Daily Elliott Wave Analysis – 04-15-19 – I’M Back!

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width=”5″][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

I’m back!
Boy oh boy it’s good to be home.
It took a whole lot of emails, phone calls and listening to ‘on-hold music’
while being gently remineded that ‘your business is important to us’.
But finally were back in action today.

Without boring you any longer on the minutia.
So down to it.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_eurusd)]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width=”5″][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

EURUSD

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width=”5″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”2/3″][vc_custom_heading text=”1 hr” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][vc_custom_heading text=”4 Hours” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text=”Daily” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

EURUSD is still correcting higher in wave ‘c’ of (ii) after todays non event session.
The action looks like a minor correction within a fourth wave of ‘c’.
Possibly a triangle,
one last pop to the 61.8% retracement level at 1.1344 will complete five waves in wave ‘c’.
And then we will have a clear three wave pattern in wave (ii)
ready for a sharp decline in wave (iii).

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to complete with a rise into 1.1344,
a drop from that point in five waves will indicate that wave (iii) down is beginning.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[/_s2If]
[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_gbpusd)]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width=”5″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

GBPUSD

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width=”5″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column width=”2/3″][vc_custom_heading text=”1 hr” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][vc_column width=”1/3″][vc_custom_heading text=”4 Hours” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][vc_custom_heading text=”Daily” use_theme_fonts=”yes”][vc_column_text][/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Cable is still hanging in limbo today.
The market has not decided if it wants to begin wave ‘3’ down now,
or if one last high in wave ‘2’ is needed.

This stagnant trade will not last forever though.
So this weeks action will decide the path.
Either way,
I think the longer term trend is down for cable.
We are simply simply deciding when the turn will be!

Tomorrow;
If the price falls below 1.2986
I will switch to the alternate count and call wave ‘2’ complete.
A break of 1.3195,
will suggest that wave ‘c’ will carry us up to resistance and then complete the larger wave ‘2’.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[/_s2If]
[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_usdjpy)]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width=”5″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

USDJPY

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

USDJPY is now just pips below the wave [i] resistance at 112.13.
A break above this level will signal that wave (iii) of [iii] has begun.
This wave should carry the price significantly higher once the minor correction in wave ‘ii’ completes.

A correction in wave ‘ii’ of (iii) is the focus for this week.
A three wave decline in wave ‘ii’
should hold the general uptrend by completing within the trend channel.
A drop into 111.40 will achieve that.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to complete with a break of resistance overnight,
Wave ‘ii’ of (iii) should then take over for the next few sessions.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[/_s2If]
[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_dow_jones)]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width=”5″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

The DOW has dropped today to complete a possible running flat wave (ii) of [iii].
the market is back off the lows again as we close.
If wave (ii) is now done,
this rise will then continue higher above 26504 by Wednesday evening and confirm wave (iii) of [iii] of ‘5’ has begun.
Wave (iii) of [iii] is usually the strongest wave within any move.
So I am open to an acceleration to new all time highs soon,
maybe even later this week as the larger wave [iii] closes out.

I keep mentioning how this new high will not be bullish,
but that is exactly how the financial media
and the political sphere, will interpret it.
It will be interesting to see the headlines and the tweets if and when it happens!

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iii) of [iii] to be confirmed with a break of 26504.
The price should hold above 26060 for the next few weeks as wave ‘5’ comes to a close.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[/_s2If]
[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_gold)]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width=”5″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

GOLD

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

GOLD came very close to breaking the invalidation line at 1281 today.
The price has rallied off that low,
which saves the short term bullish count for the moment.
Only a break of 1310 will confirm that wave ‘iii’ has begun.
But that low at 1281 simply must hold to rule out the alternate wave (c) scenario.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave 1281 to hold again and wave ‘iii’ of (i) of [iii] carry higher towards 1310 again.
If 1281 breaks we will have to wait for another week or so for the next impulse wave up to begin wave [iii].

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[/_s2If]
[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_crude)]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width=”5″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

U.S CRUDE OIL

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

I’m turning bearish again!
The drop off the high could be the beginning of that long awaited wave (i) down as shown.
Although a new high was not made at wave ‘v’,
this could simply be a failed fifth wave at the end of the trend.
I will have to wait for confirmation with a full five wave decline off the high to confirm that idea.

We are most definitely in the area of a turn lower into wave (3).
The longer term momentum indicators are diverging lower again after registering extremes recently.
And market optimism is again back at the extremes last seen in the summer of 2018.
I short,
Wave (3) is due.

Tomorrow;
this week will again be focused on a five wave decline to confirm that we have a top in place.
If that happens
then we can get prepared for that big move lower on the cards.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[/_s2If]
[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_us10yr)]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width=”5″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

US 10 yr Treasuries.

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

The 10YR pushed back up off Fridays lows today.
This is part of a three wave correction higher in wave ‘ii’ of (iii).

The price is likely to fill that vertical drop lower
created in wave ‘i’ as wave ‘ii’ now develops.
A target of 123.45 is reasonable in a three wave retracement higher.

Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to continue higher over the coming days.
If the top is in for the 10YR,
then the price must not break 123.90 again at wave (ii).

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[/_s2If]
[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_silver)]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width=”5″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

SILVER

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

Silver hit a lower low today in wave ‘5’ of ‘c’.
Wave ‘5’ itself has traced out a five wave pattern.
Wave ‘c’ has a clear five wave pattern,
and wave (ii) has a clear three wave pattern completed.
So;
we are again in a green light zone for a turn up to begin wave (iii) blue.

Tomorrow;
Again I will be looking for a five wave move back into the larger trend in wave ‘i’ of (iii) over the coming days.
Watch for todays low to hold and the spike higher to carry back above 15.33 to begin wave ‘i’.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[/_s2If]
[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_sp500)]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width=”5″][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

S&P 500.

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

The S&P is ahead of the DOW is its short term structure.
Today’s small drop completes a correction in wave ‘iv’ of (v) of [iii].
So the larger top in wave [v] of ‘5’ is one step closer in the broader market.

Wave (v) should hit the 2920 area to complete.
This is where wave (i) and (v) of [iii] will reach equality.
And this is just above the 2916 level where waves [i] and [iii] reach equality.
So there are hints of at least a short term correction on the cards
in wave [iv] beginning this week.

Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘v’ of (v) of [iii] to push up above 2916.

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[/_s2If]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]

[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row]

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_separator border_width=”5″][/vc_column][/vc_row]