Hi there everyone,
I hope you made it through the weekend in one piece.
Lets dive into a new week of action shall we.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD semms to be stuck in a range trade over the last two sessions.
The price has hit the 1.1000 level twice and fallen off that high immediately.
So all indications are,
that wave ‘ii’ is still in control at the moment.
The price is falling again this evening in what is likely that final move in wave ‘ii’.
This decline should bottom out around 1.0954 to complete wave ‘ii’,
and then head higher again into wave ‘iii’ tomorrow.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete a three wave correction in the area of 1.0950.
A break of 1.1000 again will signal that wave ‘iii’ has begun.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
The action in cable has lost momentum today.
Without the continued decline into wave (iii) as suggested,
it is now likely that wave (ii) is still in force as a complex correction to the upside.
Todays action is now viewed as wave ‘b’ of (ii) which should find a low above 1.2200 early tomorrow.
Once wave ‘b’ is done,
I expect a rally in wave ‘c’ to break 1.2411 again and close out the larger pattern in wave (ii).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to create a higher low above 1.2202,
then a renewed rise in wave ‘c’ of (ii) to complete the impulse pattern off the high.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY held the bullish pattern overnight and began a rally today
which favors the short term wave count.
The price is now rallying this evening in a possible wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
And this should begin a larger move higher in wave [i] over the coming week.
Wave [i] should also break the recent highs at 108.50 this week.
Tomorrow;
If wave (iii) is now underway,
Watch for price to hold above the 107.00 level in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
Price should continue higher to midweek,
when wave (iv) will take over.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
Despite a slight new high today,
I think it is worth holding onto the bearish short term count for now in wave [i] green.
The price has held below resistance at 26700 today,
and the market is selling off this evening again.
This new decline may be the beginning of wave (v) of [i].
If so,
wave (v) will move sharply lower for the next few days to break 25700 again.
On top of that,
if the market does break 25700 again in a five wave pattern.
That will lower the probability of the alternate count.
And the alternate count for wave ‘4’ blue
will be ruled out if we see a drop below 25000 again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) to continue lower tomorrow.
A break of 26000 will signal that wave (v) has begun.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold is creating a larger three wave decline in wave (ii) this evening.
The first declin off the high was labelled wave ‘a’,
wave ‘b’ completed on Friday with a rebound in price.
And now wave ‘c’ of (ii) is nearing completion again after todays selling.
Price is still holding above initial support at 1483,
and todays low also hit the 50% retracement level of the previous decline.
So this level should put a halt to the decline in wave (ii).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (iii) to begin with a rally back above 1520 again.
A break of that level will confirm wave (iii) has begun.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude did rise early today in wave ‘c’ of (a) without hitting a the 55.00 level suggested.
The top for wave (a) came at 54.00 flat.
And the price is now heading lower again in wave (b) of [ii].
The sharp drop this evening is viewed as wave ‘a’ of (b),
where wave ‘b’ will trace out a three wave decline,
and create a higher low above 51.00 at support.
Wave (c) of [ii] should break that 55.00 handle by the end of the week,
before crude turns lower for the longer term in wave [iii].
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (b) to complete a higher low after a three wave decline as shown.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
It is a similar story for the S&P this evening also.
The market rallied to a slight new high this evening and is now turning lower again.
Although there are a few different ways to view the short term action,
I am viewing this evenings small decline,
as the beginning of wave ‘i’ of (v) of [i].
And wave [i] should complete this week with a break of 2800 again.
If the price accelerates lower this week and breaks 2720 in the next leg down,
that will rule out the alternate count on the 4hr chart.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ of (v) to continue lower and break 2900 at a minimum.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver is holding above Fridays low at 17.28 today.
This does support the idea that wave ‘ii’ is now complete
and wave ‘iii’ of (i) is getting underway.
If the price pushes back above 17.80 again tomorrow,
that will confirm wave ‘iii’
and then we can expect a rally for the remainder of the week.
Wave (i) should carry the price back above 1`8.74 again at the wave (b) high.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold at 17.28.
Wave ‘iii’ should rally early in the session.
Price must hold above 16.90 from here.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds are off slightly this evening.
The correction in wave (ii) should be complete now, after that three wave rally last week.
But we need to see a drop back below 129.63 again pretty soon
inorder to confirm that wave ‘i’ of (iii) is underway.
Tomorrow;
Watch for resistance at 132.39 to hold.
Wave ‘i’ of (iii) should get going lower tomorrow.