USDJPY on the verge of another big move.

USDJPY

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: Final GDP q/q. USD: Crude Oil Inventories.

The price declined again today as called for by last nights wave count.
The target at 10940 was met, todays low so far reached 109.22.
The declining trend channel suggests one more decline to meet the line once more.
That could happen at about 108.70,
at which point the price would be perilously close to the lower invalidation line at 108.127.

At the moment we have a significant bullish divergence evident in MACD on the 4hr chart.
This is a setup very similar to early April which yielded a 600 point rally!
The wave count is now calling for another significant rally in wave [iii] grey.
And the price is sitting at a higher low with extreme oversold levels on display.
We are on the verge of a big move here if the wave count proves correct.

For tomorrow, watch for signs of a turn up again.
A break of resistance at 110.23 again will be the first sign that the rally has begun.

DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: market topping process ongoing
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Crude Oil Inventories.

It looks like wave '2' blue could be complete at todays lows.
The declines today look corrective and fit well with last nights wave count.
The target for wave '2' was set at 21116, and the low of the day reached 21117!
21117 is also the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level,
so the chances of a new rally in wave '3' are quite good now.

The price has bounced in an impulsive fashion off that low, wave '3' may already be underway.
For tomorrow, watch that low at 21117, it should hold from here.
But any break will simply mean wave '2' is extending in a more complex wave form.
A break of today's high at 21178 will add weight to the idea that wave '3' is underway.

GOLD

30 min

4 Hours

Daily

My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1550
Important risk events: USD: Crude Oil Inventories.

Todays further rally in GOLD has bolstered the idea that wave 'iii' brown is underway.
I have altered the short term count to show todays high as the high of wave '1' pink.

Since calling the low in wave (ii) blue at 1214, the price is now up $80 dollars!
That's not a bad haul in itself, but I think its just the tip of the iceberg for whats to come here.

Now the price has reached the upper trendline of the rising trend channel,
the price should begin to use that upper line as support rather that resistance.
A minor correction in wave '2' pink i now called for,
but the lows at 1277 should support the rally.
A further break of today's high will signal wave '3' pink is underway.