Good evening to all!
Back to it again tonight,
but I am nowhere near 100% yet, so I will leave the video until the weekend when I get some energy back.
Enough of my moaning,
Down to business.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD broke out above the 1.1110 target on Thursday and I think that should conclude wave [ii].
The price has created a throw-over above the upper trend channel line in wave ‘c’ of (c) which indicates a completed pattern.
The rally in wave (c) is in a three wave pattern,
Most likely a 3,3,5 flat correction higher.
So the overall correction in wave [ii] is a complex triple three correction.
If the correction in wave [ii] is now complete,
then we should expect wave [iii] down to begin soon.
Monday;
We should see wave (i) of [iii] get underway with an initial decline back towards 1.0990 again.
If we see a five wave decline off these highs
that will be a strong signal wave (i) is underway.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable has completed a three wave pattern to the upside over the last few weeks.
Wave (c) of [ii] created a throw-over this week also.
The price spiked lower on Thursday,
and this evening we are closing below that high.
So it is possible this is the first move lower in wave (i) of [iii].
This remains to be seen,
but we are in a good area for a reversal to occur given the pattern now in place.
Monday;
Lets see if Thursdays high holds at 1.2988.
Watch for five waves down from here in wave (i) over the coming week.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY has sold off in three waves over the last few sessions.
I think this move has begun a larger correction in wave [iv] which should take the next week to complete at a minimum.
The first three wave decline is labelled wave (a) of [iv].
Waves (b) and (c) will most likely churn sideways for a while,
as is so often the case for a fourth wave.
This initial target for wave [iv] lies at the previous fourth wave at 108.02.
Monday;
The outlook for the next week or so is for more downside action in a very corrective formation.
Wave [iv] must hold above the high of wave [i] at 107.44.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
I have changed the wave count slightly this evening after a further selloff today in the DOW.
The move over the last few sessions looks more corrective than not,
So I have labelled this decline as wave (iv) of [iii].
Wave (v) should come in next week and push to a new high to complete wave [iii].
Wave ‘c’ of (iv) should find support at 26650,
and then turn higher again early next week to begin wave (v).
If we give a reasonable estimate of 1 week for each of waves [iii], [iv] and [v] to complete.
Then we are looking at a new all time high in three weeks time,
to complete this bull market in the region of the 27700 area.
Things should get exciting again for bears like me!
Monday;
Watch for wave (iv) of [iii] to find a final low on Monday.
Wave (v) will be confirmed with a break of 27120 again.
Wave [v) should push to a new all time high,
possibly by the end of next week.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
GOLD has failed to break higher in a third wave yet.
That does not rule out the bullish count by any means,
but it does leave the door open for a larger wave [iv] correction,
if we don’t see some positive action next week.
I don’t favor this idea though.
Wave (i) and (ii) have such a clear 5/3 pattern in place off the wave [iv] low
and this action suggests that the next move will be a rally in wave (iii).
That is what I am looking for next week.
Monday;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold at 1474.
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) will be confirmed with a rally above 1520.
A break of 1500 again will be a good sign that wave ‘iii’ has begun.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude rallied over the last few days in wave ‘ii’.
This has created a new lower high below the wave [ii] high at 54.95.
Price halted without breakint the wave [ii] high and has returned lower this evening.
I have not changed the outlook for lower prices coming our way.
But I have added an alternate count showing the possibility of a larger wave [ii].
This count still calls for a decline next week in wave (b) of [ii].
Which should find support at 51.36 before turning higher in wave (c).
Monday;
The main wave count still stands for now.
watch for wave ‘iii’ of (i) drop into that 51.36 level again to kick start wave (i).
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P has bounced off the lows of the session this evening
which should end the correction over the last few days.
I have updated the short term count to account for this action.
The decline traced out three waves,
and is viewed as wave (iv) of [iii].
Wave (v) of [iii] should now begin,
and carry the price to a new high over the coming week.
Monday;
Watch for wave (iv) to hold at 2975.
If todays rally is the beginning of wave (v),
then a new all time high is very likely next week to complete wave [iii].
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver has had a lackluster week also,
but the bullish wave count has not been ruled out by any means.
the wave [iv] low continues to hold at 16.89,
and There has been at least some upside action off that level.
Waves ‘i’ and ‘ii’ have also completed a smaller degree bullish impulse wave to the upside.
So the door is open for wave ‘iii’ to enter and rally up towards 19.00 again.
That is what I am looking for next week.
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 17.15.
A break of 17.51 again will signal wave ‘iii’ has begun.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
After spiking lower out of the triangle wave ‘iv’ on Thursday.
Bonds seem to have completed another five wave pattern lower off that wave [ii] high.
Wave (i) down now keeps the bearish outlook intact.
Wave (ii) is underway off that low,
with waves ‘a’ and ‘b’ of (ii) already in place.
Wave ‘c’ should carry higher on Monday up to about 130.57 again.
This marks the highest extent of the previous fourth wave.
And also the 38% retracement level of wave (i).
Monday;
Watch for wave ‘c’ of (ii) to complete a three wave correction by Tuesday.
Wave (iii) down should begin next week.
That’s it from me for the week.
Thanks for your patience yesterday!
Wishing you all a great weekend.
And see you back here on Monday evening again.
God’s speed and Blessings to you all.
Enda.