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Good evening all.
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EURUSD
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The market went vertical this evening breaking resistance at 1.1419.
This invalidated the wave ‘ii’ high,
and triggered the first alternate count.
The wave count now shows a double combination wave (ii) at todays highs.
Price must remain below 1.1514 for this interpretation to hold.
And we should see that long awaited impulse wave lower to begin wave (iii) over the coming days.
Tomorrow;
Price action has invalidated one possible correction,
but this action is still corrective to the upside in wave (ii).
Watch for wave (iii) down to begin tomorrow with a push back below 1.1300 again in wave ‘i’ of (iii).
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GBPUSD
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Todays move higher traced out a three wave move.
The price is now falling again off the high.
Todays action may be the initial impulse wave lower to begin wave ‘iii’ pink.
If we see a continuation lower tomorrow below 1.3000 again,
that should confirm wave ‘iii’ down.
A break of 1.2960 will confirm wave (i) down.
Tomorrow;
watch for 1.3309 to hold and wave ‘iii’ of (i) to continue lower.
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USDJPY
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USDJPY rose in the overnight session to complete wave ‘b’ up.
The price drifted lower during the European session off wave ‘b’.
and then plunged this evening in wave ‘c’ of (c).
The price is now at the lower trendline target of 110.56 this evening.
This is also the area of the previous fourth wave and the 38% retracement level.
So the odds are that we will see an end to this wave [ii] soon.
The 50% retracement level comes in at 109.95.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (c) to come to a close nearby.
It will be time to look higher in wave (i) of [iii] soon.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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The DOW experienced a real pump and dump this afternoon!
The price rallied 250 points off the lows,
and as now given up most of that gain in a sharp move lower this evening.
I am looking for a five wave move to the downside
in wave ‘i’ of (iii) over the coming days.
So these declines must continue.
A break of initial support at 25208 will be a signal that wave (iii) has begun.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘i’ to continue lower.
25460 marks the internal wave ‘b’ of (ii), a break of that low will confirm wave ‘i’ down.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_gold)]
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GOLD
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GOLD turned sharply higher after a three wave decline today.
This action could signal that wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ is underway.
The rise off the low labelled wave ‘ii’ is still in three waves,
So,
we must see a further rally to create a five wave structure
and a break of 1328 to confirm this bullish interpretation.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘2’ must hold at 1298.50 and wave ‘3’ to push above 1328.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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Well,
crude did break that psychological $60 level today after all!
the drop off the previous highs came in three waves,
so this proved only corrective and is now labelled wave ‘iv’ of (c).
The price is back at the upper trendline again this evening.
This is labelled wave ‘v’ of (c)
and should complete the ending diagonal wave ‘C’ and the larger wave (2).
Tomorrow;
I am looking for a larger impulsive decline off the eventual wave (2) high,
in order to call a top in crude for the long term.
that should lead to a nice setup for wave (3) down.
So it is a matter of patience for this moment to allow that bearish action to unfold.
Lets see if tomorrow brings a decline off the trend channel.
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US 10 yr Treasuries.
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It looks like wave [c] may have arrived earlier than expected after todays action.
The spike in prices today has forced a rethink of the recent correction in wave [b] green.
It is possible that wave [b] is complete at the lows of 121.47,
as a irregular flat.
This is where wave (c) does not make a new low below wave (a) to complete a three wave structure.
The action off that low can also be viewed as a rally in wave (i) and (ii) of [c].
Where wave [c] will unfold in five waves.
And todays spike higher is labelled wave ‘i’ of (iii) of [c].
Tomorrow;
If this new count is correct,
then prices must hold above 122.60 as wave (iii) develops.
Watch for a possible higher low in wave ‘ii’ tomorrow.
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SILVER
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Silver caught that spike in the market today also.
The rise still best fits a three wave structure,
And the price is selling off the highs of the day again now
after touching the upper trendline.
A drop into 15.12 again will complete three waves in wave ‘2’.
And from there wave ‘3’ should rally up towards the recent highs at 16.20 again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for a three wave correction to complete above 14.97 in wave ‘2’.
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S&P 500.
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The S&P created a similar spike and selloff today.
Interestingly,
this has left us with a minor degree lower high so far.
I have labelled todays high wave ‘ii’ as a possible expanded flat.
If this is correct,
then wave ‘iii’ down will take over tomorrow and accelerate back towards 2770 in an impulsive fashion.
The price has held above the 2800 level so far,
although I don’t think this will last for long.
The technical setup on both the daily and 4hr charts looks very bearish.
Monentum has diverged significantly lower on the daily chart off a 12 month extreme high.
And the 4hr chart shows a similar bearish divergence with RSI breaking the centreline today.
Tomorrow;
The wide angle view shows a market on the cusp of a big drop.
All we are missing is an impulse wave lower on the short term charts.
Watch for this decline to continue in a possible wave ‘iii’ of (i) to break 2770.
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