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Good evening.
A new week begins, so lets get down to it.
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EURUSD
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A very light trading day in EURUSD today.
The price seems to have drifted higher in three waves off the lows on Thursday.
This is either a small fourth wave correction within wave ‘i’ down,
Or,
a correction in wave ‘ii’ at one degree higher.
Both scenarios call for more downside in the short term.
And a break of support at 1.1176 should confirm a new impulse wave lower has begun.
Tomorrow;
The wave (ii) high at 1.1324 should remain untouched.
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to top out and the a decline in wave ‘iii’ down to begin.
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GBPUSD
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The price is dead flat in cable again today.
The market just does not know what to do with itself yet!
But,
so long as the direction is lower,
then I will hold with the idea that wave ‘3’ down has begun,
and all that is happening now is a slow beginning ot the initial impulse ave lower in that large wave ‘3’.
Initial support lies at 1.2959,
this is the level of wave (iv) of [c] as shown.
If this support breaks, that will knock out another leg of the stool.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a break of 1.2959 again in wave ‘iii’ of (iii) of [i].
1.3133 must hold.
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USDJPY
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USDJPY is also lifeless today so we don’t have much extra to go on regarding the short term count.
It is still possible that wave ‘ii’ is complete at 111.75,
although the action suggests another low is needed.
Wave ‘ii’ should find support at the lower trend channel line at 111.60.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to find a low in the area of 111.60.
A break of 112.16 again will signal wave ‘iii’ up will be underway.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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If the short term count is correct,
then there is a very real possibility that this week will see a break to a new all time high in wave (iii) of [iii] of ‘5’.
The current high is 420 points above us right now.
And it seems the speculative bit is well back in the wall streets mouth!
I have re-labelled the short term count slightly.
it now shows Thursdays high as wave ‘i’ of (iii).
the market should find a low in wave ‘ii’ above 26400 by tomorrow evening.
And then wave ‘iii’ of (iii) should push higher for the rest of the week.
A break above 26602 cash will confirm wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is on.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete above 26400 and then rally again in wave ‘iii’.
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GOLD
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GOLD pushed higher this morning and competed a three wave rally.
This is labelled wave ‘4’ of ‘c’ of (c).
The final leg down in wave ‘5’ has begun this evening.
With the target for wave ‘c’ to complete at about 1260.
At that point we will have a clear five wave pattern in wave ‘c’.
A three wave pattern in wave (c) and the larger wave [ii] will also show a three wave combination pattern.
A very significant low is near now.
And wave [iii] up should be sustained and powerful.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘5’ to dip into the 1260 handle again to complete the larger correction.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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The world seems convinced now that crude oil is destined to blast through $100 again by the end of the year.
And from there the sky is the limit!
Not so fast,
This rally is seriously extended now and could break any minute.
The next big move will bring crude closer to $10 than $100!
Todays trade has pushed the top for wave [v] out for another few days.
The recent corrective lows take the wave ‘iv’ label,
and now wave ‘v’ is extending to create five waves itself.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘4’ of ‘v’ to begin and hold above 64.61.
Wave ‘v’ of (c) could push as far as 67.40.
This is where wave (c) will reach 162% of wave (a).
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US 10 yr Treasuries.
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I am still in two minds about the correction in wave ‘ii’.
It is possible that Thursdays high completed that correction,
but I am open to a larger three wave form to develop.
If we see a five wave move lower from this point,
and a break of 122.63.
that will confirm wave ‘ii’ is done.
And then the price is set to accelerate lower in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
Tomorrow;
Watch for a signal that wave ‘iii’ has begun with a break of 122.63.
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SILVER
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Wave ‘4’ of ‘c’ is still in charge of the action today.
The price created a further slight lower high this morning in a continued range contraction.
This will complete a triangle wave ‘4’.
And wave ‘5’ down should now get going off that high at 15.07.
The midpoint of the target range for wave ‘c’ to complete lies at 14.69.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘5’ down to break 14.84 at a minimum.
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S&P 500.
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The S&P is up off the lows this evening in what could be the beginning of wave (iii) of [v].
And if wave (iii) of [v] is now underway,
that wave should do most of the work to bring us to towards that upper target at 2996 in wave [v] of ‘5’.
Wave (ii) must hold above 2887 for this to remain valid.
A break of 2918 again will signal that wave (iii) has begun.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 2887 to hold,
wave (iii) should begin to accelerate higher.
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