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Hi everyone,
Happy St Valentines day!
There is a piece of St Valentine in a church in Dublin, I always found that strange!
Anyway,
In the interest of a happy marriage and a peaceful household,
I am about to cook dinner for my wife,
so I hope you don’t mind if I keep it a bit shorter tonight!.
Onward to business.
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EURUSD
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EURUSD rose after a break of support again early this morning.
The rise is not very convincing as a five wave structure in wave ‘c’ just yet.
I expect wave ‘c’ to hit the wave ‘a’ high at 1.1340,
but if the market turns lower again tomorrow without hitting that target,
then wave ‘iii’ is more likely underway.
Tomorrow;
the wave count still calls for a rally into 1.1340,
but a break of the wave ‘b’ low again at 1.1248 will signal wave ‘iii’ down has begun.
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GBPUSD
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Cable has dropped clearly below support at 1.2852 today
which suggests that wave ‘i’ of three is now underway.
The only caveat to that count
is that the drop off the wave (ii) high is in three waves so far.
So that could be a drop in wave ‘b’ of (ii) also.
If so,
then wave (ii) would trace out an expanded flat.
I have shown that alternate on the short term chart circled in red.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 1.2957 to hold as waves ‘i’ and ‘ii’ complete.
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USDJPY
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USDJPY took a hit this afternoon in a possible wave ‘4’ of ‘iii’.
this drop is much sharper than I would expect in a fourth wave,
but this might develop into a more complex correction tomorrow.
so I will have to watch this closely tomorrow to see if something else is going on.
I still expect the larger wave (iii) to continue higher after this correction completes.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘4’ to hold above 110.15 and turn higher again.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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Todays drop in the DOW has a three wave look to it.
So this is possibly a fourth wave correction within wave ‘v’ of (v).
this would allow for another slight high to complete a five wave rise in wave ‘v’.
The other interpretation of the short term action is that we saw a failed fifth wave this morning,
and the drop off that high is wave ‘i’ of (i).
A further decline tomorrow back towards the wave ‘iv’ support will favor this view.
Tomorrow;
We should know by the end of the session tomorrow which way to go on this.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_gold)]
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GOLD
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Gold has created a new low at 1302 today,
and so far the rise off that low is promising as wave ‘i’ of (v).
I thought we might see a drop below 1300 again in wave ‘c’ of (iv),
But todays low has reached the minimum target.
So I am willing to look higher again into wave ‘i’ now.
Tomorrow;
A break of 1317 will confirm that wave ‘i’ of (v) has begun.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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I am unwilling to give up on the current bearish count just yet.
although we are close to invalidating with this rally in wave ‘c’ of (ii).
Todays drop could be viewed as wave ‘i’ of (iii),
so long as the high of wave ‘c’ holds at 54.68 cash.
Tomorrow;
Watch for another push lower to begin a possible wave (iii) down.
55.75 must hold,
If that level breaks then we will switch to the alternate count.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_us10yr)]
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US 10 yr Treasuries.
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Treasuries are very close to triggering that alternate count this evening.
The rally today carried price back towards the wave ‘ii’ high at 122.45.
This level is critical in the short term,
a break above 122.45 will confirm that the triangle alternate count for wave (iv) is correct.
And wave (v) would then carry back above 123.22 again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 122.45 to hold and a turn lower in wave ‘iii’ to break 121.56.
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SILVER
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Silver dropped to a slight new low today and has rebounded off that low this evening,
This leaves a three wave drop out of that triangle wave ‘b’.
It is likely that wave ‘c’ of (ii) is now dropping in an ending diagonal.
this would allow for another drop into 15.40 to complete this structure.
Tomorrow;
watch for wave ‘c’ to complete in an ending diagonal.
We should see a return higher in wave (iii) next week.
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[_s2If current_user_can(access_s2member_ccap_sp500)]
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S&P 500.
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The S&P is creating island reversal patterns weekly at this point!
The gap to a new high this week,
was today closed by a gap below again.
This sure does point to an exhausted market alright.
but we still need that five wave pattern lower to confirm that wave ‘2’ is down.
Tomorrow;
Lets see if todays downside action can be turned into a useful pattern with a further drop tomorrow.
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