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Hi there everyone.
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EURUSD
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EURUSD has continued to drop off the highs in an unconventional fashion.
I have labelled this drop as wave ‘3’ of ‘i’.
but we are going to have to see a further drop over the coming days to create that five wave structure I am looking for.
The price hit 1.1400 again and has stopped dead so far.
For now,
the alternate count is still a possibility given that the decline is in three wave so far.
Tomorrow;
A fourth wave correction could hold the price flat for a while,
watch for the price stay below 1.1430 at the wave ‘1’ low.
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GBPUSD
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Cable surprised on the downside today with a possible wave ‘iii’ of (i) now underway.
The price has hit the high of the previous wave (a) this evening finding some support,
but this should not last long.
Wave ‘iii’ looks like it will drop below support before correcting in wave ‘iv’.
All going to plan,
then wave ‘v’ should break that 1.2800 support level.
Tomorrow;
Although the alternate count is still with us,
the odds are rising that the top is now in for Cable.
Watch for wave ‘iii’ pink to break below support before correcting in wave ‘iv’.
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USDJPY
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The price has corrected off the highs in three waves today.
Either wave ‘ii’ is complete after that initial drop,
or the small three wave drop is only wave ‘a’ of ‘ii’.
we will have to wait and see on that one.
Tomorrow;
Wave ‘ii’ should find support between 109.40 and the 50% retracement level at 109.30.
If wave ‘iii’ is coming our way,
Then we should get a nice rally up above the 111.00 handle before the end of the week.
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DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
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Todays high is only 650 points from that dreaded invalidation level at 26065.
But no matter how I split it,
I am stuck with the conclusion that this is a correction higher,
And this rally will break in a very big way quite soon.
Wave (v) has rallied about a thousand points in one weeks trading.
This falls into the category of reckless abandon,
and wishful thinking!
And this is reflected in the options market.
At the close of trading yesterday,
The index put/call ratio dropped 45%
put volume had fallen 42% on the day,
and call volume had risen 6.3%.
nothing but blue skies ahead according to that action.
But,
I am fairly confident that we will see a selloff begin before the end of this week.
Tomorrow;
the price has stalled this evening again,
lets see if this translates to a reversal tomorrow.
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GOLD
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Gold has corrected higher in a small three wave move off the wave ‘a’ low today.
It looks like wave ‘b’ is almost complete now,
and wave ‘c’ down should begin tomorrow and hit that initial target area at 1297 over the next few sessions.
If the price hits that level and rebounds higher in an impulse form,
that could be a sign that the alternate count shown is more likely.
Tomorrow;
watch for Wave ‘b’ to complete early tomorrow and wave ‘c’ to drop towards 1297.
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U.S CRUDE OIL
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Crude is lower off the wave (ii) high today in what could be the beginning of wave (iii) down.
It is hard to call right now,
but a break of the wave (i) low at 53.29 cash,
will signal that wave (iii) has begun.
Wave (iii) itself should break support at 51.40 before completing.
Tomorrow;
Watch for 55.21 to hold at the wave (ii) and wave (iii) to continue lower.
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US 10 yr Treasuries.
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Wave ‘i’ down reached a low today of 121.56.
The price then rose to begin a three wave correction higher in wave ‘ii’ pink.
And wave ‘ii’ should complete at about 122.00 tomorrow.
At that point
a clear bearish impulse structure will be in place and we are then ready for a drop into wave ‘iii’ of (iii).
Wave (iii) will be confirmed with a break into the 120.00 handle again.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘ii’ to complete in three waves in a bearish lower high.
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SILVER
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Silver has rallied in a minor ‘b’ wave which I suspect is not done just yet.
Todays session was a sideways affair,
one more spike into 16.00 again will complete three waves within wave ‘b’.
And then we should see a return lower in wave ‘c’ towrds 15.50 to complete the larger wave (ii).
The minimum target for wave ‘c’ lies at 15.67 the wave ‘a’ low.
Tomorrow;
Watch for wave ‘b’ to finish in three waves at about 16.00.
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S&P 500.
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The S&P pushed another 20 points higher today before halting the rally.
This wave (v) tear has bee a real test of my patience,
it has a completed five wave internal structure,
so we are at the end of this move now.
Its hard to believe there are still buyers at such lofty levels,
I have a hunch there will be a severe case of buyers remorse around
in a months time when wave ‘3’ down is well into its grove!
The options data for the S&P is no less extreme than the DOW,
SPX put volume has plunged to levels not seen since last August.
While the put/call ratio is dipping into that bullish extreme again.
Tomorrow;
The wave structure is complete.
I cant see much upside from here and a drop back below 2675 again will signal the turn has finally arrived.
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