted higher again today,
but the action looks more corrective than impulsive.
The price has not made a new high above 1.3012,
so I will stick with the idea that waves ‘i’ and ‘ii’ are complete.
If we see a fall below 1.2786 tomorrow,
that will signal wave ‘iii’ has begun.
the high at wave [ii] must hold at 1.3012.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iii’ of (i) to get started by breaking 1.2786.
If 1.3012 breaks,
that will simply mean wave [ii] is creating one final high.

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USDJPY.

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USDJPY 1hr.

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USDJPY dropped like a stone today!
So the spike high yesterday did infact complete wave ‘C’ of (D).

4hr Chart;
Now it is time to focus on wave (E) of the larger triangle.
And this should create a three wave decline over the next few weeks.
Wave (E) should complete above 104.50 at the wave (C) low.

Tomorrow;
I have labelled the initial decline today as wave [i] of ‘A’ of (E).
Wave ‘A’ can be either a three wave decline or a full five wave decline.
We will just have to wait and see on that front.

Watch for wave [ii] to begin tomorrow and create a lower high below 109.28.
Next week should bring a sharp move lower in wave [iii] of ‘A’.

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DOW JONES.

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DOW 1hr.

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Today decline has perked my interest on the bearish side.
There is a very real chance that wave [v] of ‘5’ topped out at yesterdays highs.
If that is the case,
then wave ‘5’ blue is a truncated fifth wave.
Meaning it did not complete with a new high.

A truncation will occur when the market has gone too far too fast.
A kind of momentum death occurs,
and wave five just does not have the steam to hit a new high.

I think that scenario fits in this case for sure.

Tomorrow;
The best indication of a final top for wave ‘5’ and the bull market as a whole,
is if we see a five wave decline develop from here.

So next week could prove crucial for the overall bull market.

We already have a rebound underway off the low of the session.
Lets see if this creates a lower high in wave (i) by tomorrow evening.

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GOLD

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GOLD 1hr.

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So far so good for the end of the triangle in wave [iv].
The rally off the low at 1481 is pretty impulsive looking at the moment.
And a break above 1520 again should signal the beginning of a new bull run in gold.

The price has not pushed to a new high yet in wave ‘i’ of (i) of [v],
but we are getting close,
todays high reached 1514.

Tomorrow;
The best indication that wave [v] has begun,
will come with a five wave rally off the 1481 low and a break of 1520.
Then a three wave decline to a higher low in wave ‘ii’ as shown.
That is the focus for the next few days.

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CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL 1hr.

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Crude took a hit also today which may be wave ‘iii’ of (i) now underway.
The only caveat to this short term count is that wave ‘ii’ seems to have created a running flat correction.
This is not ideal,
but it is not a deal breaker either!

If the price continues lower tomorrow down into the low 53’s,
that will boost the bearish count that I am working with.
If we get a break of the previous wave (b) low at 52.84,
that should be enough to confirm that the market has turned into wave [iii].

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iii’ of (i) to continue lower and break support
to confirm that wave [ii] has topped out and wave [iii] has begun.
55.60 must hold.

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S&P 500.

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S&P 500 1hr

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The S&P500 did create a new all time high this week.
So we do not have the same difficulty with calling todays declines wave (i) down of a new bearmarket decline.

The price needs to drop in five waves now
and create a clear impulse wave lower over the next week
in order to get excited for the downside potential from here.

Tomorrow;
I have labelled todays decline as wave (i) of [i].
The market has rebounded this evening also.
So I want this rebound to create a three wave correction in wave (ii),
and complete a lower high below 3050.

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SILVER.

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SILVER 1hr

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Silver has continued higher today within wave (d) of [iv].
The price has reached a lower high below 18.32 now,
the high of the session hit 18.16.
So we are in the area for wave (d) to top out and then head lower into wave (e).
Wave (e) must now fall in three waves and complete above 17.60

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (e) to begin off todays highs.
wave ‘a’ of (e) should break 18.00 again tomorrow.

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U.S 10YR.

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US 10YR 1hr.

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The 10YR caught the usual Pavlovian bid today off the weakness in stocks.
I have altered the short term count slightly after the rally.
This rise is large enough to be counted as wave ‘a’ of (ii).
Wave ‘b’ and ‘c’ should hold the price within a trading range over the next few sessions.
The target area for wave (ii) lies between 130.49 and 130.84 as shown.

tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ of (ii) to begin with a drop back below 130.00 again.
Wave ‘b’ should complete above 129.02.

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