Good evening all.
EURUSD.
EURUSD 1hr.
EURUSD 4hr.
EURUSD daily.
EURUSD is higher today,
but the short term pattern in wave ‘iii’ is not developing as a clean five wave move yet.
There is a few possibilities.
Todays high could be the high of wave ‘i’,
with wave ‘ii’ now dropping again.
Or,
wave ‘iii’ is in the process of extending and we will see a rally beginning tomorrow.
At the moment wave (c) is still on course,
but I would like to wave ‘iii’ of (c) come in strong tomorrow.
If that fails,
I will have to look at another count for wave (c).
Tomorrow;
Watch for 1.0940 to hold and wave ‘iii’ up to continue.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD 1hr.
GBPUSD 4hr.
GBPUSD daily.
Cable may have completed wave (ii) at todays high.
the target high was hit at 1.2411,
and the price has dropped again off that high.
The price has rallied in three waves overall in wave (ii).
With wave ‘c’ of (ii) creating a spike out of a triangle wave ‘b’.
So,
at the moment we have a bearish impulse wave now complete off the recent high at 1.2581.
It is time to consider a drop into wave (iii) of [iii].
Tomorrow;
Watch for adrop below 1.2273 to signal that wave ‘i’ has begun.
Wave (iii) will be confirmed with a break fo 1.2202.
USDJPY.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY 1hr.
USDJPY daily.
USDJPY has now completed a five wave decline in wave [c] of ‘B’.
The price broke to a new low this afternoon in wave (v) of [c].
the low of the session reached 106.47,and the price has bounced again off that low this evening.
If wave ‘B’ is now complete,
we should start looking for a small impulse wave higher to signal wave ‘C’ is getting underway.
Wave ‘C’ should rally up above 110.00 again to complete the larger wave (D) as shown on the 4hr chart.
Tomorrow;
watch for a five wave rally to form off the wave ‘B’ low in wave (i) blue.
DOW JONES.
DOW 1hr.
DOW 4hr
DOW daily.
I have changed the short term count slightly this evening,
it now shows a series of 1,2 waves off the high to account for the sideways action last week.
So the decline this week is viewed as wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
And I think that explains the sharp nature of the drop quite well.
The DOW reached a low this morning at 25743.
The market has rallied off that low quite powerfully.
I am viewing today rally as the first leg up in wave ‘iv’,
or,
the first leg up in the larger degree wave (iv) as shown by the alternate count.
Either way,
the market should now create a three wave wave correction higher over the next few sessions.
And this correction should hold below 27000 at the wave ‘i’ low.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave a decline tomorrow to a higher low above 25743.
this should be a small ‘b’ wave within wave ‘iv’.
GOLD
GOLD 1hr.
GOLD 4hr.
GOLD daily.
Gold has created a five wave rally off the wave [iv] lowat todays high.
I was expecting wave (i) to reach higher than wave (b) at 1536,
It is not absolutely nessesary,
but it would be a nice bullish signal to take out the wave (b) high.
So lets see if we get an extension higher in wave (i) tomorrow.
Tomorrow;
For the moment we can work with the idea that wave (i) is now done.
Wave (ii) will correct to a bullish higher low wit support at 1487.
If all goes to plan,
we should see wave (iii) of [v] begin next week with a rally up to new highs.
CRUDE OIL.
CRUDE OIL 1hr.
CRUDE OIL 4hr.
CRUDE OIL daily.
Close but no cigar!
After another spike lower this morning,
crude failed to break the lower support at 50.52 today.
The price reached a low at 50.99 this afternoon.
Again,
a break of support was not necessary to remain bearish,
but it would be nice prize to take out the low of wave ‘1’!
the price has recovered slightly this evening,
so I think we can assume that wave [ii] is now underway.
So a correction higher is to be expected for most of next weeks trade I think.
Tomorrow;
Wave (a) should trace out a three wave rally at least over the next few sessions,
I am looking at the previous fourth wave at 56.60 as the target overall in wave [ii],
Wave (a) of [ii] should make it up above 55.00.
S&P 500.
S&P 500 1hr
S&P 500 4hr
S&P 500 daily.
The S&P has rallied also today to begin a correction in wave ‘iv’.
The price is back above 2900 again at the highs this evening.
If wave ‘iv’ is now underway,
we can expect a choppy trade over the next few sessions as the waves play out.
I want wave ‘iv’ to hold below the low of wave ‘i’ at 2951.
And ideally wave ‘v’ of (iii) will then fall back below 2850 early next week.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to continue sideways tomorrow,
we should see a slight higher low above 2856 at the low.
SILVER.
SILVER 1hr
SILVER 4hr.
SILVER daily.
Silver has rallied in five waves also into the high of the session today.
Wave ‘ii’ may now be underway this evening with a slight drop off the high.
Initial support for wave ‘ii’ lies at 17.39,
this is the low of the previous wave (a) in blue.
And from here on,
price must hold above 16.90 at the low of wave [iv].
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to hold above 16.90.
We might even see the first move up in wave ‘iii’ of (i) by the close of trade tomorrow.
U.S 10YR.
US 10YR 1hr.
US 10YR 4hr.
US 10YR daily.
Bonds spiked higher this morning to create a throwover in wave ‘c’ of (ii).
This rally must now complete the correction in wave (ii),
as we are close to resistance at the recent high now.
A break of the high will rule out this bearish count.
tomorrow;
I want to see bonds fall again tomorrow,
A five wave decline below 129.63 is what to look for now,
to signal that wave (iii) down has begun.