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Hi everyone.
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EURUSD
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Wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’ has developed into an ending diagonal to complete this correction.
The price is reaching the 38% retracement level this evening,
if wave ‘c’ reaches the 50% retracement level that will bring price above 1.1400 again
and that level has acted as the oscillation point for EURUSD since October last.
So this level should offer resistance to wave ‘ii’.
Tomorrow;
1.1514 must hold as wave ‘ii’ completes,
Watch for wave ‘c’ of ‘ii’ to complete in an ending diagonal.
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GBPUSD
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Wave ‘c’ is reaching the 78.6% retracement after another up day for Cable.
Given the power of this retracement this week,
it is pointing heavily to the alternate count shown circled in red.
If we don’t see a turn down begin tomorrow,
then I will switch to that count.
We will then track wave (c) higher to that upper trendline at about 1.3400.
This will not be a long term bullish development,
Wave ‘3’ down will follow this corrective action
and it will be a prolonged decline.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘c’ of (ii) ‘must complete below 1.3218.
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USDJPY
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Wave ‘b’ seems to be complete at todays high of 110.96.
The price is dropping off that high this evening in a possible wave ‘c’ of (ii).
Wave (ii) is targeted to complete at the lower trendline
in the region of 109.80 at the 50% retracement level.
The minimum target is at the wave ‘a’ low of 110.24.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘c’ to complete.
We should get an initial move higher in to begin wave (iii) up by the end of the week.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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After maybe the most rapid appreciation in equity values in living history,
the DOW is now only 4% off the all time highs again.
And of course after this epic binge has run its course
the market is now hunting for another reason to continue the bullish outlook,
more confirmation of a never ending bull market.
The price is hitting resistance this evening and so far failing to break.
Wave ‘2’ is still in play,
but wave ‘b’ will halt this rally either way.
The FED has just released the minutes of its January flip flop!
So I’m sure they are trolling through the vagaries now
to find that little gem to sooth the cognitive dissonance.
Tomorrow;
The next leg down in both wave counts will be a five wave structure.
So both declines will start with wave (i) grey.
We still have two trading days left to get going in wave (i).
26065 is the level to watch to trigger the alternate count.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_gold)]
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GOLD
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GOLD is dropping this evening to begin wave ‘ii’ of (v).
I am looking at a few levels for wave ‘ii’.
The first at 1326,
this is the high of the previous wave (iii) and this should hold the decline.
A drop into 1314 will be where the price will meet the rising trend channel again.
The bullish interpretation will be invalidated with a break of 1302 again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to continue lower with initial support at 1326.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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Crude rallied today in wave (v) of [iii].
The price did not break resistance yet at 58.13,
I would have expected wave [iii] to break that level at a minimum.
but we may not get that.
There is an interesting alternate count that I am watching today.
The rising trendline colored red,
has caught the last four highs including todays.
It is possible that wave ‘C’ is an expanding diagonal.
With five internal moves
and an overlapping choppy form to the action,
It is a definite candidate for wave ‘C’.
If the price drops in five waves off these levels that will signal that wave ‘c’ is complete.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave (v) of [iii] to push up above 58.13.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_us10yr)]
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US 10 yr Treasuries.
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Still no break higher in wave ‘iii’ of (v) today.
The price has corrected again this evening.
this could be a second wave correction within wave ‘iii’.
price should hold above the interim low at 121.89 at wave ‘ii’.
And wave ‘iii’ should continue higher towards 123.22.
Tomorrow;
121.89 must hold.
Watch for wave ‘iii’ to carry higher.
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SILVER
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Silver popped above the resistance line briefly today,
this seems to have completed wave ‘i’ up
and the drop off this evening is labelled as the beginning of wave ‘ii’ of (iii).
The price should now drop in three waves
to a higher low above 15.48 in wave ‘ii’.
The previous wave ‘b’ of (ii) lies at 15.80,
this level should provide support for the correction.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to drop into 15.80 in three waves.
We can then expect a rally to begin in wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
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S&P 500.
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We have stalled today after choppy trade.
The market does not know what to make of the fed minutes yet,
although if they have not bit the bullet by now,
then they most likely wont.
Resistance still stands intact at 2816,
So I have not dumped the current wave count just yet!
Although wave ‘B’ could allow a break of resistance again before completing,
So far that has held,
and we could head lower without breaking that level in both wave counts.
Tomorrow;
Watch for resistance to hold and a five wave decline to begin.
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