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Hi everyone.
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EURUSD
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I have updated the short term chart this evening to show the high at 1.1448 as wave [ii] green,
This change is best viewed on the 4hr chart.
The new count simply moves up the labeling by one degree.
And the outlook is still negative after a short correction now in wave (ii).
The market moved higher in wave ‘a’ of (ii) today.
Waves ‘b’ and ‘c’ should continue higher for the next day or so and complete in the area of 1.1330.
Wave (iii) of [iii] down is then likely to accelerate lower.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘b’ to create a higher low above 1.1180.
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GBPUSD
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Cable rose again today to complete three waves up in wave ‘a’ of (v).
The action this evening is correcting off the highs of the session.
This is likely the beginning of wave ‘b’.
And wave ‘b’ should drift sideways to lower tomorrow in three waves.
Wave ‘b’ should complete above 1.2975.
The alternate count circled in red, shows the decline off the high as a leading leading diagonal wave (i).
with the correction higher as wave (ii).
If we see an impulsive move lower again which breaks below 1.2772,
that will trigger the alternate count.
Wave ‘3’ down will likely be underway at that point.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a small drop in wave ‘b’ to complete above 1.2975.
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USDJPY
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USDJPY may now be correcting in wave ‘iv’ of (i).
The market has again come to a halt after a small rise overnight.
The top is labelled wave ‘iii’,
and a correction in wave ‘iv’ is now underway.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘iv’ must hold above 110.70.
And wave ‘v’ should again push higher to resistance at 112.36 over the coming days.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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Stocks have been flat as a pancake today.
The market is still correcting in wave (iv) of [i].
Wave (iv) should complete as a flat correction at the recent low of 26100.
And then rally again in wave (v) of [i].
As mentioned yesterday,
If we see a larger drop from this point into about 25800 again,
that will change the correction to a drop in the larger degree wave [ii].
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (iv) to complete
and one more pop to about 26400 to complete wave wave [i].
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_gold)]
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GOLD
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GOLD is bouncing along near the lows of wave ‘iii’ for the last four sessions.
I think this is still a fourth wave correction,
but a triangle fits a little better given the contracting nature of the price action.
This should give way to one more drop in wave ‘v’ of (c) by the end of the week.
And then we can look higher into wave [iii] up for the coming months.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘iv’ to complete as a possible triangle.
Price should hold below 1300 in this wave form.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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Crude is falling off the highs today back below the trend channel line again.
This should prove to be a corrective decline in the short term,
and wave ‘iv’ should hold above 60.72 at wave ‘i’.
Price should then turn higher in wave ‘v’ of (c) of [v].
The target for wave [v] lies at 63.50, the 62% FIB retracement of wave (1) down.
this would be the ideal scenario,
But an impulsive decline before that level would signal an earlier turn into wave (3).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘iv’ to complete in three waves and above the wave ‘i’ high at 60.72.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_us10yr)]
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US 10 yr Treasuries.
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I am beginning to seriously consider the alternate count this evening.
The drop off the high labelled wave (iii)
can be viewed as a developing five wave form.
This is considered wave (i) down circled in red.
If the market rebounds higher over the coming days in a three wave form in wave (ii),
that will be further evidence that the market is turning into a downtrend.
So at the moment the current count is hanging on by a thread,
a break of 122.95 will trigger the alternate count and signal the turn is in for treasuries.
And we can expect a three wave rally in wave (ii).
Rather than a five wave rally in wave (v) as now shown.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 122.95 to hold and wave (v) up to begin.
Otherwise we are in for a big drop in the 10YR earlier than expected.
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SILVER
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Wave ‘4’ seems to be developing into a contracting triangle this evening.
And that triangle may even be complete this evenings lower high.
Price must not break 15.19 in order for the triangle to remain valid.
And once wave ‘4’ does complete,
Wave ‘5’ down is left to finish this three wave correction in wave (ii) blue as shown.
Then I will begin to look higher in wave (iii).
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘4’ to complete below 15.19,
and the final decline in wave ‘5’ to begin.
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S&P 500.
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The S&P is now dropping off the session high as we approach the close this evening.
This decline is viewed as the beginning of wave (iv) if [iii].
Wave (iv) will likely find support at 2858,
the previous fourth wave.
But wave (iv) must not fall below 2829,
this is the high of wave (i).
If that occurs I will need to rethink the pattern again!
Tomorrow;
Watch for Wave (iv) of [iii] to complete tomorrow in three waves at about 2850.
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