I am updating early this evening which is not ideal I know,
but sometimes you gotta do what you gotta do.
The London trade is now winding down now,
so at least I have that covered!
Onward to victory!
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
The trade in EURUSD was mostly higher today
after a drop into the trend channel yesterday in wave ‘ii’ pink.
The price has not yet broken above 1.1000 at the wave ‘i’ high,
so I can’t confirm that wave ‘iii’ is underway.
But this is a good start at least.
Wave ‘ii’ reached a final low last night at 1.0940,
so this level must hold as wave ‘iii’ develops.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (c) to continue higher towards 1.1100 in five waves.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
It is hard to know what to make of the action in cable today!
There is a bit of knee jerking going on at the moment.
We have a whole lot of political grand standing right now in the EU and the UK as these UK exit talks continue.
Each side is trying to look strong and united,
while really behind the scenes they are all bricking it!
The politicians will do the political thing in the end
and make some sort of crappy deal I have no doubt,
but that will not stop the general downtrend in cable as wave [iii] continue lower.
Tomorrow;
The spike higher in this morning may have begun wave ‘c’ of (ii),
but price must hold above 1.2195 at wave ‘b’ tomorrow.
A break above 1.2332 will signal wave ‘c’ is underway.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY is higher again in a possible wave (iii) of [i].
I think a break of 107.46 will confirm wave (iii).
But the rally must continue for the next few days.
Wave (iii) should pull us back towards resistance at 108.50 again,
if that happens,
then the bullish count will be well on course.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to continue higher.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The DOW may have a five wave pattern completed to the downside this week in wave ‘i’ of (v).
Todays rebound can be viewed as wave ‘ii’ of (v).
IF this is correct,
then wave ‘iii’ of (v) should come in strong tomorrow
and bring the price back below 25740 again.
The bearish count is still very much the favorite at the moment,
but I want this five wave pattern in wave [i] to complete this week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (v) to fall back below 26120 at the wave ‘i’ low.
Wave ‘iii’ should get much close to support to complete.
Price should continue to hold below the declining trend channel line.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is holding up well so far today.
But the price has not broken the 1520 level yet to signal wave (iii) has begun.
If I am correct in the short term count,
then wave ‘iii’ of (iii) if [v] should rally from here
and break out of the 1554 high at the [iii].
A break of that 1520 level again will increase the odds of that rally significantly.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold at 1486,
wave ‘iii’ of (iii) should should break 1520 tomorrow.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude is higher again today off the wave (b) low at 51.82.
The high of wave (a) has not broken so far,
so wave (a) is not confirmed yet.
The rally today may well be wave ‘i’ of (c),
so we could see another slight decline in wave ‘ii’ before wave ‘iii’ up begins.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 51.82 to hold at wave (b) and wave ‘iii’ should begin by tomorrow evening.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
I have shown a ‘i’ ‘ii’ decline in place off the wave (iv) high in the S&P also today.
The price has created another lower high in wave ”i’
and this should lead to a sharp decline in wave ‘iii’ of (v) soon.
A break of 2885 will signal that wave ‘iii’ of (v) has begun,
And wave (v) should complete below 2851 at a minimum.
Although I would prefer to see a break of 2800 in wave (v)
This would rule out the alternate count on the 4hr chart
and bring us much closer to the inevitable bearmarket.
So we are a pretty important point in the wave structure now.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (v) to fall again and break 2885 to begin.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is higher also today to begin wave ‘iii’ of (i).
Price broke above the 17.80 high,
and wave ‘iii’ must now continue higher towards resistance at 18.70.
Wave ‘iii’ should create a clear five wave rally,
so this evenings high may be a small internal wave 1 of ‘iii’.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to carry on up to resistance at wave (b).
A break of that level will be a clear longer term bullish signal
as we setup for a larger rally in wave [v].
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Still no confirmation of wave ‘i’ down after another disappointing trade.
The price is only slightly off the higher created on Friday.
And there is no real impulse lower just yet.
The 4hr chart does show an double top in momentum in place lately.
With both MACD and RSI now lower and close to the centreline.
Momentum is also showing a longer term divergence off the August extremes.
This all points to a large degree top in place.
We will see how it develops in the short term.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to turn down finally with a break of 130.78 at the wave ‘a’ high.
131.97 should hold.