Good evening to all!
EURUSD.
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EURUSD daily.
There is no water tight pattern to fit the recent action into in this correction higher.
I still believe this rally is wave (c) of [ii],but it is possible that wave [ii] is working through a more complex pattern than previous thought.
We may have a triple three combination going on here.
Wave (c) itself may end as a three wave form rather than a five wave rally as shown recently.
Either way,
I think the next major move is to the downside to begin wave [iii].
Tomorrow;
What ever pattern wave [ii] does end up with,
I think we should see price hit 1.1110 again
before turning lower again into wave [iii].
Watch for wave (c) to complete an ending diagonal with a rise in wave ‘v’ tomorrow.
GBPUSD
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Cable rallied in wave ‘v’ of (c) today to reach that 1.2780 resistance high.
The priec has now filled a trend channel in three waves off the low at wave [i].
And the internal pattern in wave (c) of [ii] is all but done.
So,
once wave ‘v’ of (c) is done tomorrow it will be time to look lower again to begin wave [iii] down.
Tomorrow;
There may be another pop higher in wave ‘v’ of (c) tomorrow to complete the internal pattern.
Watch for wave to top out,
A decline back below 1.2580 again will be the first signal wave (i) of [iii] has begun.
USDJPY.
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USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is higher again today,
and the price has taken out the wave (iii) high of 108.62 this evening.
This rally is labelled wave ‘iii’ of (v) of [iii] as shown.
So there should be a little more upside left to complete wave [iii].
as wave (v) of [iii] should create an internal five wave pattern itself.
I do think that the momentum will now start to fall off over the next week
as wave (D) comes to a close.
The price should continue to rise but wave [iv[ will slow the progress.
The overall target for wave ‘C’ lies at about 110.00 near the upper trend channel.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (v) to top out overnight and wave ‘iv’ to correct early tomorrow.
DOW JONES.
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Todays rally confirms the current short term bullish wave count,
as the price has now exceeded the the 27000 level at the previous wave (b) high.
This pattern is now clear to break to a new all time high above the July high at 27398.
Although it should prove to be a Pyrrhic victory.
The new high will be a fatal last gasp effort in wave [v] of ‘5’ of (5) of [5].
And I am aware that we have been here before in terms of price and count.
But each time the market hits these levels
it basically free falls as if we hit an air pocket.
That is no coincidence.
There is no rhetoric, calculation or fundamental dynamic,
to justify the current lofty level of the market.
And I also think that people know this in their bones,
But we just can’t resist a bubble, can we!
The air is thin up here and we are dangerously running on fumes again!
The short term count shows a series of higher highs to be set in wave [iii] and wave [v].
This pattern will mist likely take us to the end of the month to complete.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a small correction to begin in wave ‘iv’ of (v).
The price should hold above 26870 at wave ‘i’ pink.
GOLD
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The pattern in Gold is on edge this evening.
Prices dropped sharply this afternoon,
it is still possible that this decline is part of wave ‘ii’ of (iii),
but the price must hold above 1474 in that case.
If we see a drop below 1459,
that will invalidate the current bullish short term count.
And then we will have to look for another low for wave [iv] green.
For then moment I am sticking with the idea that wave (ii) is complete or very near to it.
Tomorrow;
Watch for price to hold above 1474 first,
and then turn higher in wave ‘iii’.
If that happens and price breaks 1500 again.
Then we are on for a large rally in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
The low at wave [iv] must hold.
CRUDE OIL.
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Crude may have completed a ‘i’ ‘ii’ pattern off wave [ii] at todays sessions highs.
Wave ‘i’ down is a clear five wave pattern,
and wave ‘ii’ looks to be an expanded flat correction.
The price is pushing lower this evening again.
This may be the beginning of wave ‘iii’ of (i).
If so,
we should see a continuation lower tomorrow towards support.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 53.80.
Wave ‘iii’ down should break 51.50 before wave ‘iv’ begins.
54.90 must hold at the wave [ii] high.
S&P 500.
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The S&P is on its way to a new high also,
with a break of that previous wave (b) now confirming the short term count.
It is likely that wave [iii] will create that new high above 3027 by the end of the week,
before wave the price corrects in wave [iv] again.
Although it may look it, this is far from a bullish wave count.
In fact,
this wave count is about as bearish as it gets in terms of what comes next.
The current highs are only matched in magnitude by the highs of 2000, and 1929.
2008 was relatively undervalued in comparison to the current insanity.
And that is saying something!
Back to the short term;
Wave [iii] will top out over the next couple of days with a break of 3027.
Wave [iv] will correct off that high but should hold above 2960 at wave [i].
Wave [v] is coming for us all,
we just gotta be patient.
SILVER.
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Although Silver fell today again,
I still think this is a corrective decline.
The price has traced out a three wave decline into this evening lows
off the recent highs at 17.95.
I think wave ‘ii’ is creating a larger correction at the moment.
This correction should complete above 16.89,
And it should lead to a bigger rally in wave ‘iii’ of (i).
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘ii’ to find support at 17.25 again.
A break of 17.95 will confirm wave ‘iii’ has begun.
But 16.89 must now hold at the previous wave [iv].
U.S 10YR.
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Bonds are down again today after a brief recovery in wave ‘iv’ yesterday.
Todays decline is looking like wave ‘v’ of (i) now underway.
I would like to see a break of support at 128.52 in wave (i),
before wave (ii) corrects higher again.
But this is not completely necessary.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘v’ of (i) should trace out a five wave decline itself,
so watch for a continued decline tomorrow towards support to complete wave ‘v’ of (i).