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Welcome back to all.

A new week and a new all time high in stocks to begin that week.

And again we may have a bearish signal in crude to lead the larger market downwards.

So lets see how this one play out over the weeks ahead.

So down to business.

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EURUSD.

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EURUSD 1hr.

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Off the top of wave [ii] EURUSD has only created a three wave decline into todays lows.
It is quite likely that we have a series of 1,2 waves now developing off that high,
In that case wave ‘iii’ is now underway,
with further downside to come as wave (i) develops.

But I want to just be a little cautious at the moment,
until we do get a clear five wave move lower
to confirm that wave [iii] down is in-force.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iii’ of (i) to continue lower and break 1.0990 at a minimum.
That action will be a signal that wave (i) down is underway,
and a bigger decline lays ahead of us.
1.1179 must hold.

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GBPUSD

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GBPUSD 1hr.

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There is a similar waiting game in play in cable this evening.
The decline off the high is in three waves so far.
So;
The price pattern must continue lower this week,
and trace out a five wave pattern off the wave [ii] high.
And when that happens,
we can prepare for a much larger decline into wave (iii) of [iii].
but we need the correct price action in place before calling a turn into wave [iii].

Tomorrow;
I want to see five waves down develop over the coming days.
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 1.2952.
Wave ‘iii’ down should break 1.2580 at the previous wave (a) high.

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USDJPY.

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USDJPY 1hr.

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USDJPY is higher again today which is in line with the short term count.
Wave (iii) of [v] is drawing close to completing now.
And wave (iii) blue should trace out a five wave rally up to about 109.50 to complete.

The trend channels on the short term chart suggest a rally up to about 110.00 to complete wave (D),
but this is not a complete necessity,
Once the internal wave pattern is complete in wave [v] of ‘C’,
then I will begin to look for wave (E) to begin.
And that may come as soon as this week.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) of [v] to continue higher.
Price should hold above 108.64 as wave (iii) completes.

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DOW JONES.

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DOW 1hr.

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We are inching closer to a new all time high now in the DOW.
And it looks like the internal wave pattern is developing nicely.
Todays high is viewed as wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [v].
So wave (iii) has more upside left over the coming days.
and this should carry us out to a new all time high by the end of the week.

I have altered the short term chart slightly this evening.
The recent sideways grind seems too large for a correction within wave [iii].
It seems to fit better as a completed correction in wave [iv] green.
If this is true,
then wave [iv] is already underway.
And the final high of this pattern is closer than previously thought.

So;
If wave [v] is now underway,
then we can make some price projections for the final high in wave [v].
If wave [v] equals the length of wave [i],
that gives us a final high at 27520.
And if wave [v] equals the length of wave [iii],
that gives us a final high at 27730.
So now we have a target range to watch out for over the week ahead.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (iii) to continue higher after a small correction in wave ‘iv’ of (iii).
Wave ‘iv’ should complete near the 27000 area and hold above the wave ‘i’ high at 26850.

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GOLD

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GOLD 1hr.

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I have switched to the alternate count for gold tonight.
The sharp drop today has triggered the move.
Wave [iv] is now viewed as a triangle which completed at 1480 last week.
The move higher off that low is viewed as wave ‘i’ of (i) of [v].
If this short term count is correct,
then wave [v] of ‘3’ should carry the price right up to about 1650 over the coming months before correcting again in wave ‘4’.

Tomorrow;
The decline in wave ‘ii’ is a three wave pattern,
and it should hold above 1480 tomorrow.
Wave ‘iii’ of (i) should break 1520 again this week
to confirm that the triangle wave [iv] is complete.

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CRUDE OIL.

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CRUDE OIL 1hr.

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Crude had a small early rally overnight to complete wave ‘v’ and wave (c).
The price is back off that high today in a nice sharp move.
I have labelled this decline as wave ‘i’ of (i).
And we should see the price continue to fall this week
to complete five waves down as shown.

I expect wave (i) down to hit and possibly break the previous wave (b) low at 52.80.
A break of that level will be a clear signal that the market is turning back down into wave [iii].

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (i) down to continue.
A small lower high in wave ‘ii’ should complete tomorrow below 56.90.

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S&P 500.

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S&P 500 1hr

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Let the celebrations begin,
a new all time high in the S&P this evening.
And all is well with the world!

I have altered the count slightly in the S&P this evening.
This does not change much in terms of the outlook,
but the short term count fits the action a little better now.

Wave [v] is underway,
and it should reach its completion by next week.
Wave (iii) of [v] is creating an extension at the moment.
and that has carried us to a new high today.
We should see a further rally for the remainder of the week
with a small correction in wave ‘iv’ of (iii) the only hurdle to get over

I have plotted some price projections for wave [v] here also.
If wave [v] equals wave [i],
that gives us a target at 3087.
And if wave [v] reaches the length of wave [iii],
that will give us a final high at 3110.
Lets see how it goes for the rest of the week.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave (iii) to continue higher for the next few sessions.
Price should hold above the wave (i) high at 3015.

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SILVER.

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SILVER 1hr

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Silver has triggered the alternate count also today.
Wave [iv[ is now labelled as a triangle which completed at 17.42.
The rally out of that triangle is labelled wave ‘i’ of (i) of [v].
The price has fallen in three waves off that wave ‘i’ high at 18.32.
Wave ‘ii’ should complete above the wave [iv] low at 17.42 by tomorrow.
That action will complete a bullish impulse wave to begin wave (i) up.
And wave ‘iii’ of (i) should then rally above 18.73 again.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete above 17.42 tomorrow.
A break of 18.32 again will signal wave ‘iii’ has begun.

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U.S 10YR.

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US 10YR 1hr.

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Bonds are lower again today and broken below 129.45,
which confirms the decline into wave ‘i’ of (iii) is underway.
Wave ‘i’ of (iii) should continue lower for the coming few days
and hit the target at 128.52 before correcting higher again in wave ‘ii’.
If this short term count is correct,
then the high at wave (ii) of 130.12 should hold from now on.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ down to continue in five waves.

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