Good evening all.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD corrected off Thursdays high in a pretty standard three wave move today.
And again,
the price has rebounded off the lows at 1.0956 to create a higher low in wave ‘ii’.
It is always possible that wave ‘ii’ will get more complex on Monday,
but if 1.0956 holds,
And the price rallies again on Monday,
then we can be fairly sure that wave ‘iii’ of (c) has begun.
Monday;
Watch for a break of 1.0999 to confirm wave ‘iii’ of (c).
1.0878 must hold.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable dropped sharply off the high at 1.2418 today.
This decline fits well with the short term wave count.
The decline off the wave (ii) high is in three waves so far,
so we will need to see wave ‘i’ develop further to the downside on Monday,
until we have a clear five wave down complete in wave ‘i’.
If this count is correct,
then wave (iii) should get underway next week and carry the price much lower over the coming months.
A break of 1.1970 again will signal that wave (iii) has begun.
Monday;
If we see a break of 1.2202 that will signal wave ‘i’ of (iii) has begun.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY has risen in three waves off 106.47.
So it is possible that this rise is only a correction higher in wave (iv) of [c].
I have shown this as the alternate count this evening.
If the price moves below 106.47 again on Monday,
that will trigger the alternate count.
As for the main wave count;
I am willing to stick with the bullish setup in wave [i] for now.
the major pattern in wave ‘B’ looks complete,
and this leads me to expect a rally off that low in wave [i].
A rally above the 108.00 level again will confirm the count.
Monday;
watch for a rally to break above 108.00 again to rule out the alternate count.
Next week is looking bullish either way once the change in direction is confirmed for wave ‘C’.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
The market rallied hard today, probably even more than expected.
And for that reason,
I have altered the wave count this evening,
moving it up by one degree which puts todays rally into perspective a bit better.
The rally off Thursdays lows in still in three waves,
so I have labelled this as wave (iv) of [i] to the downside.
Wave (iv) should complete now,
and wave (v) should turn lower again on Monday.
An break below 26000 will signal that wave (v) has begun.
Monday;
Watch for price to hold below 26700 in wave (iv).
Wave (v) should again fall in a five wave pattern.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold has dropped in three waves into todays low at 1495.
that action should complete a simple zigzag correction in wave (ii) at the low,
and wave (iii) up should now begin.
If the price rallies in five waves again from here,
and we see a break of 1536 at the previous wave (b).
That will signal wave (iii) of [v] has begun.
Monday;
watch for wave (ii) to hold at 1495 and a turn higher to begin again in wave e’i’ of (iii).
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Crude oil is up off the low of wave [i] today,
although the rally is not that inspiring just yet.
If wave (a) of [ii] is now underway,
then we could see a three wave rise into 55.00 on Monday.
This action would signal that wave [ii] is tracing out a 3,3,5 flat correction higher.
But as usual with a correction,
it is impossible to know how this is going to play out from here.
We will just take it day by day.
Monday;
Watch for wave (a) of [ii] to continue higher for Monday at least.
55.00 seems like a reasonable target for wave (a).
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
Buy the dip has been the mantra over the last 18 months.
And today,
the bulls were fighting each other to buy more stock.
I have a hunch that this bullish knee jerk reaction
is going to hurt a lot of people this time around.
By the way,
this exact behavior is typical at every major stock market top.
Even though the market dropped like a stone this week,
that drop has not even raised an single eyebrow within the bullish crowd.
All they want to do is buy and hold,
and they will do it all the way down,
until they are broke!
Todays rally was far too large to count as wave ‘iv’ pink.
so I have switched to an alternate count this evening,
which views the whole wave count off the all time high at one degree higher.
The rally is in a clear three wave pattern higher in wave (iv).
So this rally should be fully retraced on Monday by a renewed decline in wave (v).
Wave (iv) must hold below 2976 in wave (iv).
Monday;
Watch for a decline early monday to begin wave ‘i’ of (v).
Wave (v) should complete below 2851.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver has dropped in three waves in wave ‘ii’ of (i) of [v] today.
If the short term count is correct,
then wave [v] is now underway,
and we can expect a prolonged rally over the next month or so,
to reach the target area at about 21.00.
This next move will trace out five waves up,
and wave (i) of [v] should rally again next week.
Monday;
watch for wave ‘iii’ of (i) to push higher again towards resistance at 18.74.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds have halted the rally today below resistance at 132.39.
If wave (ii) is now complete,
then wave (iii) down must get underway early on Monday with a push back below 129.63.
A break of that level will be a good signal that wave ‘i’ of (iii) is underway.
Monday;
watch for wave ‘i’ down to begin early Monday.
132.39 must hold.
I hope you all have a great weekend.
Enjoy and be safe!
God bless and God’s speed to you all.
Enda.