Daily Elliott Wave Analysis – 03-08-19 – Metals turn bullish again.

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Hi there all,

welcome to the weekend,

I hope the day went well for you.

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EURUSD

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EURUSD has completed wave ‘i’ of (iii) today
and so far has risen in wave ‘a’ of ‘ii’ to this evenings highs.
The previous wave ‘4’ lies at 1.1325
this should the upper limit of the wave ‘ii’ retracement.
Wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to the downside should follow next week.

Monday;
Waves ‘b’ and ‘c’ are left in wave ‘ii’.
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to to complete a three wave ratracement below 1.1325.

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GBPUSD

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Cable is still dropping in wave ‘3’ of ‘iii’ I think.
And we need more declines on Monday to fill out a five wave decline within wave ‘iii’.
The price structure has not developed ideally off the high,
but one day of impulsive action to the downside will help meet the short fall.
We have a clear no go level at the recent wave ‘2’ high at 1.3185.
If that level breaks we will have to rethink the wave structure.

Monday;
1.3185 must hold and wave ‘iii’ should continue lower in five waves.
Next week is still looking like a down week in the larger wave (i),
a break of 1.2772 will signal that the bearish wave ‘3’ is starting.

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USDJPY

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USDJPY has broken support at 111.21 today and bounced off the lows.
Todays low at 110.78 should hold and wave ‘iii’ turn higher next week.
A break of 112,13 will confirm that wave ‘iii’ has begun.

Monday;
Support at the previous wave (ii) must not break at 110.35.
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to carry higher on Monday.

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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

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The DOW has fallen to a one month low at todays session lows.
I have labelled wave ‘iii’ complete at todays lows
but it could easily continue with a further subdivision.

The price is rising as we come to the close,
It looks like a small three wave correction.
so this could be wave ‘iv’ already underway,
if so wave ‘iv’ should hold below 25600,
and then a further break to a new low in wave ‘v’ will complete wave (i).

Monday;
I am still hunting for that illusive five waves down off the highs.
Next week may well do that for us.
So,
watch for wave ‘iv’ to complete early on Monday and a return lower in wave ‘v’.
A break of initial support would be an added bonus in wave (i).

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GOLD

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GOLD has rallied off the lows today,
without hitting that 1276 level at the previous fourth wave low.
The rise looks impulsive,
and could be the beginning of wave ‘i’ of (v) which has been on the cards.

If wave (iv) is now complete,
wave (v) should carry back above 1346 again at a minimum.
The upper trend channel line on the 4hr chart suggests a target at about 1370.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to complete a five wave rally and break above 1300 again.
Wave ‘ii’ should create a bullish higher low by midweek.

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U.S CRUDE OIL

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This evenings rally came in hard, and has really put a strain on the current count.
The only other possible interpretation on the bearish side,
is that wave (iii) down is extending and his evenings rally is wave ‘ii’ of (iii).
The price must turn lower on Monday if that is the case.

The alternate count still shows a possible wave [iv] underway.
IF the price continues higher on Monday and breaks 57.30 again,
that will trigger the alternate count.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘iii’ of (iii) to turn lower to break 55.00 again.
The alternate count will be triggered if the rally continues above 57.30.

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US 10 yr Treasuries.

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The high of the session hit the upper trend channel line at 122.93 today.
The price has dropped slightly off that level
and wave (c) of [b] should now drop back towards 120.50 next week.

Monday;
Wave (c) will trace out a five wave decline and that should start with a lower high in waves ‘i’ and ‘ii’.

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SILVER

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Silver is ending the week positive after a five wave decline in wave ‘c’ of (ii).
Wave (ii) now looks to be complete,
and todays rally may be the beginning of wave (iii) up.
So Thursdays lows at 14.97 must now hold as wave ‘i’ of (iii) up develops.

Monday;
Watch for wave ‘i’ to recover most of the decline in wave ‘c’.
14.97 must hold and five waves up continue.
Wave ‘1’ and ‘2’ should create another bullish higher low Monday.

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S&P 500.

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The S&P has rallied this evening in a possible wave ‘iv’ pink.
This rally must complete below 2767,
which is the wave ‘i’ low.
As wave ‘iv’ must not break the price territory of wave ‘i’.

I want to see a clear five wave decline off the highs
develop by the middle of next week.
At that point we can get serious about the possibility of a crash type event to kick off wave ‘C’ down.

Next week;
Five waves down is on the cards now,
watch for a further drop in wave ‘v’ of (i) early next week.

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Wishing you all an enjoyable weekend.
God’s speed,
See you Monday.

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