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Good evening to one and all.
I hope the day was good to you.
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EURUSD
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EURUSD did create one last spike higher this morning in wave ‘c’,
this should finish off wave (ii) again as a three wave counter trend rally.
The high today broke above the 50% retracement level and so far has dropped again.
The next major move should now be an acceleration lower into wave (iii) of [iii].
And this should begin with an impulse wave ‘i’ and ‘ii’ down over the coming days.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a drop off these highs in wave ‘i’ to signal that wave (iii) down is underway.
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GBPUSD
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I have shown a different interpretation for the operating wave count this evening.
The long slow contraction has continued today,
this action can be interpreted as wave (iv) of [c].
Wave [c] is still viewed as a wedge pattern.
This is probably best viewed on the 4hr chart.
If the price breaks above the interim high labelled wave ‘d’ pink.
that will signal wave (v) has begun.
With a likely target at about 1.3380 for wave (v) and wave [c] to complete.
Tomorrow;
Watch for this triangle wave (iv) to complete above 1.2986 and wave (v) to begin with a break of 1.3133
A break of that wave ‘c’ low at 1.2986 will rule out the triangle.
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USDJPY
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I am still looking for a top in wave ‘i’ to form,
but after todays rise back into resistance
it seems wave ‘i’ may have another rally left in it.
The price did break momentarily above 112.13 overnight,
and now the price is pushing back up again to that resistance line.
If we see a break of this level overnight,
then price will likely rally into the trend channel to complete wave ‘i’.
A break of 111.80 again will signal that wave ‘ii’ has finally begun.
Tomorrow;
even if we do see a higher high in wave ‘i’
I think we should get a decline in wave ‘ii’ before the end of the week,
111.80 will be the trigger for wave ‘ii’.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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The DOW has created a larger three wave decline off the high at wave ‘i’.
This should now complete the wave ‘ii’ correction.
And wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to the upside is clear for takeoff this week.
The price has held above 26316 at wave (ii) so far,
and this level should continue to hold as wave (iii) develops.
If wave ‘iii’ of (iii) is about to begin,
then we must see a rally over the next couple of sessions to confirm that count.
And if we do in-fact set off on a new speculative rally,
then the larger wave [iii] of ‘5’ is set to take us to new all time highs by the end of the month.
As far as I’m concerned,
The sooner this happens the better!
I for one want to leave this period of elevated idiocy behind us and get back to a world of sensible valuation again.
I will have to wait for that though!
Tomorrow;
Watch for Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to begin with a break of 26530 cash.
26316 must hold at wave ‘ii’.
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GOLD
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I can see a new five wave decline in wave ‘c’ coming along nicely now.
I have labelled the internal pattern as waves 1 – 3 now completing,
with waves 4, and 5 left to complete a double combination wave [ii] as shown.
The current decline should finish this week,
And then I will be looking for a bullish impulse wave to the upside again to begin wave (i) of [iii].
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘4’ of ‘c’ to correct slightly higher back up to about 1280 again.
And then wave ‘5’ of ‘c’ should decline into above 1260 to complete.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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Crude hit a high today at 64.61 cash.
This is not a new high as the wave ‘iii’ high reached 64.79.
But there is every chance that this is a truncated fifth wave to finish off wave (c).
If the price drops in five waves as shown off these highs,
that will signal the top is in for wave ‘C’ of (2).
And we can work again on building a larger bearish impulse wave to the downside.
This will act as a signal the market is finally turning into wave (3) down.
I have mentioned the idea that crude could lead the general market back into decline again as it did last year.
Going on this pattern,
that is a real possibility now.
Tomorrow;
Watch for the top to hold
and wave (i) down to begin falling towards the 61.00 handle again.
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US 10 yr Treasuries.
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The price of the 10YR seems to have found a temporary low in wave ‘i’ of (iii) at 122.63 this morning.
The price rose off that low to begin a three wave correction in wave ‘ii’ pink.
With initial resistance at the wave (i) low now forming the target for wave ‘ii’ of (iii).
this market is getting close to a decline in a third of a third wave.
So I would not be surprised to see an acceleration lower beginning next week in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
the target for wave (iii) lies at about 121.00 again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ of (iii) to carry higher in a three wave form to about 123.25.
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SILVER
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Silver has failed to follow through off the lows.
The price is falling again this evening,
most likely as part of wave ‘5’ of ‘c’ again.
One last low lies ahead in wave ‘c’ if this is correct.
And then I can look higher again for a bullish signal to begin that long awaited wave (iii) up.
Both 4hr and daily momentum are diverging higher again from recent extreme lows.
So selling pressure is all but gone now.
The price should follow higher soon in wave (iii).
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S&P 500.
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The S&P is falling again in wave (c) of [iv] today.
Wave [iv] should find support at 2872 at the previous fourth wave.
If we see a low in wave [iv] form before the end of the week,
then wave [v] of ‘5’ should begin next week,
and break to a new all time high above 2941.
Although this will be a Pyrrhic victory for the bulls!
The market is grinding through this final leg up now as shown by the labeling.
There is not much upside left for stocks.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave [iv] to continue lower towards support at 2872.
A higher low of that level will signal wave [v] up has begun.
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