Daily Elliott Wave Analysis – 05-17-19 – Crude looks set to go.

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Hi there all.

I have posted the video already this evening.

Its been a heck of an interesting trade today, so lets get into it.

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EURUSD

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Price continued to slide today as the selling continued in EURUSD.
This is inline with the current wave count,
although,
I have outlined in the video this evening another way of looking at wave ‘ii’ pink.
If the sideways action this week
is tracing out a flat correction in wave ‘b’ of ‘ii’.
Then wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’ will rally into 1.1264 again before then turning down in wave ‘iii’.

For now the wave count is holding up.

Monday;
Watch for 1.1222 to hold and wave ‘iii’ down to continue lower.

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GBPUSD

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Cable continued lower throughout the whole session without an answer.
the price broke support at 1.2772,
and we are ending the day no the lows.
This all looks fairly bad for cable right now!

The extended decline this week fits a third wave scenario.
If wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is now underway,
then the declines should continue early next week,
and trace out a clear five wave pattern in wave ‘iii’ pink.

Monday;
Wave ‘4’ of ‘iii’ should correct slightly late on Monday evening,
And this should be followed by wave ‘5’ of ‘iii’ on Tuesday.
Wave ‘iii’ should complete by the end of next week.

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USDJPY

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USDJPY is moving higher off the recent extreme low,
and this is a welcome development without a doubt.
But the pattern off the low has et to develop into a five wave structure.
So I must remain skeptical for now.

The trend channel off the lows has been filled in three waves so far.
I have labelled this as a series of 1,2 waves.
But I cant rule out the possibility that this is a correction higher.
If we see price continuing higher next week back above 111.00 again,
that will be enough to confirm wave (iii).

Monday;
Watch for wave (ii) to hold at 109.15.
and further upside in wave (iii).

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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

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The DOW gaped lower this morning after selling off in the futures.
the market then pushed higher throughout the day to create a lower high,
And now the market is selling into the close!
Its been a strange session thats for sure!

Thursdays high still counts as a top for wave [ii],
but we have to watch the possibility that wave [ii]
could create a larger three wave flat correction over the coming week
as mentioned in the video tonight.

Monday;
As it stands right now,
Wave [ii] could be complete.
And there is a good chance that wave [iii] will begin on Monday morning.
Watch for wave (i) of three to begin with a sharp spike lower on Monday.
25957 must hold at wave [ii].

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GOLD

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Another disappointing day for the metals!
Gold extended the selling in wave ‘ii’ today,
And we have now retraced 78.% of that wave ‘i’ up.
Only a sharp rally on Monday
to carry us back towards the 1300 level again will revive the bullish pattern.
At this point,
the alternate count for wave ‘v’ remains very much a possibility.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to reverse the losses over the last few days with a rally off these lows.
A break of 1300 again will confirm wave ‘iii’ is underway.
1267 must hold from here.

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U.S CRUDE OIL

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Crude has traced out a five wave rally into todays highs.
This rally should complete wave (c) and wave [ii] green.
The fact that the market is selling off again this evening
does add to the idea that wave (i) of [iii] is now beginning.

However we need an impulsive pattern to develop over the coming days
to call the top for wave [ii].

Monday;
Watch for wave (i) down to continue lower to break 60.77 again.

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US 10 yr Treasuries.

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The 10YR is grinding downwards off the recent top at wave [ii].
The price is creating spikes lower followed by small corrections higher.
But still no impulsive decline off the high to signal the turn into wave [iii] has begun.

Monday;
the high at 124.95 must hold,
Wave (i) down should easily break 123.70 again early next week.

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SILVER

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Silver has reached the 78.6% retracement level again this evening.
Wave ‘v’ of (c) has traced out a five wave pattern off the end of the triangle wave ‘iv’.
And the price is close to the lower trend channel line again.
This pattern coupled with the overwhelming bearish outlook in the market
should create a perfect environment for a long term low to form.

Monday;
Now I am looking higher again in wave ‘i’ off these lows.
Wave ‘i’ should easily break the wave ‘iv’ high at 14.84.

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S&P 500.

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The S&P is down again this evening after a whipsaw trade all day.
The market did create a lower high off Thursdays 2891 top at wave [ii].
This action favors the current bearish short term count.
If we continue lower on Monday in five waves,
that will signal wave (i) of [iii] is underway.
The price should create another lower high in wave (ii),
before selling hard in wave (iii) of [iii].

Monday;
Watch for 2891 to hold and wave (i) to continue lower.

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I hope you all have a safe weekend ahead.
God bless you all.
See you Monday.

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